Handicapping NFL WEEK 7: Picks of the Week
By Bart
After some weeks, it is nice to sit back and look at the bigger picture of your “betting” overall outcomes. If you were regular bettor in Vegas, this would be imperative to do. Last year when I was in Vegas, I was like a kid in a candy shop and practically bet on not only every game, but almost every over/under as well. That’s okay for a one week blast (especially after being up $1200 for a blackjack table), but not if you want to be a grinder. If I lived in Vegas, I’d be a grinder. My ultimate goal would be to be to win a little money and enjoy the thrill of betting on a couple games a week.
So, what would it look like for me right now? Let’s pretend I’m betting $100 a game (to make the math a little easier). In my 3 picks of the week, I’m 9-7-2. With those bets, I’d be up $130 dollars right now (let’s not forget that I’m losing $10 in juice for every loss…on average). I’m happy with that. I would’ve been invested in 18 football games – even more so than my regular interest. I’m winning money for doing something that I enjoy – watching football. When it comes to upset specials, I’m down $30 dollars (I’m down juice). I’d chalk that off as 9 hours of entertainment – I’m not happy with it, but I’m also not distraught. Lastly, on the Bears, I’m 2-4, basically down $240. So, overall, if I was gambling in Vegas right now – I’d be down $140 dollars. Let’s go back to the beginning of this paragraph -looking at the overall picture. If I were a weekly bettor, I would stop betting on the Bears.
I’d likely also stop with the Upset Special. This doesn’t suprise me, because that is typically what I do anyway. I’m picking an Upset Special and picking the Bears game for the sake of the blog. Picking for or against your favorite team is always going to get blurred by emotion – so STAY AWAY from it with $$$. My other suggestion would be: why pick an upset special? Unless you are getting more money on your wager – just stick with what your are comfortable with – take your top 3. But against my advice…for BEARGOGGLES, I’m going to try to right the ship. On to Week 7:
WEEK 7 PICKS:
Saints -13 vs Cleveland – Saints have found their way…for now….because they are playing another bad team. For the first time this year, I’m taking 2 of the huge favorites. In the back of my mind, my thought is the worst that can happen is that one doesn’t cover and I split. But with all of the factors of the Big 2, I can’t pass them up.
Baltimore -13 vs Buffalo – Another huge mismatch that should be over by half. The Ravens will be seething after disappointing loss to New England last week and will take it out on winless Buffalo.
KC -9.5 vs Jacksonville – I think that I’m a little tainted on this one and I’ll tell you why. As I’ve shared before, I’m in a point pool where you bet against the spreads. The spreads are released on Monday and they stick for the week. Fortunately, at the beginning of the week, KC came out as a 6.5 point favorite. Since then, Jacksonville has had to make it’s move to 3rd String QB, Todd Bouman. As of this Saturday, KC is favored by 9.5. Meaning, in my pool, I’ve picked up 3 points by picking KC – love it! These are the opportunities you wait for. Why I still like it at 9.5? Jacksonville is coming off of a short week and a demoralizing loss. Now, their 3rd string QB has to start in KC having very little reps with the stagnant Jacksonville Offense. I’m all in.
Upset Special of the Week:
Cincinnati +3.5 @ Atlanta – gut call. Something doesn’t seem right about the spread and when I first saw this game, something called out to me.
THE BELOVED:
Bears – 3 vs Washington – They are so hard to call because of their play-calling. Are they going to be more balanced? Is Briggs playing? Will Cutler take 3,5 or 7 step drops? The Bears should (and need to ) win this one on Sunday. Bears usually repond to the “us against them” philosophy and will some way use Washington’s criticism of them earlier this week as a positive. Bears win and cover.
Last Week: 3 Picks: 1-1-1 Upset Special: 0-1 Bears Pick: 0-1
Season: 3 Picks: 9-7-2 Upset Special: 3-3 Bears Pick: 2-4