Top NFL Picks Against the Spread: Handicapping Week 11: Sunday

I told you that the Miami/Buffalo game was a coin flip.  It all came down to the last drive and easily could’ve ended up going Miami’s way.  I’ll take it because it put me back up over 500 for the year.  It’s getting to be an exceptionally exciting time for football.  There are many games with playoff implications and games that I can sit and watch all day. Who would’ve thought that both the Patriots and the Colts would be 6-3 at this point.  The rivalry continues with Luck at the helm.  The Lions and Packers square up in Detroit.  If the Lions lose, you can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.  They could do the Bears a big favor today.  Green Bay is only favored by 3 which means Vegas thinks this is going to be an interesting one (I’m unfortunately taking the Packers).  The forever disappointing Chargers are going into Denver and are 8.5 point dogs.  As disappointing as they are, this division game has the makings of playoff game in that the Chargers theoretically are still alive with how weak the AFC is.  How could you not love a Sunday Night Baltimore/Pittsburgh game?  Lastly, the Beloved vs 49ers?  Hello NFC championship match-up!  I don’t think I need to spell out the importance of that one.  Oh well, let’s talk point spreads:

PICK 3

Cleveland +9 vs Dallas – I’ve shared my rooting interest all year about wanting Cleveland to win less than 5 games over the course of the year.  I don’t think that they are going into Dallas and stealing one, but they’re not going to lose by double digits.  Cleveland is scrappy and will make this a game – especially because these are the types of games Dallas will want to try to give away.

Green Bay -3 vs Detroit -I want desperately for this not to happen, but I don’t see it.  A couple of things need to happen for Detroit to win/cover.  Their “high-powered” offense needs to click.  Calvin needs to have one of his monster games.  Detroit needs to be able to run the ball well to set up their pass.  Their Defense needs to slow up Rodgers.  It will be a fun game, but one that I think will turn out in the Packers favor because that is just too many variables to rely on the Lions to do.

San Diego -8.5 vs Denver -too many points for a division game.  I can’t stand the Chargers and their underachieving, but this ends up being a 3-6 point game as the Chargers make their infamous late season, “too-late” surge.

UPSET SPECIAL

Carolina +1 vs. Tampa Bay - I’m going out on a limb on this one.  This one has the all the makings to upset a lot of gamblers across the country.  Looks like a no-brainer.  Tampa (5-4) has been pretty hot (going for 4th straight win) and has an outside shot at a wildcard.  Freeman and Martin are getting noticed and things are on the up-and-up for the Bucs.  The last time these 2 teams met, the Bucs walked away with a 16-10 victory.  Something doesn’t feel right to me with this one with the Panthers at home and underdogs by 1.  Something says trap, so I’ll take a gamble on it and call it that way.

The Beloved

 49ers -1 vs Bears -I’m not quite sure that is the official spread because it is off the “board” as far as Sunday morning goes.  The 49ers were favored by a point earlier in the week.  When you have a 2nd String QB (Campbell) going possibly against Kaepernick (would be first NFL start), you never quite know what is going to happen. Vegas is likely waiting to see whether or not Smith plays before setting a line, and that could be Monday afternoon. The Bears would need a Defensive TD in this one to pull it out, but I’m guessing the 49ers are going to be playing it real safe and don’t design anything to give it to the Bears.  Look for a heavy dosage of Gore and short passes to Gore and a low scoring game; I’m guessing about 13-10.  The Bears can definitely win this, but Tice really has to start getting a little more creative with his play-calling for that to happen.  Here’s to hoping it happens, but in the meantime, I’ll go the other way and will be happy to be wrong.

Thursday Result: 1-0

SEASON: Pick  3:   11-15-1     Upset Special:  6-2-1      Beloved:  4-4-1   Thursday Night 3-2-1  =  24-23-4

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