The Divisional Round of the playoffs features four re-matches from earlier this season.

Baltimore at Tennessee

Last meeting: The Titans edged the Ravens 13-10 when the teams met back in October.  Rookie QB Joe Flacco’s second interception proved costly late in the 4th quarter as he tried to lead the Ravens back after Kerry Collins took the Titans on the decisive drive with aTD hookup to Alge Crumper with under 2 minutes left.

Breakdown: The Ravens looked really impressive in their defeat of the Dolphins.  The Titans are rested and enter the game with only center Kevin Mawae as a major question mark to play.  As much hype as the Ravens’ defense gets, their offense is actually averaging slightly more yards per game than the Titans.  Coupled with the formidable run defense and opportunistic Ed Reed in the secondary, the Ravens look like the team to beat, yet the Titans enter as a 3 point favorite.  Something just doesn’t seem right.  Everything points to Baltimore, but Tennessee is favored.

Key matchup: Titans rushing attack vs Ravens rush defense.

Prediction: One team has the momentum and the stats while the other is favored.  When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

Titans 16-13

Arizona at Carolina

Last meeting: Carolina comes back to beat the visiting team which holds double-digit second half lead.  Sound familiar Bears fans?  Carolina did the same to the Cardinals back in October to defeat Arizona 27-23.   Anquan Boldin tallied two touchdowns while rookie running back Tim Hightower added another.  On Carolina’s side, it was Steve Smith’s 65-yard touchdown reception that did the Cards in.

Breakdown: Arizona surprised many (though not this observer) with their opening round win over Atlanta.  The biggest surprise had to be the Cardinals defense, especially the run defense that kept Michael Turner in check.  That defense will need to step up again this week against the Panthers robust running attack that ranked 3rd in the NFL behind the likes of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart.

Key matchup: Arizona rush defense vs Carolina rushing offense.

Prediction: Carolina is 8-0 at home and they’re rested and ready.  Arizona’s run defense was a one week wonder and without Anquan Boldin, not enough offense to keep up with Carolina.

Panthers 31-24

Philadelphia at New York

Last meeting:These two NFC East team split the season series, with the visitor winning each contest.  The Eagles won 20-14 at the Meadowlands in December, while the G-Men beat the Eagles 36-31 in Philly back in November.  In the Eagles win, Westbrook was on the key for the Eagles as he accounted for over 200 total yards and two TD’s.  In the Giants win, Brandon Jacobs tallied 126 rushing yards with 2 TD’s of his own.

Breakdown: Philly pulled off the upset over the Vikings last weekend thanks in large part to the big play.  The pick-6 from the defense and Westrbook’s huge screen pass touchdown sunk the Vikes.  They’ve been on a roll since the benching of McNabb and definitely come in with the momentum.  The Defending Champs from NY have looked mortal in recent weeks.  In each victory, the winner held the opposing rusher well below his normal average.   

Key matchup: Which rusher will outshine which rush defense? 

Prediction: The Giants might be the champs, but the Eagles come in hot.

Eagles 23-21

 San Diego at Pittsburgh

Last meeting:The Steelers outlasted the Chargers 11-10 when the teams last met in November.  This was another controversial game involving the Chargers, though only the gamblers were affected by this questionable call by the officials.   

Breakdown:The Chargers pulled off the upset last week against the Colts thanks to the big effort by the little running back that could, Darren Sproles, who capably filled the shoes for the injured Ladanian Tomlinson.  Pittsburgh faces injury concerns of their own, as QB Ben Roethlisberger recovers from a concussion suffered December 28^thversus the Cleveland Browns.  I expect the Steelers D to beat up the undersized Sproles and keep him in check.

Key matchup: Chargers passing offense vs Pittsburgh pass defense. 

Prediction:  Pittsburgh comes in with the #1 ranked defense. Defense wins championships. 

 Steelers 19-13

Quarterback

Kyle Orton manned the most important position on the field admirably for the better part of the season, though he wasn’t quite the same after the ankle injury sustained Week 9 versus Detroit.  I think it’s important to keep everything in perspective.  A few years of Grossman may have blinded Bears fans as to what a real QB is supposed to be.  Other than not being Rex, did Orton really do that well?

The Bears offense ranked 21st in passing with 191.5 passing yards per game. Some of that may be attributed to the lack of WR’s, but we’ll get to that later.  Orton finished with 18 TD’s and 12 INT’s with a QB rating of 79.6.  Hardly mind-blowing numbers.  Does Orton deserve an extension?  I say no.  Let him play in a contract year with a sense of urgency and earn some new paper. (more…)

Forget that the Bears are still working on a contract with first round pick Chris Williams, who stands to play the biggest role in solidifying the offensive line. Forget that the Bears are still trying to figure out a dollar amount to sign Devin Hester and keep him from leaving town. Instead the Bears spend $18 million on a middle linebacker, albeit their marque player, that is approaching his peak with an arthritic back.

Brian Urlacher was looked up to by everyone in Chicago at a time when the team was at the bottom of the league. The team has reached the Super Bowl and now is trying to figure out how to get back. Urlacher still remains the face of the team but he is struggling to maintain that position of honor. He’ll always do the commercials and the ads and all that great stuff that makes us all love him. It’s his actions on the field that make you wonder if this is a team struggling to find where Urlacher fits in. The guy still makes amazing plays and I’m happy to keep him here as long as possible as a leader. You just have to wonder if a time will come when Urlacher will no longer be the star on defense and if he will take it well.

The Bears have shown an uncanny ability to draft great defensive players and get them on the field quickly to contribute. Guys like Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs, and Mark Anderson have come in making a difference from the first snap. However, young talented guys also want to get paid like young, talented guys. The Bears are struggling right now to figure out how much they can afford to pay Devin Hester, the greatest return man in the game. The front office can’t continue to dump money into old players, even the very successful ones, and allow the players of the future to go to another team.

The other day I had a moment when I was thinking about teams that have had huge ups and downs in the league. The great teams are the ones that don’t have trouble drafting key players and can keep their salary cap down, aka Indianapolis Colts. Then I got to thinking about the Oakland Raiders, a team that made a Super Bowl appearance and immediately dropped to the bottom barrel of the league. They had an MVP quarterback in Rich Gannon, and great veteran receivers in Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. After they lost the big game they also lost all their veteran players and the rest is ugly history. Within two years they were relying on Kerry Collins, Jerry Porter, and Tyrone Wheatley to lead the offense.

The moral of the story is you need to know when to keep veteran players and to allow young players to usher in a new age. If it is not handled well you end up with veterans overstaying their welcome and young players that leave town because they are frustrated with the organization that drafted them to sit the bench. Everyone in Chicago still loves Michael Jordan but let’s face it, the constant confusion of when he was going to retire prevented the Chicago Bulls from knowing when to rebuild and retarded their growth for the first five years after he retired. A team has to have balance and I hope the Bears know how to keep it.

Devin Hester needs to be locked up in the longest term contract possible. When you come across talent that great at such a young age you have to keep it all to yourself. I still think Urlacher can make huge contributions, I’m not saying he still isn’t an amazing player. I just worry that in a few years if the Bears want to bring in an understudy to learn his position that he might not take it well. This is a team looking towards the future to a good team with a long time. It just worries me when they become distracted with a veteran wanting more money and forget to sign their key first round draft pick. The Bears need to get focused and stay on the course they have set for being a solid team for a long time.