Handicapping NFL Week 3: Picks of the Week

Sometimes, you look at a week and tell yourself, “Something doesn’t feel right.”  (Insert your own sexualized joke here)  The NFL is getting more and more difficult to pick and my spidey senses were correct last week despite not getting over 500.  I wrote that I thought that any underdog could’ve won last week with the exception of Buffalo.  Last week, 10/16 underdogs covered (which in my mind is winning) and 1/6 other games was  push (Houston -3).  So, if you played the favorites last week, I hope you picked 1 of the 5 that covered.

After I wrote my post last week and had to pick my 3 in a pool that uses spreads, I made my 3 picks: Atlanta, Green Bay, and Minnesota, so I went 2-1 there.  I loved the Atlanta game after I looked at it a little more closely, so although I didn’t include it last week on Beargoggles, I was able to take advantage of it.  What is going on in Minnesota?  I’ll tell you what, Mr. Favre, how about a thing we call Training Camp? Maybe you’d get  a little more in sync with your receivers if you practiced more than a week with them.  Now don’t get me wrong, I love seeing them at 0-2.  But when I pick them to cover and I have Berrian as one of my fantasy receivers, I’m a little annoyed.  Love it though!

Green Bay was a no-brainer although I was a little surprised it took to the 2nd half for them to open it up.  Houston’s passing game came alive as predicted and my boy, Andre Johnson, had himself a nice fantasy game.  That was my push, but I’ll take it given the fact that they didn’t even look like they had a chance in the 4th quarter.  If I were in Vegas actually dropping dime on these games, I think I’d look at my pattern and forget about the Upset Special Picks, but I’m not, so I’m determined to right the ship.

You know things aren’t right when you pick an upset special and it is 1/5 underdog teams that week that doesn’t cover….ARRGGHHH!  But how about DA BEARS!  That was  a very pleasant surprise.  I picked them to cover…but win?  Awesome!  So, overall last week, I ended up 2-2-1.  I’ll take a 500 for now, we’re just getting started.

On to Week 3: 

Steelers -3 @ Tampa -So Tampa has beaten Cleveland and Carolina – congratulations on your 2-0 start.  Yes Pittsburgh has not looked like an offensive juggernaut, but their Defense will dominate again.  The Caddy is going to stay parked in the garage and Josh Who will be trying to figure out: how not to turn the ball over and what they can do to stop all of the 3 and outs.  Take the road team giving the points in this one.

Bengals -3 @ Carolina – Carolina has lost to NY Giants and Tampa – congratulations on your 0-2 start.  I made a mistake in Week 1 picking the Bengals as my underdog pick to click.  This week I’ll take them as the road favorite against a Rookie QB.  This is the week we see what the Bengals can do on Offense -I’ll comfortably give 3, even if they are on the road.

….and to complete the Road Favorite trifecta….

49ers (-2.5) @ KC – The Chiefs had a nice win against San Diego in Week 1, but it was in a downpour.  They eeked by Cleveland last week for their 2-0 start.  Along with Tampa (and as much as I’d hate to admit, the Bears) their 2-0 starts are a little bit more of a mirage than a true indicator of how the season will end.  It’s tough to pick against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, but this 0-2 vs 2-0 matchup is a little too much to pass up on.  49ers are better than their record and the Chiefs are worse.

UPSET SPECIAL of the WEEK:

Raiders (+4.5) @ Cardinals – BRUUUUCCCEEEEE!  For those who haven’t been paying attention – this looks like a no-brainer.  Last year, the Cardinals would’ve been favored by double digits, but this is a new year.  The Cardinals are favored because their at home and it is easy to bet against the Raiders.  Now I’m not saying the Raiders are a playoff team, but they should cover 4.5 if not upset the Cardinals straight up.  They were beaten up Week 1 by a good Titan team (last week notwithstanding) and beat the Rams.  They could go to 2-1 this week, but even if they don’t, a field goal looks about right.

The Beloved:

Packers (-3) vs Bears – Sorry, for the first time of the year, I’m going to go against our boys. As excited as I am as a fan about the start, the Bears have beat the Lions and a Cowboys team who isn’t in sync yet.  This has the potential of being a very exciting game, but I have a gut feeling Talk Radio is going to be lit up on Tuesday morning with conversations about how the Bears can’t beat a real team and Dallas lost (the Bears didn’t win) etc. etc.  I’m going to take the Packers in my point pool as well.  I’ll gladly lose to see the Bears start 3-0 and I never root against them even though I may put something the other way.  I hate the Packers.  I hate the Vikings.  Detroit is like an annoying little brother.  I hope they pound them on Monday night, I’m just fearful we’re not there just yet.

Last Week: 3 Picks:  1-1 -1   Upset Special: 0-1     Bears Pick:  1-0

Season: 3 Picks: 3-2-1    Upset Special: 0-2   Bears Pick: 1-1

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Sunday, Oct 2626 Oct1:00at New England PatriotsBuy Tickets

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