Fantasy Football Week 5: Start’em / Sit’em

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Last week: 21-13-1, Season: 74-45-8 (62%)

Week 4 Recap: Another solid week overall, but I had a couple of huge misses. I apologize for my recommendations to sit Eli Manning (+16), Matt Asiata (+13), and Reggie Wayne (+11). Who would have thought Eli had a 30 point game coming after looking lost the first three weeks? The Vikings offensive output (41 points) was another shocker; I still think McKinnon is the better RB, but as long as Asiata is getting the goal line work he’s worth a spot in your lineup. I was actually wrong on all three of my Colts picks, with Andrew Luck spreading the ball around it is impossible to predict which of his weapons will have a big week and besides Wayne I also missed on Fleener (+3) and T-Rich (+7). For the record that is the first time I have ever been wrong sitting Richardson. If the Colts keep blowing people out, then T-Rich will get the garbage time carries but he’s still a weekly sit.

Overall my Sit’em picks were pretty weak (7-8). I already covered my mistakes, but I was right on a couple high-profile picks like keeping Tom Brady on the bench (-14) and giving Antonio Gates a week off (-11). My decisions to sit Joique Bell (-6) against a strong Jets defense, Cecil Shorts III (-9) until he proves himself, and Justin Hunter (-7) until he’s traded all turned out pretty good.

I had a lot more success with my Start’em picks last week (14-5-1) which is unusual since it’s normally the other way around. Philip Rivers (+10), Romo (+9), and the rookie Teddy Bridgewater (+9) all well exceeded their projected QB points, but I was fooled badly by Kirk Cousins’ 427 yard debut the week before and he was a disaster this week (-10).  I went 6-0 on my RB picks which I don’t think has ever happened before, with Jerick McKinnon (+14) being my best choice. It was a mixed bag the rest of the way with the standout picks being TEs Martellus Bennett (+8) and Travis Kelce (+11). Both TEs are every week starts moving forward.

Before I get to my picks this week, I want to throw in a quick anecdote that is closely related to this column and also some fantasy advice. In two leagues last week I played a team that benched Andrew Luck for Kirk Cousins in one league and Jay Cutler in the other. Don’t let match-ups dictate your starting lineup, if you have a guy that is a top 5 player at his position then he should be in your starting lineup every week regardless of his match up or projected points. For example you can bench a RB2/3 like Joique Bell against the Jets fierce run D, but you don’t bench a RB1 like LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray ever. Those two teams made the mistake of benching a top 5 fantasy QB because of the seemingly tough Titans D in favor of less talented players with presumably easier match ups against the Giants and Packers. Luck outscored both Cutler and Cousins combined.

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If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.

If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week and go Bears!

Start’em

QB

Jay Cutler, @CAR (58%, 17) – Gone are the days when Carolina’s defense struck fear in the hearts of fantasy owners, they are giving up the 10th most points to fantasy QBs and have been picked apart in consecutive weeks by Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco. Cutler has had basically 2 bad quarters in 4 games; He is improved this year and I think he’s in for a big fantasy line on Sunday.

Philip Rivers NYJ (55%, 17) – The Jets run defense in the best in the league, but their pass defense might be the 2nd worst (ahead of the Jags obviously). Rivers is on a roll and should be airing it out because they won’t be able to run the ball.

Tony Romo HOU (44%, 14) – Since the 2nd half of the Rams game in week 3, Romo has been on a tear (5 TDs, 0 INTs) and I think Houston’s defense is a bit overrated due to their extremely weak schedule so far. I see Romo putting up between 20-25 fantasy points at least.

Russell Wilson @WAS (34%, 17) – After what Eli Manning did to the Skins defense last week, its hard not to like Wilson’s chances of putting up 20 plus in this one. The Seahawks still aren’t throwing much but Wilson has been very efficient and pitches in a few rushing yard points every week.

Ben Roethlisberger @JAX (29%, 17) – There isn’t a QB in the league that I wouldn’t start vs the Jags right now. Roethlisberger is on a 5 TD / 0 INT streak over his last two games and could have easily had 2 more TDs if they weren’t dropped. I think Ben is a lock for 20+ fantasy points this week. I would start him over Brady, Kaepernick, and Newton.

RB

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Andre Ellington @DEN (64%, 12) – After the bye week, Ellington should be closer to 100% than he’s been all season. The Cards have little to no depth behind him, so I expect he’ll get enough touches to put up a solid fantasy line of 15+.

Doug Martin @NO (63%, 11) – Looked the same old mediocre Martin is his first week back, but the Saints can be run on and Martin has the starting gig back. I think he will get enough carries to put up a useful line.

Ahmad Bradshaw BAL (63%, 10) – He hasn’t been playing much because the Colts have been in blowouts the last two games and they will rest Bradshaw when they can. This week should be a closer match-up with the Ravens in town and the Colts would be dumb to play T-Rich over Bradshaw when it matters.

Zac Stacy @PHI (50%, 10) – The Eagles D can be run on (12th most RB points allowed) and the Rams like to run the ball. Sometimes it’s that simple and I expect a decent fantasy line for Stacy this week.

Bishop Sankey CLE (17%, 8) – It looks like the Titans are finally giving up on the Shonn Greene experiment and are going to start giving Sankey more touches. He’s averaged 5.9 yards per carry over the last two games and could do some damage against a bad Browns run defense. I’m starting him as my Flex in a couple of leagues for the first time all year (over Tate, Gerhart, Robinson).

Jerick McKinnon @GB (9%, 8) – Finally got a chance to show what he can do last week and didn’t disappoint (18-155). Vikings HC Mike Zimmer claims that Asiata is still the main guy, but did say that McKinnon reps should increase. I could see him breaking a long one or two against a suspect Packers run D that just gave up 243 rushing yards to the Bears.