Fantasy Football Week 7: Start'em / Sit'em

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Last week: 19-13-3, Season: 90-58-14 (61%)

Week 6 Recap: Another decent week (60%), but I had a couple big misses as a few players that had struggled most of the year had breakout games. Cam Newton had been one of the worst fantasy QBs in the league before his 39 point breakout last week (+22), Colin Kaepernick had his best game of the year (+13), Larry Fitzgerald scored his first TD of the season (+7) and Tom Brady looked like it was 2012 again (+17). At least I called one of them (Brady).

My Start’em picks were accurate (13-7-1) with Brandon Oliver (+12), Antone Smith (+13), Mohammed Sanu (+12), DeSean Jackon (+10), Brady (+17), and Jordan Cameron (+10) being my best picks, while I had significant misses on all three Giants (Eli Manning -10, Andre Williams -6, Odell Beckham -4), DeAndre Hopkins (-8), and the always disappointing Doug Martin (-5).

I struggled with my Sit’em picks (6-6-2) for the 2nd week in a row, missing on all my WR picks except Cordarrelle Patterson (-5) and Allen Hurns (-9). I already mentioned my QB misses (Newton, Kaepernick) and also missed on Lamar Miller who I expected to lose more carries to Knowshon Moreno. My best Sit’em calls were Zac Stacy (-7) and Steven Jackson (-10) and they are both on the list again this week.

A few other fantasy notes from week 6:

– WR Odell Beckham disappointed in week 6, but with Victor Cruz out for the season, I think Beckham is a solid FLEX play right now and has WR2 upside by the end of the season. His skill set is a perfect fit for the Giants quick pass offense and they are already talking about putting Beckham in the slot which would maximize his potential.

– I warned you to leave Patriots RB Stevan Ridley alone last week and I will extend the same warning to whoever replaces Ridley as the primary ball carrier this week in New England. HC Bill Belichick is notoriously fickle with his RBs and it almost seems like he is just screwing with fantasy owners by drastically shifting the carry distribution on a weekly basis.

– Joe Flacco put up a career high 42 points this week mostly in the first half. Don’t go crazy trying to acquire Flacco, the Falcons put up 56 on the Bucs through 2 & a half quarters in week 3 and they aren’t a good team. The Bucs are a mess and Flacco did a good job taking advantage of that, but at this point in his career he isn’t all of a sudden turning into Peyton Manning. If you had him on your roster for some reason, trade him ASAP.

– Cam Newton‘s 39 points was 2nd only to Joe Flacco in week 6, but it was the first week this season that he’s had over 20 fantasy points or over 20 rushing yards (107). Maybe he’s finally healthy and will go back to running the football or maybe they were exploiting a hole in the Bengals normally strong defense. I honestly don’t know, Newton looked terrible just a week ago against the Bears. I’d start him against GB this week but don’t trade your backup QB until Newton shows his running wasn’t a fluke.

– If you have RB Ryan Matthews on your roster, you might want to try and trade him. Talk up the fact that starters don’t lose their jobs due to injury… Maybe that will work, but probably not if they saw RB Brandon Oliver play the last two weeks. Oliver had another 100 yard+ game, 4 catches again, another touchdown and his second consecutive 20+ fantasy game. Ryan Matthews still hasn’t been cleared to run so Oliver is looking like the man at least until after the Chargers bye in week 10.

Start’em

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Jay Cutler MIA (67%, 18) – Even in his three multiple interception games, Cutler has exceeded fantasy expectations. He’s coming off his best game of the year and the Dolphins can be thrown on if the Bears O-line can keep Cutler clean. The Dolphins also don’t have a CB over 5’11, so the Bears have a significant size advantage with Jeffrey, Marshall, and Bennett.

Drew Brees @DET (59%, 15) – It’s been a disappointing year for Brees, but the Saints are coming off a bye and I think the Lions #1 rated defense has more to do with a weak schedule then a group of DBs going from awful last year to great this year. I think this is Brees’ bounce-back game.

Russell Wilson @STL (53%, 16) – Coming off his worst fantasy game of the year (10 points), but the Rams pass defense has given up the 9th most fantasy points to QB and I think Wilson will bounce back with a big game this week.

Joe Flacco ATL (22%, 15) – I’m not a long-term believer in Flacco as I mentioned above, but the Falcons defense is really bad and I could see Flacco putting up a solid 20+ fantasy line again this week.

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Ben Tate @JAX (69%, 13) – The Browns are averaging 32.8 rush attempts per game and Tate has looked quick and decisive the last two weeks. The Jags run defense is awful (5th worst) and I think Tate has another big game this week.

Fred Jackson MIN (59%, 11) – He’s averaged 6 catches per game over the last four and is the Bills goal line back. I think he’ll have enough touches against the Vikes generous run defense (4th worst) to put up 15+ fantasy points this week.

Shane Vereen NYJ (50%, 12) – Who knows what Belichick is going to do now that Stevan Ridley is out, but Vereen is the best bet to lead their RBs in touches this week. The Jets had a tough run D early in the season, but in the last two weeks both Branden Oliver and Ronnie Hillman have put up 100 yards on Jets. Vereen is a similar back to those two and could give the Jets problems.

Bishop Sankey @WAS (29%,8) – This is the 3rd week in a row that I am predicting a Sankey breakout… It’s coming.

Isaiah Crowell @JAX (10%, 5) – I already mentioned that the Browns like to run the ball and Crowell has been their most explosive RB. I expect the Browns to have a lead in this one and once they do, I think Crowell will get a few more touches than usual.

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Fantasy Football Week 7: Start’em / Sit’em

By Mike Flannery | Oct 16, 2014

Start’em