Robbie Gould’s Job Gets Tougher with New PAT Rule

Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Robbie Gould‘s job is going to get a little tougher thanks to the latest rule change passed by the NFL’s Competition Committee to move the point after tries from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line.

"The NFL announced the extra point will now be kicked from the 15-yard line with two-point conversions remaining at the 2-yard line. The new rule also gives the defense the ability to score two points on returns.According to the rule change, if the defense returns a blocked extra point or failed two-point try for a touchdown (i.e. on an interception), they will be awarded two points. Under the previous rule the ball was dead on a failed try."

So what does this mean for Robbie Gould and the Chicago Bears?  Let’s take a look inside some numbers.  Snapping the ball from the 2-yard line basically made the extra point a 20-yard kick (2-yard line + 8 yards for the holder + 10 yard end zone).

Robbie Gould is a perfect 79/79 in his career from that range.  On traditional PAT’s, Gould has connected on 351 out of 353 tries.  He missed a PAT in his rookie year in 2005 and had two PAT’s blocked in the last two seasons when the Bears special teams went into the crapper.

On PAT’s and chip shots inside 30 yards, Gould is good (good as Gould!) for 99.5% of his attempts.   Looking at field goal attempts from 30-39 yards, Gould is a career 80 out of 89.  His success rate drops to 89.9%  So what does that mean for the Bears?

I looked at Chicago Bears touchdowns in the same span, over Robbie Gould’s career.  Since 2005, the Bears have scored 366 touchdowns.  If you look at extra points for those 366 points, you take Gould’s 99.5% rate against 366 and get 364 successful extra points.  Now take those same 366 touchdowns, but apply the 89.9% success rate that we’ll assume using the longer point after attempt and we only get 325 extra points.  That’s a difference of 39 extra points.

Granted, that’s just an average of less than 4 points per season, but it doesn’t take into account the possibility of returned attempts.  If a couple of those missed PAT’s are blocked and turned around by the defense, it could be a greater swing.

Robbie Gould is on the verge of becoming the Chicago Bears all-time leading scorer.  His 1080 points trail only fellow kicker Kevin Butler‘s 1116 by 36.  The new PAT change may forestall the inevitable, as John Fox will have to decide when to attempt to kick the longer PAT or go for a 2-point conversion from the 2-yard line.  With this rule change, it could cement Robbie Gould’s place as the Chicago Bears all-time leading scorer as you can expect fewer PAT’s going forward.

What do you think of the rule change?  Do you think it will make any difference in the outcomes of games?  How will it change the strategy?