Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs (Part 1)

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

2nd Tier: Elite Potential 

With a little luck any of these guys could end up in the top 5 overall RBs this year. With Murray and Foster it is a question of staying healthy, with Lynch it’s a matter of fighting off a couple of talented youngsters who want his job next year and with Ball it’s whether he can stay healthy and keep his job as the #1 RB. Ball is talented, but it’s more his situation that makes him a potential elite fantasy back. I think just about anyone  (except maybe Ced Benson) could be elite lining up next to Peyton Manning.

6.) DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Two players tied for 1st in yards per touch last year, McCoy and DeMarco Murray. Much has been written about the Cowboys terrible defense and it’s all true. They will need to score 30+ to compete this year and Murray will be a big part of that. After drafting Zach Martin in the 1st round this year, the Cowboys may have the best O-line in the NFL and Murray is the clear #1 RB. Murray has had some injury issues in his career, but only missed 2 games last year. He is in his prime at 26 and has the talent (4.9 career ypc) to be a top-tier back if he can stay on the field for a full season.

7.) Arian Foster, Texans – Foster has had double-digit TDs and over 1,500 total yards three of the last four years and was on his way there last season before getting hurt in week 7. Foster’s TD numbers were down last year with only 2 in 6 games but he was on pace for over 1,900 total yards before getting hurt. There is a new offensive scheme in Houston which may not be as perfect of a fit as their previous zone scheme and Foster still hasn’t practiced due to a hamstring injury, but he has been the most productive back in fantasy from ’10-’12 and is still only 27 years old. I think he is undervalued at his current ADP ($46, 2nd round).

8.) Montee Ball, Broncos – Ball’s appendectomy is a blessing in disguise as his ADP has dropped a few spots in Yahoo leagues (10.4) even though he isn’t projected to miss any regular season time. Before his surgery the Broncos coaching staff was raving about his improved pass-blocking ability and receiving skills out of the backfield. Any RB that lines up next to Peyton Manning has first round potential and a guy with Balls’ natural skill-set could put up monster numbers as the Broncos lead back. Keep talking up Ronnie Hillman to your buddies, but make sure you end up with Ball on your roster. Knowshon Moreno finished with just under 1600 yards last year and 13 TDs; Ball is a more talented RB and could crush those numbers if healthy.

9.) Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – I’m usually cautious about backs with over 300 touches the previous season and Lynch has had 300+ three seasons in a row. Eventually he has to break down right? Maybe Skittles are the anathema to the 300 rule or maybe Lynch is just a freak. Either way the odds of Lynch beating the odds a 4th year in a row aren’t great, more so when you consider that Seattle has all but admitted that they are releasing Lynch after the season. If he isn’t part of the future they can ride him till he breaks or cut his workload to let next year’s probable starter (Turbin or Michael) get acclimated to the speed of the NFL.  If I had to bet, I think Lynch’s touches are down but are still close enough to 300 to have top 10 fantasy value.

3rd Tier: RB2 with Upside

Young backs who showed flashes of elite potential last season but weren’t consistent enough to warrant a first round grade. For some it is a matter of not enough touches (Gio, Ellington) and others not quite enough talent (Bell, Stacy). Little factors like more touches, a better O-line, or a better grasp of the offense could make all the difference and vault these guys into the top 10 in fantasy value.

10.) Le’Veon Bell, Steelers – His 3.5 ypc last year is turning a lot of fantasy owners off and that’s understandable, but ypc doesn’t exist in a vacuum. You know who else averaged 3.5 ypc as a rookie? Walter Payton. I’m not comparing Bell to Payton, but even talented running backs can struggle with no blocking in front of them. Bell was a beast at MSU, has good size even by NFL standards (6’1, 244) and has surprising wiggle for his size finishing 12th overall among RBs in tackles avoided and in the middle of the pack in elusiveness rating (18th)¹.  Bell is also a natural receiver out of backfield, a fierce blocker, and a guy without much competition for carries unless you think LeGarrette Blount is anything more than a short yardage back. If Pittsburgh’s line is improved, don’t be surprised to see Bell finish in the top 10 RBs overall.

11.) Gio Bernard, Bengals – It was frustrating watching Gio lose carries to BJGE (220 carries!), who may have been the least effective running back in the NFL last year (-11.4% DVOA). Gio is one of the most explosive backs in the league, but no one knows what the RB carry distribution will look like under new OC Hue Jackson. Gio only had 126 last year (just over half of what BJGE had!) and still finished 15th overall in RB fantasy points. The Bengals are talking about increasing his carries while also giving him more reps as a receiver. As long as his touches increase as expected, Gio has a good chance to finish in the top 10 overall RBs.

12.) Andre Ellington, Cards – I own Ellington for $1 in a couple of keeper leagues, so I really hope the 20-25 touches that HC Bruce Arians talked about a few weeks ago is real, but I’m not holding my breath. Last year Arians made it clear that he didn’t think Ellington could hold up if he got more than 15 touches a game. I know Arians’ is old but I don’t think he completely forgot that statement or that in 6 months Ellington has transformed into a bell-cow back. He will still be valuable with 15-20 touches, but expecting much more than that is wishful thinking. Ellington’s advanced stats show that he wasn’t a fluke; He finished 5th in elusiveness rating and surprisingly 2nd in yards after contact per attempt (PFF). Unfortunately he’s not a between the tackles RB and the Cards brought in power back Jonathon Dwyer to handle short-yardage & goal line duty and they already have power-back Stephan Taylor on the roster. Ellington has a shot to deliver top 10 value, he’s that good, but top 5 will be a stretch unless Cards coaches give him 20+ touches a game.

13.) Zac Stacy, Rams – Came out of nowhere last year to be a fantasy weapon. There aren’t many 25 carry power backs left in the league, so it was refreshing to see an old school type back like Stacy. It’s not a surprise that Jeff Fisher gave him a shot since he has a history of preferring power backs (Eddie George, Chris Brown, LenDale White). That being said, Fisher had no problem putting 4th stringer Stacy in the lineup when his first 3 RBs struggled. If Stacy struggles out of the gate this year, current 4th stringer Tre Mason is very talented RB and may take the job and own it the rest of the season. As good as Stacy was (8 TDs) he only averaged 3.9 ypc but with an improved Rams line this year (Greg Robinson, Scott Wells) whoever has the job this season could be a fantasy beast.