Handicapping NFL Week 14: Picks of the Week


Quick Summary of Last Week: Another impressive week, I have to admit, going 4-1.  I think I have to have Boomer offer a contest for finding a handicapper somewhere that boasts a better record than 23-11-2 against the spread.  Go ahead people – find it!  Combine all of my efforts, and I’m still 33-23-3.  This may be the last year to get free advice – next year, it will be 1-800-ASK-BART. 

What you do need to do is be cautious when I send mixed signals – as I did last week regarding the Bears game.  In my summary, I encouraged you to not listen to my advice regarding Bears games because emotions and brain power create conflict in my picks.  Then, in my Beloved pick, I told you to ignore me because the Bears were going to blow Detroit out.  Well, that didn’t happen, but in the big picture, a W is a W and that is the most important stat.  Funny, the spread started at 3.5 so if you jumped on it early, you would’ve won. 

My three picks of the week last week and the Upset Special went according to plan.  I knew Green Bay would handle the 49ers on a short week.  Despite Seattle not being great, Carolina is terrible and was not going to beat Seattle at home.  The Atlanta/Tampa Bay game was a good one, I wish that was on tv instead of the Dallas/Indy game, but that one turned out entertaining nonetheless.  Most people wouldn’t have selected a Division game road favorite, but I had a really good feeling about the Falcons.  Plus, Tampa is about a year or two away.  Lastly, Jacksonville was an easy Upset Special last week with the turmoil in Tennessee. Oh well, on to week 14:

WEEK 14 PICKS:

Green Bay -6.5 @ Detroit – I hate to admit it, but Detroit is getting a little too much credit for their first 1/2 against New England and the final score of the Bears game.  I know they hang around, I know final scores have been close, but under a TD is too much to ignore.  (Wouldn’t an upset be great, though?)

Giants -3 @ Viqueens – The Giants are tough to pick because some times they look like world beaters and then the next week you wonder if they switched uniforms with the Panthers.  However, those are the types of teams that are good to jump on because their play keeps spreads lower.  Sure, Vikings are playing better under Frazier, but again, break it down.  They beat Washington and Buffalo.  Percy Harvin will be out again and Peterson is a play away from re-injuring that ankle.  (Giants are 7th against the rush too!).  The Giants will help remind Viking fans why Childress gave Favre a horseeback ride to Minnesota as Jackson folds against a real team.

Falcons -7.5 @ Carolina - I was torn because I also like the Jets at home against Miami on the bounceback, but picking against Carolina helps support the W column.  This spread started at 7 and that 1/2 point may sway people away from taking the birds, but I’m confident enough of a double digit victory against a bad team.  If the Falcons don’t cover, it’s because of a letdown from emotional game last week against the Bucs.  If they want to be the #1 seed in the NFC, they can’t afford letdowns against bad teams.

Upset Special of the Week:

Seahawks +5.5 vs 49ers -there are alot of goofy Upset picks this week – mostly because of weather.  Some teams may win/cover because of low scoring, turnovers, etc.  I’m going to avoid taking a gamble on one of those and simply pick this game because both teams stink and I don’t think that the Seahawks are 5.5 points worse than the 49ers – even on the road.

THE BELOVED:

Bears +1 vs New England -This line has moved 2 points since Monday.  Is Brady out?  Nope. New England linebacker suspended?  Well, yes, but that shouldn’t move a line 2 points.  What could it be?  Ahhh, Chicago weather.  Vegas knows anything can happen with the weather the way it is going to be tomorrow.  I’d like to take the Under to be honest with you (37.5), but I haven’t gone that route on this blog this year.  I’m taking the Bears because I like their Defense and Run Game more than New England.  I don’t know if I would’ve talked about their Run Game prior to the Bye.  However, I personally believe that Martz wanted to spend the beginning of the season working on the Pass game because he wanted the players to learn it before these type of games come on.  I am optimistically thinking that he knew come Domed Playoff games that the Bears would need to run and pass in the playoffs.  So, teach them the Pass in Early Season and teach them the Run later in the Season when weather gets bad.  Interesting thought, eh?  Anyway, I don’t want to pick the Bears because my record is bad, but I really think that they can pull this one out.  I’m looking forward to the game – and when it was Pre-season, I thought I’d be doing something else on my Sundays in December.

Last Week: 3 Picks: 3-0 Upset Special: 1-0 Bears Pick: 0-1

Season: 3 Picks: 23-11-2 Upset Special: 7-5 Bears Pick: 3-7-1

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Friday, Aug 2222 Aug7:00at Seattle SeahawksBuy Tickets