Top NFL picks against the Spread: Handicapping Week 4: Thursday Night

Arghhhh!!!!  I hate the sense of feeling as if something isn’t right and then it shows up in wrong picks against the spread.  I think the NFL parity makes it significantly difficult to bet against the spread on a regular basis.  My problem is that I sometimes don’t heed my own knowledge about games.  For example, 49ers -6.5 at Vikings.  It’s a no-brainer to pick the 49ers.  They’re typically good on the road and the Vikings suck. All they have to do is win by a touchdown with a 6.5 pt spread.  Sometimes, too good to be true is too good to be true.  How on earth they lost though, I mean, what the heck?  Packers? Well we know why they lost and didn’t cover the spread.  Alot of money flipflopped hands on that crazy call.  The Saints losing at home to the Chiefs?  WTH is going on in the NFL this year?  I do know that the coaching makes a significant impact, but losing to the Chiefs?  My Upset Specials continue to come in.  I told you that 9 was  a lot of points to give to that scrappy Bucs team.  Finally, and most importantly, the Bears took care of business.  I’m sick of hearing people say, “Yeah, well they should’ve won against the Rams.”  Enough with that talk.  I think we’ve learned that on a weekly basis, the better team on paper doesn’t always win on Sunday.  A “W” is a “W”, regardless of who its against.  As a fan, stop analyzing and be happy with a “W.” There’s always something that can be better.  Look at it like this, would you rather win against a “crappy” team or be like the 49ers and lose to the Viqueens?

Last Week Pick “3” 0-3    Upset Special 1-0  Beloved 1-0

SEASON: Pick “3 ”  – 3-5-1       Upset Special:  3-0      Beloved:  3-1  Thursday Night 0-1

Browns +12 vs Baltimore -Yes, I can’t believe I just wrote that either, but I have to admit, I’m a little gunshy now with the obvious.  However, let follow my thinking on this one.  Cleveland, despite my beginning of the year wager that they’d win less than 4 games, has remained feisty.  In their last 3 games, they hav lost by 1, 7, and 10.  I know it’s their not all close, but they’re certainly not 12 points.  Division rivals tend to know each other a little better and usually play to closer games than spreads indicate.  I’m thinking that the Ravens give a heavy dose of Ray this week eating up a lot of clock.  Baltimore wins by 10 and doesn’t cover the points.  Low scoring game, like 17-7 or 20-10.

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