Fantasy Football Week 16: Start’em / Sit’em

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Last week: 18-11-2: Season: 183-136-44

Week 14 Recap: Maybe I should just write a sit’em column. Like usual I was more accurate with my sit’em recommendations (11-2) than my start’em picks (7-9). My pick to bench all your Giants (Brown, Cruz, Nicks) was on the money as they all substantially under-performed their projected totals. Michael Floyd, Bobby Rainey, Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, and Harry Douglas were all disappointments as predicted. The only two I missed on were Cutler, who was the beneficiary of some great catches by Marshall / Jeffery, and T-Rich, who got more carries than usual because of a Donald Brown injury.

My start’em picks weren’t as good, but I doubt many other pundits told you to start Matt Flynn (+17)! My Matt Ryan (-7), Shane Vereen (-12), Chris Ogbonnaya (-6), and Dennis Pitta (-7) picks weren’t so hot, but I got a few right including Colston (+10), S-Jax (+7), C. Patterson (+5), and Delanie Walker (+9).

If your Shiva hopes are still alive check out my start’em / sit’em picks this week. Based on recent performance, you may want to pay a little more attention to the sit’em picks.

Note: Only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues will be listed in Start’em section. These recommendations are for players you may be on the fence about that I think will over (Start) or under (Sit) perform their projections (Yahoo).

Start’em

QB

Ben Roethlisberger @GB (30%,19): He’s been inconsistent this year, but everyone is throwing on GB lately and I think this will be a shoot-out.

Jay Cutler @PHI (20%,19): Was rusty in the first half of his first game back from injury, but looked great in the 2nd half and should have a big day against the Eagles pass D that is just a little better than the last ranked Cowboys.

Kirk Cousins @DAL (7%,18): After watching Josh McCown account for 5 TDs against the Cowboys, I am starting any QB who faces them the rest of the way. They are really bad. Last week was no different, the Cowboys gave up 299 yards and 4 TDs to Matt  Flynn and his noodle-arm.

RB

Gio Bernard MIN (51%, 13): Been quiet lately and I think he’s due for a breakout game. Playing Minnesota’s 31st ranked defense should help.

Shane Vereen @BAL (51%,11): Disappeared last week (4 points), but still had 7 targets in the passing game. With no Gronk and injuries to Dobson & Thompkins, the Pats are short on reliable weapons and I think they go out of their way to get Vereen involved.

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Ryan Mathews OAK (39%,12): Has 29 carries in each of the last two games and Charger coaches are saying that will continue. I never thought Matthews would turn into a workhorse back, but it seems to be happening and he has a great match-up this week against a Raiders team giving up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

Dennis Johnson DEN (4%,10): Gets the start this week with Tate out (rib) and while he might not get a lot of carries once the Texans fall behind, he should get plenty of dump off passes and rack up some garbage time fantasy points.

Montee Ball @HOU (22%,9): I expect Denver to be up big early in this one and think they will take the opportunity to rest Moreno. A big lead and less Moreno could mean 20+ touches for Ball this week.

WR

Marques Colston @Car (67%,12): Averaging 13 targets per game over the last two and one of those was against Carolina in week 14. Colston looks quicker lately than he has all year and I’m expecting another solid game.

TY Hilton@KC (53%,11):  The Colts backed up their talk last week and made a point to get Hilton the ball early and often. He tied his season high with 12 targets and would have had more if the game wasn’t a rout early.

Michael Crabtree ATL (25%,10):He’s looked more comfortable every game since returning from injury in week 13. I expect Kaepernick to keep getting him the ball to re-establish their chemistry from last year before the playoffs.

Kendall Wright @JAX (36%,11): 20 targets last week! Wright has only had 2 games with under 50 yards receiving all year. He’s a safe start with upside.

Cordarrelle Patterson CIN (25%,8): Has a TD in each of the last three games, the Vikings are making sure he gets close to 10 touches a game, and he has game-breaking speed. Patterson has a 20+ fantasy game coming before the end of the season.

TE

Delanie Walker @JAX (34%,10): Take away week 14,when Walker got hurt in the 1st quarter, and he is averaging 9.5 targets per game over the last four. Walker is Fitzpatrick’s safety valve and the Jags give up the 2nd most points to TEs.

Martellus Bennett @PHI (44%,9):Finally healthy and Cutler looks his way more often than McCown did. The Eagles are stingy vs TEs, but this should be a high scoring match-up and I’m betting Bennett finds the end zone Sunday night.

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