Similarly, when I went to bed on Thursday (Friday and Saturday too for that matter), I went to sleep believing that the Bears were actually going to make the playoffs thanks to a solid win over New Orleans.   It was all set up.  A Vikings loss here, a Giants win there and we’d be all set.  All of that changed on Sunday like the sudden change in the weather.  Everything went terribly, horribly, impossibly wrong.  Now, the Bears will be lucky to have a glimmer of playoff hope next time they take the field against Green Bay a week from now. 

Vikings beat the Cardinals- any time Arizona would like to stop anyone on the Vikings would be fine with me.  Bernard Berrian not only bit, but chewed off and spit out the hand that once fed him with an 82-yard punt return and another long TD reception from backup QB Tarvaris Jackson.  Arizona came out flat and never recovered.  They looked outmatched in all phases of the game and will certainly get destroyed in their first home playoff game since 1947.  Thanks for nothing Cards!

Dallas beats New York Giants – Dallas looks like the team that many people expected with a Sunday night victory over the NFC-leading New York Giants.  The Dallas D sacked Eli Manning 8 times and the Giants’ offense could never really get out of neutral.  Dallas still has two tough games remaining, but a loss to the Giants would have helped.

Tampa beat Atlanta.  Where has Tampa’s run defense gone?  Michael Turner went off for 150+ on the ground against the once-feared Bucs defense.  I was hoping that Tampa would ascend to the #1 wild card spot and run the table, doing the Beloved a favor along the way.  Tampa and Atlanta are now tied for second behind division-leading Carolina with matching 9-5 records.  Since they both have a tie-breaker against the Bears, they’ll both need to lose out for the Bears to have a shot at passing them.

And now, we pray as our “Four-Fodders,” Da Super Fans taught us:

Starting cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher are both becoming question marks week-by-week for their availability on Sundays.  Vasher has a wrist injury and Tillman appeared at Halas Hall today with his arm in a black sling after a shoulder injury that took him out of Sundays game.  Tillman’s replacement, Trumaine McBride, injured his shoulder later in the game and had to come out.  Safety Danieal Manning suffered hamstring troubles and will also miss practice time this week.  Oh, and don’t forget safety Brandon McGowan has already been put on injured reserve earlier in the season. 

The Bears are a leg injury to Mike Brown away from complete disaster at the secondary.  This is not a good way to go into a game against the Vikings and former teammate Bernard Berrian.  The Bears could be forced to put second year corner Corey Graham and Marcus Hamilton, just signed from the Tampa Bay Bucs a few weeks ago as their starting corners. 

Tillman and Vasher are still holding on to hopes of playing this Sunday, but neither are 100% and would have to play through the pain.  This Sunday could be a repeat on last Sunday when the Bears did a great job of stopping the run but appeared helpless stopping the pass.  The front four on defense will have to work twice as hard to get at the quarterback and create havoc.  If the Vikings pass the ball a lot, they may force the Bears to take linebackers of the field (their strength) and put an extra corner on the field (their weakness). 

The more I see of this Bears defense, the more I think we need to start talking about talented safeties coming out of college and entering next year’s draft.  Coaches are making due with safeties and corners selected in fifth and sixth rounds of the past few drafts.  Some have some talent but none are particularly ready to take on a starting role on their own.  As good as the Bears defense may be, it lacks an intimidating presence at safety to put next to Mike Brown.  Kevin Payne has emerged as a solid starter with his solid tackling and good coverage, but he cannot take on the load himself.  After a couple injuries this defense gets thin very fast in the secondary. 

The one bright spot is the Vikings commitment to the run and Adrian Peterson may force them to stick with the run and keep a more balance attack.  The Bears defense can handle stopping the run and will certainly look for payback after Peterson torched them last season.  However, at some point the Vikings will have to go to the air and if the Bears cannot find a way to put pressure on either the quarterback or the receiver, this could be an ugly game. 

There hasn’t been a Pro Bowl wide receiver in Chicago since Marty Booker did his first tour here and that was a long time ago.  It’s hard for any receiver to establish themselves in a town with so much quarterback controversy.  Joey Galloway would be probably be more of a household name if not for all the quarterback issues in Tampa Bay. 

But you know what?  The last time I checked, football is a team sport.  Receivers want to pad their stats and look good so they can get endorsement deals and be famous.  Not every receiver has that opportunity and more often than not, every receiver trying to be that guy ends up hurting the team.  Sometimes being a great receiver means making great blocks downfield so your running back can get longer runs.  Sometimes being a great receiver means breaking off your route and getting a four yard catch when your quarterback is in trouble.  Sometimes being a great receiver means catching the ball over the middle and taking the hit from the linebacker so your team can get a first down.

I’ve been talking to people for a while now how the receiver position in dying in the NFL.  The age of Jerry Rice and the unstoppable receivers of his time appears to be in the decline, if not almost dead.  There are only a handful of elite receivers left in the NFL and some of their egos are proving disasterous to their teams.  After Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Chad Johnson, there is a big drop off of talent.  Marvin Harrison used to be the best but he’s starting to look old.  There are a few young guys like Reggie Wayne and Braylon Edwards to carry the torch, but each passing year there are fewer big time receivers in the NFL.  So is it really the Bears fault?  Look around the NFL, there are a lot of good receivers, but the number of great ones is dropping off. 

The modern NFL is leaning towards offenses that feature a two-back system and have at least one huge tight end that can run just as fast as a receiver.  It’s actually the evolution of the tight end that’s killing the receiver.  Every team had that hard ass receiver that would go over the middle for six or eight catches a game, get killed by the linebacker, and the sick bastard loved it.  Now everyone wants to be on the cover of a video game and can’t afford to hurt their pretty face. 

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more things stay the same.  The game of football demands for someone to take the open space defenses usually create over the middle to catch the ball and move the offense.  Since receivers are no longer willing to do it, coaches have evolved ultra-tight ends that are big as houses but move like receivers.  Their bodies allow them to take on linebackers and their talent allows them to make plays for the end zone.  All over the country, coaches are finding these huge kids that are fast and good with their hands.  Up until a few years ago they were probably put at fullback, defensive end, or linebacker.  If he was drafted today, Mike Alstott probably would have been a tight end for Tampa Bay.  Meanwhile the prima dona receivers sit on the sideline and watch their job dimish to a minimal role. 

The evolution of the game has created faster linebackers and the old end around plays don’t have the effectiveness they used to.  More offenses are using running backs with good hands to slide to the sidelines and give a place for the quarterback to dump the ball.  Quarterbacks used to scramble around looking for receivers to break their route and make an amazing play.  Those highlights are reserved for runnings backs now as they swing along the sidelines making dashing cuts for the endzone. 

The dynamics of the game are changing and big play wide receivers are a dying breed.  There will always be a select few that will collect the big money and get on the magazine covers.  The sad part is their rarity will only drive up their value and force teams to dump money at a position they know will only have minimal impact.  What good does a big contract for Bernard Berrian have for Minnesota if Tarvaris Jackson can’t even get him the ball?  The Bears went with an approach that may become more common in the NFL.  A rotating core of slot receivers that block downfield and make key third down plays to keep the drive going.  The big plays are no reserved for running backs and tight ends, with receivers running a distant third. 

Anyway you look at it, Muhsin Muhammad is right.  Chicago is the place where receivers go to die, and so is every other city in the NFL. 

Establish The Running Game

Believe it or not, the Bears may have done themselves a favor getting rid of Cedric Benson.  He was never able to translate his success in college to success in the NFL.  The Bears kept giving him second chances because they wasted a high first round draft pick on him and were hoping to get a little production for their wasted money.  With Benson out of the way it paves the way for rookie Matt Forte and veteran Adrian Peterson.  Between the two they pose a better chance for the Bears to establish a running game than wasting more time hoping Benson would produce.  Coach Lovie Smith recently said that he likes the Bears running back depth chart and they don’t see a need to pursue a free agent running back.  Quarterback Rex Grossman looks like he’s running sand when he’s scrambling in the pocket, but he throws a beautiful deep ball off play action.  If the Bears have a running game, they can produce some big plays.

D-FENCE

Last year the offense got most of the attention as the reason the Bears lots.  Let’s get something straight right now, the Bears never have and never will pretend to be an offensive team.  They preach defense and then more defense.  Last year the entire defense got banged up, losing both starting cornerbacks, safety Mike Brown, and Tommie Harris played with a bad knee the entire season.  The return of a healthy defense could quickly return the Bears to dominance quicker than critics believe.  The Bears defense got them to the Super Bowl two years ago when all they had on offense was Thomas Jones and a chance-taking Rex Grossman.  This defensive unit can create turnovers, score touchdowns, and win games all by itself.  If the injury bug can stay off their backs this season, the results may look much different than last year.

The X-Factor: Devin Hester

Last season, the Bears offense was so pathetic that opposing teams were willing to kickoff out-of-bounds and give the Bears the ball on the 40-yard line rather than kick to Devin Hester.  I can tell you from sitting in the stands and watching him on the field, he is the fastest, most ellusive man I have ever seen.  The Bears have talked about letting Hester sit out some kickoffs so he can focus more of his energy on playing wide receiver.  Everyone is holding their breath to see how this experiment works out for the offense.  Last season Hester looked confused after leaving the huddle and frequently had to be reminded his assignment by a fellow receiver, usually Muhsin Muhammed.  Hester has had a full season to study the playbook and if he can make an impact on offense he will offer an immediate spark to ignite scoring.  The quarterback just has to get the ball in Hester’s hands and he can carve up the defense on his own.  If the offense can produce, they will either be able to take advantage of the great field position, or teams will have to kick to Hester.  Either option works in the Bears favor.

A Deep Pass To……Who?

The Bears decided the offense needed to go in a new direction this season.  Last year they got a very talented tight end in Greg Olsen who can run and block and this year they picked up a top tackle in Chris Williams to solidify the line.  Everyone already knows about the running back situation, but the wide receiver corps is a complete unknown.  The top 2 receivers from last season, Muhsin Muhammed and Bernard Berrian, are gone and in are Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, rookie Earl Bennett, rookie Marcus Monk, Mark Bradley, Rashied Davis, and Mike Hass.  That’s a lot of names isn’t it?  That’s because the Bears have no idea who will be the starting wide receivers and have brought in a whole new crop to choose from.  Marty Booker had a lot of success the first time he played with the Bears and is happy to be home.  He will be the veteran presence but it is unclear how much talent he has left.  Brandon Lloyd has be praised as the best looking receiver in OTA’s and appears to be the most promising prospect of the bunch.  Surprising little has been said about rookie draft picks Bennett and Monk, which isn’t good and means they need to step it up in training camp.  Davis and Bradley have been with the team a few years and are good, but far from being great.  Mike Hass just missed making the team last year but made some absolutely amazing catches in the preseason last year and eyes will be on him this year.  I will say one thing, the Bears have made many mistakes in the draft but they have rarely made mistakes with wide receiver.  Booker and Lloyd will be the front runners, but Bennett and Monk may become big producers down the line.

NFC NORTH

Last year the Bears had a tough time with their own division, getting beat up by the Vikings, Packers, and the Lions.  Hopefully this year the Bears will solve the riddle of how a terrible Lions team managed to give them hell and keep the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson from running all over the field.  Brett Favre was always a Bears killer and with him gone the defense should be able to exhale a little bit.  The problem is the NFL North appears to have replaced Favre with the new division star in Peterson.  It will be hard to match up against a good Vikings team, but I will be interested to see how they treat Berrian in the first game.  If the Bears are going to have any success, they have to find a way to at least split the games with their three rivals.

Season Schedule

Coach Lovie Smith likes to break the season into quarters so I’ll do the same.  First quarter: open against the Colts in their new stadium, at Panthers, Bucs, and Eagles.  I would LOVE to see the Bears take out the Colts in their new stadium but I doubt the Bears will have everything ready.  This team will take time to feel each other with so many new faces.  The Bears need to rebound quickly with a win against the Panthers.  The Bears have always enjoyed success against the Bucs and they have bigger problems than the Bears with their roster.  The Eagles are always tough in the beginning of the season with a healthy McNabb.  They’ll likely open 2-2.

Second quarter: at Lions, at Falcons, Vikings, Lions.  The Bears played the Lions close together last season and it spelled disaster as they confused Bears coaches both times.  This year I doubt they will let the same thing happen.  The Falcons are a few years away from being competitive in the NFL and should offer some relief.  The first match up against the Vikings will be charged up for the Bears to test themselves against the new NFL darling as NFC favorite.  Second quarter record: 3-1.

Third quarter: Titans, at Packers, at Rams, at Vikings.  You never know what to expect from the Titans and Vince Young.  However, Brian Urlacher has always matched up well against scrambling quarterbacks by chasing down all over the field.  He did it to Michael Vick and he should be able to do it against Young.  The Bears then have a tough three game stretch of away games but thankfully they are all in the midwest and will save players from travel fatigue.  The Bears will try to take advantage of a Favre-less Packers, shut down the Ram offense, and try to escape Minnesota with a victory.  They will be successful in 2 out of 3 trips.  Third quarter record:  3-1.

Fourth quarter:  Jaguars, Saints, Packers, at Texans.  This will be the toughest stretch of the season for the Bears and will test their ability.  By this time they will be in contention for a playoff spot but will have to fight hard to keep it.  The Bears play the Jaguars on Sunday and then must prepare for the Saints on Thursday night.  The Jaguars are a physical team and may present a problem for players to be ready by Thursday for a talented Saints team.  I fear at best they will split these games and could possibly drop them both.  The Bears will have no problem getting focused for the Packers game at Soldier Field on December 22nd for Monday Night Football.  The house will be rocking and the Bears will be looking to put on a good show.  The Texans offer a nice trip to warm Texas and hopefully wrap up a playoff spot.  Fourth quarter record:  2-2. 

That leaves the Bears with a record of 10-6 and in the NFC that will always get you to the playoffs. 

Playoff Match Ups

The good news about a good Minnesota team is that if the Bears meet them in the playoffs, they will be very familiar with each other.  The more experience you have with a team, regardless of talent, the better chance you have to find a way to beat them.  Teams like the Saints and Cowboys are unpredictable but talented and may face challenges for the Bears.  However, no NFC team has really established itself as a top team beyond ranking speculation.  As we have seen, a key injury to the Cowboys or Saints lineup can leave them vulnerable.  A lot of things can happen in a football season.  As the saying goes, any given sunday.  The opportunities are there for the Bears if they can seize it. 

Davis came to the Bears after spenDding four years in the Arena League with the San Jose Sabercats, originally looking to play cornerback, but quickly switched to wide receiver.  His most notable moment came in a game against the Minnesota Vikings in 2006 when it appeared Rex Grossman had given up the game-winning interception for a touchdown.  The Bears came right back and Davis caught the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter comeback.

The sure handed receiver didn’t get much playing time last year while competing against Devin Hester and Greg Olsen as the 3rd and 4th receiver options on the field after Muhsin Muhammed and Bernard Berrian.  Muhammed and Berrian have been replaced with Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd but the Bears are confident they can get Davis more playing time this season.  Even though there is a lot of competition at the wide receiver position, there is no clear front runner and Davis will have an opportunity in training camp to prove himself worthy of playing time.

Considering the move locks up Davis for three years and the Bears have been unwilling to sign many other receivers beyond this season, the Bears appear confident that they can mold Davis into a top receiver.   Davis has never been considered a deep threat on the field but he has shown good hands and route running that could put him in contention for possession receiver on third downs.

The list now includes Brian Urlacher, Tommie Harris, Devin Hester, and Robbie Gould.  All are considered one of the best players at their respective positions.  None of the four have suggested holding out for a better contract, but all are absent from voluntary team workouts taking place at Halas Hall.  All four players feel they are worth far more than the compensation at the tail end of their contracts. 

The only player that doesn’t fit in this group is Urlacher, who already signed a blockbuster deal several years ago.  However, Harris, Hester, and Gould all played out rookie contracts that pay them a yearly salary for what they will probably get as a signing bonus in a new deal. 

The problem for the Bears is they really have no choice other than to sign them all.  All four players help make up the core of the Bears lineup and are model examples for team players.  As much as the Bears don’t want to waste the salary cap space, the time has come to reward the under paid players that have supported the rest of the team.  It’s moments like these that make us realize why the Bears let Bernard Berrian go to Minnesota.  A good team must balance bringing in fresh talent at reasonable contracts and paying their talented players their worth.  The key for this Bears team will be rewarding their talented players and positioning skilled players from the draft to help them. 

In the meantime, it looks like the Bears are hard at work with all four players to reach an agreement on contracts extensions.  There has been no talk of trades or disappointment, just confidence that both sides will reach an agreement and get the season started. 

The significance of 5 spots could be huge for a Bears team that will likely look to the third round to draft a running back, wide receiver, or quarterback. In almost every draft there is a player who unexpectedly drops to the second round. If a potential first round quarterback or running back is available in the second round, the Bears have the luxury to grab him knowing they have high picks in the third round to fill other need positions.

The NFL still has to decide want round to award a draft pick the Bears for losing Bernard Berrian. The league makes decisions on later round draft picks based upon the size of contracts signed by leaving free agents with other teams. The size of the contract Berrian signed with the Minnesota Vikings could potentially reward the Bears with at least an additional 5th round pick and could potentially be a 4th or even 3rd round pick depending on how the NFL weighs the move.

This comes on the heels of reports the Bears are holding private luncheons with Arkansas running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. McFadden is a top draft pick and Jones will likely be available much later in the draft. If the NFL awards additional draft picks to the Bears they may try to package several picks together to trade up and grab McFadden or trade down and count on getting Jones. Either way it presents an interesting move for Halas Hall to find an immediate fix at running back and could possibly signal that Cedric Benson has suddenly given the Bears reason to believe he is not ready to be the starting running back. Benson has spent a lot of time on the injured list and his rehabilitation from his latest injury may be giving the Bears concerns.

I still believe the Bears feel offensive tackle is a top priority, but with a deep talent pool at tackle they may be willing to either trade up and grab a huge talent at running back or trade down to grab a quality lineman and running back. The next few weeks could prove crucial for the franchise.