Well, my friends, it has come to the final weekend. Two weeks ago I totally missed posting about the championship weekend because our pool team was in a championship weekend.  It didn’t finish well there and I missed picking the games.  Regardless, I am happy with the way the season ended from a pick standpoint.  (more…)

I regretfully do not have a lot of time while doing this post, but I want to make sure I get picks in before the start of the games.  I went 3-5 last weekend, so I need to do a little better this time around.  I’ll do a summary of all of my playoff picks before the conference games next week.  Let’s just get to it:

Denver – 9 vs Baltimore, Over 44.5 - the lines have moved by a 1/2 point on both.  It started at 9.5 and 44.  Denver has been on a roll and are playing at home.  I think that both teams are going to score on one another, even though Denver’s Defense has been playing very well.  However, Denver will outscore Baltimore by double digits, so I like them at home.  Final score prediction: Denver 30- Baltimore 17.

SanFran -3 vs Green Bay, Over 45 - similarly, I also believe that both of these teams are going to score on one another.  You know Green Bay will score with Aaron at the helm, and this is the game that Green Bay’s weaker defense lets them down on the road.  Packers – this is what you get for losing that last game of the season!  Final Score prediction: San Fran 30-Green Bay 24

Atlanta -2 vs Seattle, Over 46.5 – I’m finding that I’m liking all of the home teams and overs, which makes me a little nervous.  However, this is the year that Atlanta breaks through.  I wasn’t a fan of them all year because all of their wins were close, but it was those wins which will pay dividends in this high scoring, close game.  Final Score prediction: Atlanta 34- Seattle 24

New England -9.5 vs Houston, Under 48.5 - Did Houston learn anything in their throttling vs New England during the season?  Not enough.  I may feel differently if this was in Houston, but it’s not.  New England’s Defense steps up to slow down the Texans keeping this game under.   Final Score prediction:  New England 27 – Houston 13

Well, as far as the Bears go, I couldn’t think of a worse way to end the season.  I suppose if the Packers would have won and the Bears lost to Detroit, that might be worse.  What’s really going to be annoying is when the Packers pound the Vikings this weekend.  All of the Bears fans are going to be sitting around saying, “Why didn’t you do this last week?”  I guess that is the power of home field advantage.  Adrian Peterson isn’t going to be quite as fast at Lambeau this week as he was on home field turf.

As far as my picks go, it was nice to finish 4-1 to end the season on the plus side.  Again, football gambling is fun, but with the craziness that is the NFL, I personally wouldn’t make it my full-time job.  But how about that Seattle vs. St. Louis call?  I also am a little surprised that I ended up on the plus side when it came to picking Bears games.  I tried to take the “homer” disadvantage out of it and it helped my total.  All in all it was a fun season, but now it gets really tricky and Vegas analyzes everything and comes up with some really good spreads.  However, going into wild card weekend, I feel good about the games.  To add to the fun, I’m going to pick all 4 games including the over/unders, so let’s get it on:

Cincinnati -4.5 @ Houston/Over 43.5 - Houston has been favored for a long time and for awhile, it was easy to jump on board.  However, with some injuries on their Defense and some inconsistencies, they’ve struggled down the stretch.  Cincinnati on the other hand has finished strong, albeit against some lesser opponents (Kansas City, Oakland).  They did finish the season beating 2 divisional opponents including a win in Pittsburgh.  This will be the upset of the weekend as everyone is banking on Houston easily dispatching Cincinnati as they did last year in the first round (31-10).  Even if Cincinnati doesn’t pull it out, they can still keep it within 3 or 4 points which I’ll take.  I’m also looking forward to the Johnson/Green show as I’m predicting 3 touchdowns between the two of them.  Because of that, I’ll take the over as well as I’m looking at a 27-23 game…..Bengals win.  I’ll even take that score flip-flopped as well.

Green Bay -7.5 vs Minnesota/Over 46 -watching the line, the over/under line has dropped .5 since opening, which isn’t significant other than most people feel that it won’t be the same point battle as last time in the dome.  Mid-twenties weather is expected which shouldn’t impact the game that much, expect slow down the speed when compared to turf.  I still don’t like the Green Bay Defense which I think will be their eventual downfall, but it is also why I continue to like the over.  However, Green Bay has the much better ability to gameplan for Minnesota than vice versa.  You will see more wrinkles from Green Bay and more control. Expect Aaron to be his playoff self.

Colts -7 @ Baltimore/Under 47 - emotional storylines will be the talk of this game, but the game itself is an exciting matchup.  It will not be easy for the Colts to go into Baltimore and win.  The Ravens rested last week and are hoping to get Ray Lewis back on their Defense, which isn’t as dominant as it once was.  If the Ravens use Ray Lewis correctly, they should dispel the feel-good story of the year.  However, I rarely see it, so the Colts keep it close, but eventually fall to the Ravens on the road – but still cover.

Seattle -3 @ Washington/Over 46 - unbelievably, the most exciting matchup of the weekend.  A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have predicted this game nor would I have looked forward to it, but since the Bears are out, this one will be fun.  You have to love the two rookie quarterback matchup.  My favorite ad has Russell Wilson standing at the line with the phrase: They passed on you, pass on them.  Although Seattle isn’t known to be good on the road, they are a more complete team than the Redskins.  The offenses will battle, but eventually the Seattle Defense will rise above the Redskins and shut down the Redskins one or two more times.  Seattle wins on the road in a high scoring affair.

LAST WEEK:  Pick 3:  2-1     Upset Special 1-0           Beloved:  1-0   

SEASON:    Pick  3:   22-25-1     Upset Special:  8-6-1      Beloved:  9-6-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  43-40-5

Well, the end of this season should be quite interesting.  No, I’m not particularly talking about the Bears playoff hopes, I’m talking about my season betting record.  Due to last week’s shameful Pick 3 performance, I won’t be able to crawl back over 500 there even with 3 winners.  However, my season record is a dead even 39-39-5 which means that I can finish the season over 500 with a 500 week.  Funny how that happens 83 picks later.  Next year, I suggest you follow along and do the same thing.  See how you end up at the end of the season.  I guess it is pretty similar to the Bears – because really what matters is this week. I was a little saddened to see Lovie’s quote stating that the Bears wanted to be relevant this week when it came to playoff implications (or something to that effect).  Relevant?  Seriously, Lovie?  After a 7-1 start, I don’t really think in Week 17 we should be excited about being relevant – we should’ve been discussing what the boys were going to do during their week off and whether or not we should start Campbell this week.  Let’s just get to the picks:

PICK 3

New England -10 vs Miami - starting terribly against the 49ers and Jags isn’t the way you want to finish your season.  With seedings on the line and wanting to get out of the gates fast, I’m thinking that we see the return of the covering Patriots we all know and….I don’t want to say love, but when they win for me, well…..

Tennessee -4 vs Jacksonville -yes, it is hard to pick the Titans, but a lot of people will have a hard time picking them after watching that debacle last week.  Despite their horrid showing, the Titans will be playing at home against an even worse team that held their own last week against the Patriots.  So – why the Titans pick?  Gut. I’d look for the over in this one too!

Green Bay -3.5 @ Minnesota - I guess my problem remains that I’m still not a believer in Minnesota.  I know that they are playing well – especially holding down the Texans.  However, the Vikings offense won’t be able to keep up with Green Bay – even with Adrian Peterson rushing for the record.

UPSET SPECIAL

St. Louis +10.5 vs Seattle -knowing that Seattle has averaged over 50 pts in its last 3 games and they are playing at home is a little scary – especially after that 49er beat-down.  However, St. Louis has been playing some decent Defense lately and this game looks like it will be a beat-down – exactly why it won’t be.  Seattle wins by a touchdown.

THE BELOVED

Bears -3 vs Detroit -Peanut shuts down Megatron, Cutler has a good game, a TE catches 2 passes, and we see a couple of passes to some slot receivers.  All four of those need to happen along with some other things – but Bears sneak into playoffs.

LAST WEEK:  Pick 3:  0-3     Upset Special 1-0           Beloved:  1-0   

SEASON:    Pick  3:   20-24-1     Upset Special:  7-6-1      Beloved:  8-6-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  39-39-5

If I had a sister, I would’ve been kissing her quite a bit this year, which is really only accepted in the south.  Ok, I’m kidding!  I had another 500 day, but it is always better than being under. I tried to go the over/under route last week and it didn’t work out exceptionally well, but I have a feeling that my games wouldn’t have either.  I won a couple weekly fantasy leagues, so that was good, especially since I’m out of a year-long league.  I was surprised to see Washington put up so many points against Cleveland last week which totally messed up my over call on that one.  The Miami/Jacksonville game was a sleeper which I correctly anticipated.  I didn’t think the Bears would pull it off last week and I was correct, but I did feel as if some more points would be scored.  Regardless, that was just a frustrating game on so many different levels, so I’d rather not rehash it and get on to the business at hand, winning some games this week:

PICK 3:

Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Miami -Buffalo was absolutely embarrassed last week by Seattle giving up a total of 50.  When a team lays an egg like that, the betting public often jumps against them the following week.  In a division game of two poor teams, I always like taking the points.

New England -14  @ Jacksonville -earlier in the season, I would’ve been more afraid to give up 14 – especially after the Patriots let the Cardinals beat them at home.  However, the Patriots have once again rounded up just in time for the playoffs and their defense has gotten better.  As always, they love running up the score too.

Eagles +6.5 vs Washington - Washington has become a hot commodity for the public and the Eagles are supposed to be packing up after a difficult season.  That 6.5 point sure sucks you into taking the Redskins doesn’t it?  All they have to do is win by a touchdown.  I don’t like it.  The Eagles put up a fight against their division rival before going into the off-season.

UPSET SPECIAL

New Orleans +3 @ Dallas - I don’t know why I just can never pick Dallas to win a game – especially at home.  The Saints to me still are a very dangerous team and they go into Dallas and play the role of spoiler.  Drew Brees has let me down before this season as my pick, not on Sunday.

THE BELOVED

Bears -6 @ Arizona – if not now, when?  If not the Bears, then whom? If you can’t go to AZ and win by 6, I don’t want to watch the last game and I could care less what the other NFC teams do.  Go play the damn game and show up!

LAST WEEK:  Pick 3:  1-2     Beloved:  1-0   

SEASON:    Pick  3:   20-21-1     Upset Special:  6-6-1      Beloved:  7-6-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  37-36-5

I ran out of time to get my Thursday Night pick in.  Looking at this week, I’d like to run out of time too because there are some exceptionally difficult games to pick this week.  Last week, I was a little under 500, due in large part to our Bears once again being exceptionally underwhelming.  I think we all know what is on the line this week, I can’t believe once again it has come to this.  You need to win the games you should win, plain and simple.  I’d rather have people complaining that the only teams the Bears beat are the crappy teams than have them lose to those crappy teams and doubt them for a different reason.  Sorry, I’ll step off the soapbox, but what would you expect, it’s Packers Week.  Since this is an exceptionally difficult week, I figured I’d focus on a different concept of gambling, the OVER/UNDER.  I’ve decided to pick 3 games’ over/under scores and the Beloved – let’s see where that leads me:

PICK 3

Washington/Cleveland 39.5 – I am going to choose to go under on this game.  Cleveland’s strength is in it’s defense.  With RG3 dinged up, his mobility is going to be impacted, meaning Washington’s offense will be limited.  I don’t see this one putting up 6 touchdowns.

Miami/Jaguars 38 - this is also one of those games that will go under.  Don’t you see it now?  10-3 halftime score.  17-13 final score.

Bears/Packers 43.5 – Aaron Rodgers versus dinged up Bears Defense.  Bears offense shows up against weak Green Bay Defense.  The old battle of the Black and Blue goes over in a December game that doesn’t remind anyone of it being Wintertime.  I’m taking the over.

The Beloved

Packers -1 vs the Bears - painful to write, painful to look at.  I obviously won’t be rooting this way, but unless the Superbears we saw earlier in the season show up, they won’t win this one.  Does this become the springboard game that catapults them into the playoffs?  I’m really hoping, but a little pessimistic.  Sorry fans.

LAST WEEK:  Pick 3:  2-1      Upset Special: 0-1    Beloved:  0-1   

SEASON:    Pick  3:   19-19-1     Upset Special:  6-6-1      Beloved:  6-6-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  35-34-5

Oakland, it could’ve been worse.  I don’t know if it is a good or bad thing when the opposing team puts up 4 field goals against you.  I suppose it is good because they’re not touchdowns, but that’s a lot of time for the opposing team to be on your side of the field.  Well, I suppose that’s why your packing up with three more weeks football left for you.  Well, I know that there are plenty of you out there focusing on your fantasy football playoffs, but there is still money to be had utilizing a different venue – the point spread.  I’m still 2 games above 500, and if I were paying juice, I’d probably be even or a little down.  As long as I don’t have any crazy weeks like last week, I’ll be looking good heading into the playoffs.  On to Week 14:

Pick 3:  I’m going to go with the UPSETS (covers) this week:

Kansas City +7 @ Cleveland – something just tells me that even though Cleveland will likely win this, the Chiefs will do enough to hang around and keep it close.  This is the Browns giving 7 points, people, not the Patriots.

Tennessee +5 @ Indianapolis - an unexpected 8-4 team playing a 4-8 team that gives up a lot of points?  Yep, seems like a no-brainer that Indy takes care of business at home.  I’m thinking it ends up like a 20-17 game or 24-20.

Philadelphia -9 @ Tampa Bay - I know that the Eagles have given up on Reid, but Bryce Brown sure the heck hasn’t.  It is very possible that the Eagles don’t win another game, but 9 points is awfully high.  This will be a running game battle between Martin and Brown and will be a little closer than most people expect.

UPSET SPECIAL

New Orleans Saints -4.5 @ New York - of course, this will be the game that the NYG look like Superbowl Champs again.  Drew Brees is going to be a little more cautious in this one and play it closer to the vest even though the Saints are desperate.  Less turnovers means closer game for the Boys from the Bayou.

THE BELOVED

Bears -2.5 vs Minnesota -the Bears loss of Urlacher and Peterson’s stellar play gives us an advantage on this one- a lower spread.  The Bears are sure to see a heavy dose of AP, but there’s only so much he can do vs. an 8-man front.  Vegas thinks that the loss of Urlacher will be a significant swing.  I’m more apt to think that the loss of Jennings would be more critical if the Vikings had a passing game.  I’m good giving the 2.5 points as long as the Defense figured out a play to stop that well-designed, but dumb (because it worked against us like 5 times) Rudolph 3 and out play.

THURSDAY:  1-0

SEASON:    Pick  3:   17-18-1     Upset Special:  6-5-1      Beloved:  6-5-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  33-31-5

OUCH!  Rough week last week.  Another crazy week in the NFL.  Just a couple of rhetorical questions.  Could you imagine if the Rams/49ers tied again?  Are people done annointing the inconsistent Giants Superbowl Champs again? Why did Houston’s Defense have to show up last week – where were you the previous two? What in the world is wrong in Philadelphia? Can you believe the Colts are going to make the playoffs?  What happened to the Bears Defense last week?  How come they didn’t have an answer for a scrambling rookie quarterback?  Why don’t the Bears just run hitches with Marshall all the way up the field? Oh well, onto Week 14 and a big Fantasy Playoff Week:

Denver -10 @ Oakland – I can’t imagine this one being close.  I understand it is in Oakland and it’s a division game.  However, Oakland is falling apart and Denver is gearing up for the playoffs.  Manning is getting another prime opportunity to show that he’s back and the NFL network cringes over another halftime channel change by its fans.

LAST WEEK:    Pick 3: 1-2               Upset Special 0-1             Beloved 0-1

SEASON:    Pick  3:   17-18-1     Upset Special:  6-5-1      Beloved:  6-5-1   Thursday Night 3-3-2  =  32-31-5