Today’s focus is on Dynasty and Keeper league rookie drafts, especially the huge shift in the first round of these drafts.  I’ve been in dynasty leagues for ten years now, and there have always been two constants in these drafts.  The first two picks are always running backs no matter how can’t miss a wide receiver has been, and the first QB taken will not happen in the first round, but generally around pick 15.

The running back pick is not where the shift is this season. Trent Richardson drafted by the Cleveland Browns and Doug Martin of the Tampa Bay Buccanneers went 1 & 2  in both drafts I participated in.  The big shift comes that in both leagues I had pick 8 and was expecting to get Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III and neither one was available by pick 8.  This was very disheartening for me in one league, because it was my draft strategy all along to pick one of these young QB’s because I only had  one QB on my roster. If you’re picking in the bottom of the first round and are looking to pick a QB you may need to make a trade to move up and guarantee one of the young guns on your roster, or you will be forced to chase down backups via the waiver wires or take Ryan Tannehill in a later round of the rookie draft.

Why the Qb shift? 1. Cam Newton exploded last season right out of the starting blocks.  All old school coaches would say it takes years to become great, but Ben Roethlisberger dispelled that notion, and then Cam destroyed that notion with his statistical prowess last season    2.  The big time talented  rookies went to bad situations.  Justin Blackmon went to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Blaine “I struggle to throw the forward pass” Gabbert as his QB.  Blackmon also didn’t do himself any favors with his DUI arrest.  David Wilson went the the NY Giants and gets to play behind Amhad Bradshaw, and Michael Floyd went to the Arizona Cardinals which could be good because he gets to start across from Larry Fitzgerald but he still doesn’t know who will be behind center and throwing them the pigskin  come opening day.

The highest drafted Bears rookie was naturally 2^ndround selection Alshon Jeffery. If you’re a homer and like picking Bears (I drafted Matt Forte in both leagues before his rookie season so I’m a homer too) Jeffrey average draft position has been 15.

May 11, 2012; Lake Forest, IL, USA; Chicago Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery runs a route during rookie minicamp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Two sleepers that went higher than expected. 1. WR Rueben Randle(average pick 18) of the New York Giants, he shot up when the news of Hakeem Nicks breaking his foot came out which coincided with the free agent departure of Mario Manningham 2. TE Coby Fleener (Average pick 9) usually tight ends get picked up in 2-3 round area code, but  being reunited with Luck seems to get everyone trigger happy when selecting him.

Here’s the average top 10 picks

1. Trent Richardson
2. Doug Martin
3. David Wilson
4. Justin Blackmon
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Michael Floyd
7. Andrew Luck
8. Lamar Miller
9. Coby Fleener
10. Brian Quick

Two deep sleepers that will be available late in your rookie draft will be Chris Polk undrafted free agent running back that Philadelphia Eagles signed, and A.J. Jenkins WR that was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers.  Somebody has to back up LeSean McCoy, and Michael Crabtree could be out of San Fran after this season unless he has a super breakout year.  Both Polk and Jenkins will be there after pick 30 in your rookie draft.

Good luck in your drafts (they are  right around the corner),  and never let anyone ever out work you!