Handicapping NFL Week 3: Picks of the Week

Somewhere, along the line, I blanked out….for an entire 2 weeks.  I’m not quite sure what happened between Week 1 and Week 3, but I’m guessing it had something to do with an excursion to New Orleans for the Bears game last Sunday.  When you spend 5 nights on Bourbon Street, following through with gambling post responsibilities becomes a little difficult.  To be honest with you, I did look at the games last week and didn’t care for many, so it was probably a good week to take off.  Let’s go back to Week 1:

Summary of Week 1:  I had a couple of mistakes in Week 1, but you have to come to expect a 2-3 week every now and again.  Another Simpsons Quote:  “Remember, when you’re right 51% of the time, you’re wrong 49% of the time,”  to which Homer responds, “AHHHH, why didn’t he tell me that?”  My favorite mistake from Week 1 was picking Kansas City over Buffalo.  In Week 1, you have to base alot of your decisions on last year.  When you have an awesome rush team against the worst rush defense, those things don’t change overnight.  But, they sure did and Buffalo also became an offensive juggernaut.  San Diego didn’t cover because of an opening kickoff for a touchdown by Minnesota.  Lastly, my New England pick came in against Miami, on Brady’s stellar performance.  I was a little disappointed in New England’s Defense letting up over 400 yards to Chad Henne.  Seriously?  But when they cover, I forgive easily – but I remember.  The Lions are finally starting to play the way everyone has predicting for about 3-4 years.  That was an easy upset call.  I was glad to see the Bears Win against the Falcons despite picking against them.  That was the best game I’d seen them play only to be foiled by last week’s debacle.  Oh well,  on to Week 3:

PICK 3:

Ravens (-4) vs St. Louis – The Rams are a better team this year and they are not the punching bag they used to be.  The Ravens are coming off of a suprising loss to the Titans last week that was likely fallout from their emotional win over the Steelers in Week 1.  The Ravens will not lose to 2 sub-par teams back-to-back and they come back with a fury to bury the Rams on the road.

Panthers (-3.5) vs Jacksonville – At the beginning of the season, I wouldn’t have touched this game with a 10 foot pole.  However, the Panthers are playing better than their 0-2 record indicates and this is the week that they capture their first victory in front of a home crowd.  Cam continues his unprecedented Rookie QB play.

Lions (-3) vs Minnesota -Yes, I know that this would be predicting a 3-0 start for the Lions, but like I said in Week 1, they were a Stafford away from being a good team.  The fact that he has been upright and healthy for 2 weeks makes a difference in their play and confidence level.  I’m trying to block out their dismantling of KC last week because most people will automatically look at this game and ask, “Why is it only 3 points?”  Well, Detroit doesn’t have a good history in the Metrodome (they’ve lost the last 13 games there!).  I’m going against the trend and predicting their first Metrodome win in 13 years.

UPSET SPECIAL:

Atlanta (+1) vs Tampa Bay -Division games are always tricky and the last time Atlanta was on the road, it didn’t go so well (See Bears vs. Atlanta Week 1).  However, Atlanta is simply the better team and a short jaunt to Tampa won’t take much out of the team for this particular road trip.  This is very similar to the Detroit/Tampa game in Week 1 – same spread too.  Who’s better, Detroit or Atlanta?  That’s what I thought.

The Beloved:

Bears (+3.5) vs Green Bay-This is a good gambling game.  I’d throw a separate bet down that the country is throwing it’s money down on the Packers – why wouldn’t they, they look very good.  However, Bears/Packers game tend to end under 7 due to their knowledge of one another and the fact that the Bears, for some reason, tend to match up pretty good against the Packers.  I am very scared of our safeties this week and watching Rodgers exploit them all day.  But I’m banking on our pressure up front and hoping that Martz can exploit the Green Bay Defense the way the Saints and Panthers have – especially with Collins out.  I’ll take the home underdog getting 3.5 points.  I’ll also take a solid dose of Matt Forte running the ball and receiving some short little screens.

SEASON TOTALS:  PICK 3 (1-2);  UPSET SPECIAL (1-0); BELOVED (0-1);   TOTAL:  (2-3)

 

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