Handicapping NFL Week 13: Picks of the Week


Summary of Last Week:   My struggles re-emerged in an ugly way last week as some typical “gambler” woes occurred.  Let’s start with the Beloved. As I mentioned, the spread started at 5.5.  Had I done my post on Monday, that game would’ve been a cover.  However, since Bears fans tend to “support” their team, the line dropped to 3 by gametime and that one ended up being a loss.  Jacksonville lost by a hook because Mercedes Lewis can’t catch a ball in the end zone when he is wide open.  The score was 7-7 in the 2nd quarter when stud Blaine Gabbert hit Lewis right in the hands while Lewis was sitting having a coffee in the left endzone and he dropped it.  Unbelievable!  Let’s see, what else went wrong.  Well, the Bengals barely escaped beating the dominating Browns.  Look for a one and done out of them in the playoffs if they make it.  Oh yeah, and then there was the Chargers at home against Denver.  I’m done talking about that nonsense.  I tell myself over and over again to stay away from the goofy teams like the Chargers…..but they keep calling me man, keep calling me like Pookie being called to crack in New Jack City.  On the flip side, I also got lucky by a hook in the Atlanta game, but I wrote last week I was surprised it didn’t go to 10 when AP was declared out.  Oh well, season games running out, I have some catch-up to do.  On to Week 13:

Chargers…..no just kidding

Pittsburgh -6.5 vs Cincinnati – last time these 2 teams played in Cinci, Pittsburgh won by 7.  This line is down because Pittsburgh didn’t manhandle KC last week.  Pittsburgh hasn’t played well on the road this year:  they lost to Baltimore and Houston.  They only beat Indy by 3 and KC by 4 on the road.  They did beat AZ by 12 and Cinci by 7.  However, they’re at home this week and Cinci is still biting at their feet in the division.  I always know that division games are closer, but I think that Pitt can win this one by a TD again.

Patriots -20.5 vs Indy -  how can you not pick this one just for the fun of it involved? There have been 13 spreads this high over the past 4 decades.  The underdogs are 7-4-2 against the spread (by the way, in 2007, New England was favored twice by more than 3 Tds – vs Miami (-22) and they won by 21 – didn’t cover and vs. Philadelphia (-24) and they won by 3 – didn’t cover).   The reason I like this game vs. other high spreads, despite 2007 non-covers, is Coach Bill.  There is something in me that thinks he almost likes the challenge of covering as well.  I’m sure he knows that they are 3 TD favorites and wants to prove that it is an appropriate spread.  I’ve written before, New England doesn’t take their foot off the throttle.  They don’t care about you, your team, or your circumstance.  This is going to end up like 35-10.

Falcons -1 vs Houston – now don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t mind seeing Atlanta lose.  But, against 3rd string QB, I don’t see it happening. I’m surprised this is only -1.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Arizona +4.5 vs Dallas: Dallas has lost 6/7 in Arizona.  Theoretically, they should beat Arizona by 4.5, if the good Dallas shows up…..theoretically.

THE BELOVED

Bears-7 vs KC:  I went back to look at KCs schedule since they were a little up and down vs the spread this year.  Well, here is who they have beat this year:  Minnesota, Indy, Oakland, and San Diego.  Feel better?  Me too.  Their “signature” win was in Oakland – that game was really random – they won 28-0.  KC had 6 picks, it was after their bye week, and it was Palmer’s first action in Oakland.  I guess what I’m saying is, I’m not worried about KC and you shouldn’t be either.  Caleb will take care of business today with our running game, special teams, and Defense.

SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (13-17-1); UPSET SPECIAL (4-5); BELOVED (4-5); TOTAL: (21-27-1)