TOP NFL Picks Against the Spread: Handicapping Week 6
By Bart
Summary of Last Week
There was a lot of great things that happened last week, unfortunately, the great things weren’t necessarily associated with my picks of the week. I also struggled getting my post in for the Thursday Night game due to work obligations, but I’m looking to get back on track this weekend. Let’s start with the Packers loss. I always say the Packers suck even when they’re great, it’s just part of being a Bears fan. However, I think it is fair to say that they are in a little bit of trouble. They are struggling defensively and teams are starting to slow their “juggernaut” offense. Without a competent run game, teams are able to focus on shutting down the pass and they’ve been doing a pretty good job at that. I’ll have to admit that I was shocked that the Packers lost, even though it was on the road. I would’ve been alright if we just used the halftime score, but as they always say, “That’s why they play 60 minutes!” Baltimore admittedly drives me nuts. I think that’s why I am attracted to them – they’re like the Bears. How do you only put up 9 points against KC? I’m still convinced that the Ravens don’t use Ray Rice appropriately. I learned that when I had Rice on my fantasy team last year. All they need to do is look at their stats when he has 20 carries (or 25, I don’t remember which is the best one). Run Ray right, run Ray left, short pass to Ray right, short pass to Ray left and then hit Bolden. Repeat, then hit Smith. Houston not covering wasn’t as much of a shock, especially on the road. But with the way they’ve been playing, I would just keep gambling on them and you’ll be in the plus at the end. The Broncos had their chance to cover, but dug themselves a little bit too much of hole. I pictured that being more of a, “I score, you score” game and Manning’s stats (31-44, 337yds, 3 TDs) would reflect that, but Denver’s D didn’t hold up as much as I thought they would. Oh well, the most important game was my most confident pick – The Beloved, The Bears. I was a little nervous at halftime, especially after watching the Packers blow it, but it was nice to see some adjustments and that 2nd half throttling. A 1-4 week that wasn’t disappointing due to the Bears Win, Packers Loss, and plenty of fantasy team wins. Time to refocus, onto Week 6 where a bunch of 3.5 and 4 point games exist:
PICK 3
Patriots -3.5 @ Seattle – I get it, Seattle is a tough place to play and NE’s Defense is exactly dominant. However, Offense vs. Offense, Seattle can’t keep up. Pats win by a touchdown, give the points.
Broncos -1 vs San Diego – It’s not easy to win a division game on the road, but that is exactly what is going to happen. The Broncos rebound against a disappointed Chargers team who everyone assumes will be mad about last week’s loss to the Saints. Mad doesn’t win football games, better teams do, most of the time anyway.
Falcons -9.5 vs Oakland –If this was on the road like Houston/Jets was last week, I’d be more nervous about the 9.5. However, the Falcons are home, playing exceptionally well, and will beat Oakland on both sides of the ball. This is the highest spread of the week and there’s a reason for it.
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
Browns +1 vs Cincinnati –There are a lot of possibilities this week for upsets or at least covers. I’m actually surprised to see the 49ers favored by 6.5 over the Giants. However, the Browns have to win one game this year, right? This is the week it happens. They’re at home against a division foe they typically battle with. The Browns have been putting up points (27, 16, 14, 27, 16), so they can score. This should be the week they have more than the other team.
The BELOVED
They’re on a bye – is this one of those weeks they’ll pick up .5 game on their 3 division opponents (Min @ Wash, GB @ Hous, Det @ Philly)? Still alot of football to watch as a Bears Fan!
Weekly Picks: Pick “3” 0-3 Upset Special 0-1 Beloved 1-0 Thursday Night: Missed wager
SEASON: Pick “3 ” – 6-8-1 Upset Special: 3-2 Beloved: 4-2 Thursday Night 1-2