Fantasy Football – Rookie QB Breakdown
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4.) Tom Savage, Texans:
Playing time – He’s 25 years old which makes him only a year younger than Texans back-up Case Keenum. The Texans signed Ryan Fitzpatrick in the off-season, presumably to be the starter but he hasn’t had consistent success anywhere. Keenum might be next in line, but the Texans brought in Fitzpatrick to start over him despite his flashes of success last season. When Fitzpatrick inevitably struggles, the Texans may give Savage a shot before Keenum if he shows some flashes during training camp and pre-season. That could leave the door open for Savage to get a shot as the Texans starter long-term.
Fantasy outlook – If Savage plays, he has some potential fantasy value. Savage has a huge arm, possibly the best rookie arm after Mettenberger, and the Texans have enough weapons for Savage to have some big games. Keenum had multiple games with 20+ fantasy points and I think Savage has considerably more talent than Keenum. By that logic, Savage could have 20+ point potential if he gets a shot. He’s starting at #3 on the depth chart so it’s a big if, but he’s a high upside player if he gets a chance.
Fantasy value – Re-Draft: $1, Keeper: $3
Draft him ahead of – NA
5.) Blake Bortles, Jaguars:
Playing time – The Jags have been adamant about Chad Henne being the starter this year, and I think that’s the right call. From the beginning of my pre-draft scouting process it was clear to me that Bortles was the farthest away from being NFL ready of the top 4 rookie QBs. He has potential to eventually be the best with his combination of size, durability, athleticism, and arm strength, but he’s not there yet. Starting Henne for a year or even two is the best way to get Bortles ready. That being said, a Henne injury will put Bortles on the field whether he’s ready or not. If the Jags are terrible again, Bortles could see some time the last few weeks of the season to see how close he is to being ready.
Fantasy outlook – Even if Bortles gets some time to play late in the season, I don’t think he is ready to be an impact fantasy player. If Henne were to get hurt early, then maybe Bortles is a mediocre fantasy option by the end of the year, but I would stay away until 2015 at the earliest. For long-term leagues he is worth a spot at the end of your bench and some patience because the Jags could have a dynamic, fantasy-worthy offense in 2015/2016 with the pair of dynamic receivers they drafted in round 2 this year (Lee, Robinson).
Auction value – Re-draft $1, Keeper $5
Draft him ahead of – NA
6.) Garrett Gilbert, Rams:
Playing time – The Rams have been saying all the right things about Sam Bradford, but in reality he hasn’t come close to living up to his draft status. His career numbers are pedestrian (58% comp, 59 TDs / 38 INTs) and he’s missed 15 games over the last four years. The Rams do have a solid back-up on the roster in Shaun Hill, but he’s nothing but a stop-gap solution. With Bradford in the last year of his massive contract, the Rams need to decide if he is the long-term answer. If he doesn’t play well this season, Gilbert may get a shot to prove what he can do.
Fantasy outlook – I gave Gilbert a 4th round grade so I am higher on him than just about any other site I saw. The former 5-star recruit didn’t play up to his potential until last year. In 2013 Gilbert was leading the nation in passing efficiency before a knee injury (67%, 3258 yards, 21 TDs, 136.2 rating) derailed his season. He has ideal size, athleticism and arm strength for an NFL QB and seemed to put it all together last year. Gilbert had an excellent pro day as well, completing 87 of 88 passes and showing good zip on the ball. If he can continue to play like he has the last year, Sam Bradford could have a fight on his hands for the #1 QB job. Gilbert is an ideal $1 lottery pick, he has plenty of upside and there is no risk if Bradford keeps the job.
* From this point on every player has $1 value and is a long-shot for any fantasy impact.
7.) Aaron Murray, Chiefs:
Playing time – Alex Smith is in the last year of his contract and negotiations for an extension have been going poorly. If Smith isn’t the long-term future at QB and with only little Chase Daniel and in-accurate Tyler Bray in front of him on the depth chart, I wouldn’t be surprised if Murray is in the mix for the Chiefs QB job in 2015. If it looks like Smith will test free agency, they might give Murray some snaps this season to see what they have.
Fantasy outlook – I thought Murray was the 6th best QB in the draft and had him graded as a late 2nd – early 3rd rounder. He’s a poor man’s Drew Brees and could surprise this year if given a chance to play. He’s a little under-sized (6’1, 210), but has the arm strength to make all the throws, can run a little, is very accurate, and outside of Bridgewater, Murray is the best rookie at throwing receivers open. I think Murray could be the Chiefs starter by 2015 and if so he has the skills to be a relevant fantasy QB. Murray has little to no value for 2014, but could be worth a stash in keeper leagues.
8.) Derek Carr, Raiders:
Playing time – I think Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie, who was Director of Personnel with the Packers when they drafted Rodgers, is sold on the idea of keeping a rookie QB on the bench for a year or two so he has time to develop before taking over. It worked pretty well with Rodgers. The Raiders just signed Matt Schaub this off-season to be their starter and I think he will have a long leash. Schaub was a pretty good QB before his melt-down last season and I think he will be at least mediocre as a starter for the Raiders. Unless Schaub still has the yips or he gets hurt, I don’t think Carr will see anything except garbage time in 2014.
Fantasy outlook – None for this season barring injury but I could see him taking over as early as 2015, so if you are in a keeper league with a deep bench he might be worth a $1.
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9.) Tahj Boyd, Jets:
Playing time – Personally I don’t think Geno Smith is any good and I think Mike Vick is washed up, which is the primary reason Boyd is this high on the list. Regardless of who wins the #1 job, I don’t think either guy is even a mid-tier NFL starter. If I’m wrong on either, Boyd probably won’t see a snap this season. If I’m not, by week 8-9 Rex Ryan is going to be frustrated with his incompetent QBs and debating giving a known winner like Boyd a shot. Ryan has his flaws as a coach, but lack of guts isn’t one of them. If Smith and Vick aren’t getting it done, I think Ryan will give Boyd a chance.
Fantasy outlook – All Boyd did in college was win and that will be in the back of Rex Ryan’s head as he watches Geno and Vick throw picks and tuck and run when they should stay in the pocket. At first glance, Boyd doesn’t look like a starting NFL QB (short, chubby) but he produced at a very high level in college (107 TDs, 37 INTs) and plenty of players have defied physical archetypes to have successful NFL careers. I’m not saying that Boyd is one of those guys, but I’m not saying he’s not either. What I am saying is that I think Boyd will get a chance to play this season and he just might be better than Geno and Vick. It’s just a gut call, but I think he’s going to surprise people and be a decent NFL QB. The Jets have some actual weapons this year (Decker, Chris Johnson, Amaro) and whoever is under center could put up respectable stats in 2014.
10.) David Fales, Bears:
Playing time – I really hope Cutler makes it through the season without getting hurt, but it hasn’t happened in a few years. Jordan Palmer is technically the back-up, but Fales is already getting praise from coaches for how fast he is picking up the offense. Fales will have to beat out Jordan Palmer for the back-up job if he’s going to see the field this season. Unlike most veteran back-ups, Palmer has only taken 28 NFL snaps so he barely has more game experience than Fales and as a former 6th round pick (like Fales) doesn’t have overwhelming physical gifts. I think Fales has a legitimate shot to beat out Palmer for the #2 job. If Cutler gets hurt early in the year I think Palmer will get the call, but if the opportunity comes around mid-season or later I think Fales will be ready by then and get the first chance to take over for Cutty.
Fantasy outlook – I thought Fales was a 4th round talent in this year’s draft and he probably would have gone a round or two higher most years in drafts with normal depth. Fales doesn’t have a cannon arm or any physical traits that stand out, but he has great pocket awareness, accuracy and all the intangibles you want in a QB. After what HC Marc Trestman did for journeyman Josh McCown, it’s possible Fales could have similar success if he is given a chance to play this year. For dynasty purposes, Cutler isn’t going anywhere but Fales should have the #2 job wrapped up no later than 2015.
11.) Keith Wenning, Ravens:
Playing time – Flacco is durable and under contract for a long time and a lot of money, so barring an injury Wenning won’t see the field for a couple of years. If Flacco does get hurt though… current back-up Tyrod Taylor is a bad idea. He’s not a good fit for the Raven’s scheme and really nothing more than a wildcat QB. Wenning has a very similar profile and skill-set to Flacco and it would be a smoother transition to replace Flacco with Wenning instead of Taylor. The potential problem would be whether Wenning can pick up the offense fast enough to take over this season. Flacco is a long-shot to get hurt, but stranger things have happened. If Wenning isn’t the primary back-up this year, he will be by 2015.
Fantasy outlook – Wenning was my favorite small school QB in the draft. He has good size (6’3, 218), an NFL arm, and very good ball velocity. Wenning had a great senior year showing good accuracy (64%) and excellent decision-making (35 TDS, 7 INTs, 154.4 rating) albeit against sub-par competition. Flacco hasn’t had any injury issues yet, but it only takes one hit and if it happens I think Wenning could surprise if given the chance.
12.) Jeff Matthews, Falcons:
Playing time – I actually compared Matthews to a poor man’s Matt Ryan in my scouting reports and had him going to ATL in my latest mock (I was a round off). Ryan has been durable despite getting killed last year behind a terrible Falcons O-line, but they have nothing backing him up (Domanique Davis, Sean Renfree). Matthews is smart enough to pick up the offense quickly, so if Ryan were to go down during the season Matthews should see the field as the back-up.
Fantasy outlook – Matthews, from Cornell, is a tall cerebral QB with ideal size, a big arm, good accuracy, and leadership potential (3-time captain). The main problems are that he’s a statue in the pocket and hasn’t played against anything close to NFL competition coming from the Ivy league. The Falcons O-line should be improved with the addition of T Jake Matthews, G Jon Asamoah, and G Gabe Carimi (joking) so they might be able to keep Matthews clean enough to put up a decent fantasy line if he gets a chance to play.