Bears Spotlight

June 12, 2012; Lake Forest, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) passes during Bears-Minicamp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

Jay Cutler has thrown for over 18,000 yards in his first six seasons, but he has only been a top 10 fantasy quarterback once in his career when he threw for 4,500 yards in his last season in Denver.  Cutler hasn’t been higher than 17th while playing for the Bears due to poor blocking and turnovers.  There will be no excuses this season with the weapons surrounding Cutler.  Most mock drafts have him falling to the 11-13th selected quarterback which could and should prove to be a great value.  The past few seasons with Martz as coordinator it was way to risky to start Cutler on a weekly basis! With Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffrey along with Earl Bennett and the Hester Package along with Matt Forte, this should be a huge season for Cutler and almost a shoe in for a top 10 quarterback season!

Fantasy Top 10 QB’S

1. Drew Brees-

Drew Brees -Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

In the post-Bountygate world in New Orleans, Brees is now the de facto offensive coordinator.  Brees has not thrown for less than 4,000 yards since arriving in Cajun Country, and without Sean Payton, you have to believe that the Saints offense will be even more pass happy.  There’s also a good chance that they will be trailing more than last year which will mean more Brees passing and #1 Qb in fantasy.

2. Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers-Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

If Rodgers didn’t sit out the last week of the year he would have easily been last season’s #1 fantasy quarterback.  Rodgers had 45 touchdowns to 6 interceptions last season and there’s no reason to believe his production will slip.  The Green Bay Packers still do not have an established running game and have named James Starks as starting running back which translated in fantasy football terms means Rodgers could be passing 50 times a games.  Rodgers has been a top 10 fantasy QB since taking over for Brett Favre, and 2012 should be no exception.

3. Tom Brady

Tom Brady- Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

The old veteran now of fantasy qb’s.  Except for his one pass injury season of 2008, having Brady on your roster has always been a good thing.  The Patriots offense is always adding new twists from The Randy Moss years, to the two tight end passing game, and now Brady has a new toy to play with in Brandon Lloyd.  Brady only threw for 5,200 yards last year, and with the new addition the sky is the limit in 2012.  Draft Brady early because he will not be available very long in any draft.

4. Matt Schaub 

Matt Schaub-Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Schaub will be availble later in the draft then some other guys ranked lower in this ranking for one reason only—HEALTH.  Schaub and the Texans offense always put up great offensive numbers and they have some of the best weapons at ever postition in Foster, Johnson, and Owens.  Schaub has only completed 2 seasons which is alarming but when he’s on the field he puts up some great fantasy numbers.  He may be a red flag risk but the high end reward is there especially the later the round in the draft that he’s still available.

5. Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford- Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE

It’s amazing what health and having arguably the best Wide Recevier in the league can do.  Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards in his first season where he played all 16 games.  Stafford had the luxury of Calvin Johnson which makes the QB job a lot easier.  Stafford will most likely be gone by the 2nd round at the latest in your draft.  The Lions early on will not have much of a running game and how well Leshore fits into the offense is still to be determined on Sundays so expect a lot of balls in the air in Detroit again this season.

6. Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan- Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE

Ryan’s stats have been very consistent and improving every season since entering the league.  He leads a very boring offense which isn’t sexy but still puts up the stats every week.  This season could be a change from the vanilla to maybe neapolitan since Julio Jones after a very slow start came on at the end of the season and could burst on to the scene.  Jones could help Ryan become a top 5 QB like Johnson did for Stafford last season.  The Falcons are not going to abandon the run but it will not be surprising to see a lot more explosive plays from them this season and make Ryan and very good value as a fantasy QB.

7. Eli Manning

Eli Manning-Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

The good side of Eli is that his yards per season has increased the past four seasons and he’s very consistent in his TD’s per year.  The dark side of Eli is the interceptions! Everyone likes to harp on Jay Cutler for bad int’s but Eli has the same bad tendency.  In his Super Bowl season’s he has been able to steer clear of the turnover bug and put up good numbers.  He may be without Hakeem Nicks early on and will be missing Mario Manningham.  This could be a small decline in his numbers from last season but the decline shouldn’t be too drastic not to draft him in the t0p 4 rounds.

8. Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning-Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

The former #1 fantasy quarterback for years now has a new home and address.  Drafting him will be a huge risk with the neck injury, but the reward could be huge if he stays healthy for the entire 2012 season.  Manning will be in a new system with unfamiliar players, but he’s just too good of QB not to believe he will make all the adjustments needed through his endless preparations to be highly successful in Mile High City.  In mocks drafts his position has been very unpredictable so where he gets selected will depend on the fondness for him by you or your league mates.

9. Cam Newton

Cam Newton- Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Cam Newton did something no other rookie quarterback has done in fantasy football…Dominate from day 1.  His turnover ratio does need to improve, last year it was 21-17 but he was unstoppable by the goal line rushing for 14 touchdowns.  Defenses seemed to catch up to Newton’s passing skills  late in the season, so you may want to keep an eye on him during the pre-season action to see if his accuracy has improved, but his natural talents and progression could lead to even greater statistics then his first season.

10. Tony Romo

Tony Romo-Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Forget the fact that Romo chokes in the playoffs or when a possible playoff spot is on the line.  This is fantasy rankings and Romo is a stat machine.  Romo routinely puts up 4,000 yards 30 touchdown seasons.  Dez Bryant could be the next big receiver in the NFL which will be an added plus to Romo owners.  He still has his security blanket in Whitten, and he should have a good running game with Murray and Jones.  There has been little chatter out of Dallas this off season compared to other years which could lead to a Dallas revival!

Breakout Fantasy QB- Alex Smith

Alex Smith- Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-US PRESSWIRE

Just like the Bears off season, the 49ers have added offensive weapons. Oldie but goodie Randy Moss and Super Bowl champ Mario Manningham have been added to a very average 49ers offense.  Smith had a rebirth under first year coach Jim Harbaugh throwing for 17 touchdowns and only 5 picks.  Smith may not leap into a top 10 fantasy qb this season but his stats could see a tremendous jump with the added offensive firepower surrounding him provided Moss plays at a high level for most of the season.

Bust Fantasy QB-Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco- Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

The bizzaro world of Tony Romo.  Flacco has tremendous playoff success but is a liability during the regular season in fantasy football. Flacco hasn’t missed a game and his stats are very similar the past three seasons but there has been no progression.  He has one of the top running backs in the league in Ray Rice, so you know the Ravens will force feed him as much as possible.  This is the season where no progression meets regression for Flacco.  They play the Steelers twice a year so that’s a guaranteed two weeks you won’t want to start him, and they will never go into a game with the philosophy of airing it out.  Steer clear of Flacco as your #1 qb this season.

The ball will be in the air more than ever this season! Who’s your top 10, sleeper, or bust?  Will Jay Cutler be a top 5 fantasy qb? I would be glad to see your lists in the comments section!!

Da BEARS!!!

As you head into the playoffs, beware of your WRs playing against Revis…I am talking to you owners of Roddy White (week 14) and Reggie Wayne (week 15) as Revis could dampen your playoff spirits.  You always have to roll with your studs and White and Wayne qualify as such, but hopefully the rest of your roster can pick you up if Revis continues to climb to the top of the CB mountain.  This is likely the last week of your regular season and you might be jockeying for playoff position, so hopefully I can be some help to you as you fill out your lineups…

Guys I Like

1. Matt Forte vs St. Louis – Playing against the 28th ranked D against the run that has allowed 16 TDs on the ground this season better be able to cure the Bears running game.  If nothing else, maybe this will be a reason to watch the Beloved as they play out the string.
2. DeAngelo Williams vs Tampa Bay – Thankfully, Jake Delhomme is likely to sit this week and the Panthers running game should be in full effect.  Add to that the fact that D-Will has run for 338 yds and 4 TDs against the Bucs in his last 2 games against them and you should be very happy with his performance.  D-Will does have an ankle, but he is expected to be full go on Sunday.
3. Jeremy Maclin @ Atlanta - With DeSean Jackson concussed, Maclin’s targets should increase significantly.  With the Eagles O 3rd in the league in passing plays of more than 20 yds with 53, you can likely count of Maclin for some big numbers.
4. Brandon Marshall @ Kansas City - Denver seems to have righted the ship with Ole Neckbeard at the helm and B-Marsh should shred the KC secondary struggles with tall wide bodied WRs.  B-Marsh should be no exception.  (more…)

Guys I Like this Week

1. Matt Forte vs Cleveland – I am calling Forte out…perform this week or I drop you from 2 of my squads…Cleveland???  Come on…and in the orange jerseys to boot…this has to be his week!!!
2. LeSean McCoy vs NYG – Westbrook’s concussion gives McCoy a chance to shine…not the best matchup, but AZ ran pretty well against the Giants last week.
3. Kevin Smith and Steven Jackson in the Toilet Bowl (StL @ Det) – This is probably the worst game on the schedule this week, but both defenses are suspect and I think both RBs have a chance to shine.
4. LaDanian Tomlinson vs Oakland – I don’t know why because LT has been disappointing, but there is something appealing to me about LT at home versus Oakland with a firm chip on his shoulder that sounds like a winning combo to me in favor of LT owners… (more…)

Meanwhile, the Bengals come off a disappointing home loss to the Texans.  You would have to characterize the Bengals as a surprise team, as they sit atop the tough AFC North with a 4-2 record overall and a mind-numbing 3-0 record in the division with impressive wins against the Steelers and Ravens along with a road win in Green Bay.

Before the season started, I had this as a slam dunk win, but not so fast.  I hate to say it, but these Bengals are for real.  They have discovered a running game with Cedric Benson – yes, that Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer is regaining his old Pro Bowl form.  But fear not Bears fans, this is still a very winnable game.  Here are my Keys to the Game:  (more…)

On to week 6…the Bears are back and I hope my GOOD picks are too…

Stone Tablet Locks – chisel these guys in stone as MUST PLAYS this week. (more…)

I’ve heard a lot made this week about revenge, but I’m not into that idea.  I remember that when Return of the Jedi first came out, it was supposed to be called Revenge of the Jedi, but they changed the title because a Jedi doesn’t seek revenge or at least that was the marketing spin they put on the title change.   Being a Star Wars fan didn’t used to carry such a stigma, but that new Trilogy ruined it.    OK, that’s my geeky Star Wars reference for the day.   Let’s get back to football and the keys to a Bears win.

Jay needs to play under the bright lights

When we last saw Jay Cutler in prime time under the bright lights, it didn’t go so well.   Since the first half of the Packers game, he’s been pretty spot on, completing 70% of his passes and posted three  straight 100+ passer ratings.   I have a feeling that this game is going to be a shootout, so the offense had better come to play.   Jay needs to show the nation what we’ve seen the last few weeks – a calm, cool and collected QB that can control a game.  Last season, Cutler’s Broncos were the only team to deal the Falcons a home loss with a 24-20 win.     (more…)

Stone Tablet Locks – chisel these guys in stone as MUST PLAYS this week.

1. Minnesota DST @ St. Louis – The Lambs OFFENSIVE offense has scored an average of 6 points per game…does anything more need be said???
2. Donovan McNabb vs Tampa Bay – The Tampa DST is 3^rd worst in the league in allowing plays of 20+ yards.  I expect D-Mac to pick up where he left off and shred the Tampa secondary that has been terrible this year.
3. Andre Johnson @ Arizona – The Arizona DST is ranked 30^th against the pass and I expect this game to be a shoot-out of epic proportions.  AJ is generally a must-start, but a downright no brainer this week.

DeCon’s Blessing – given to SLEEPERS to sneak in to grab you some big points.

1. Chester Taylor @ St. Louis – Expect a lot of points in this game…by the Vikings and expect this laugher to be over by halftime, leaving plenty of garbage time for CT to do some damage.
2.  Julius Jones vs Jacksonville – The return of Hasselbeck likely won’t save the Seahawks season, but it should open up some lanes for JJ to exploit.  Believe it or not, JJ is actually a top-12 RB in PPR leagues and certainly worthy of a blessing this week.
3. Tim Hightower vs Houston – The Houston DST has allowed a league-high 8 rushing TDs this season.  As mentioned before, this game should be a shootout and with Houston’s aggressive defensive front, I expect Hightower to get plenty of chances in the passing game, as well as the rushing game.

Bent Over the Altar – you MUST SIT these players because no one wants to be bent over the altar.

1. Denver DST vs NE – The Denver DST is a top-3 scoring DST, but don’t be fooled as they have played subpar competition.  Expect the Evil One in the cut-off hoodie and #12 for the Pats to have a lot to say about bringing the Broncos DST back to earth.
2. Matt Ryan @ San Fran – I’m sorry, but until someone looks good against this defense (and not lucky, Mr. Favre) it is hard to think of anyone going into SF right now and doing any damage offensively…except of course on Nov 12, 2009 when a certain team we all know and love will go visit Coach Singletary and the boys…Matty gets put on ice in this game.
3. Ronnie Brown vs NY Jets – Miami is quietly leading the league in rushing, but with Henne at the helm, expect 8-9 Jets in the box on every play making Henne’s life miserable and wreaking havoc on both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

In Need of a Confession – Teams are ON A BYE and will be skipping services this week.

Bears – Cutler and Forte owners need to plug some holes, but at least the Bears can rest.

Packers – Rodgers and Jennings are about the only offensive players worth having on the Packers.  

Chargers – No Rivers, Gates, Sproles, LT or Vincent Jackson…man, this is a bad week for missing your studs… 

Saints – Brees, Colston, Bush, Pierre Thomas…geez…almost as bad as having the Chargers on a bye in the same week…oh wait, they are too….

How do you fill in the Pews this Week??? 

If David Garrard is still available, grab him or if you are really desperate, I actually like Derek Anderson this week as the Browns face the Bills…two equally hapless franchises. 

Julius Jones and Chester Taylor, mentioned above might still be available in your leagues and could be good fill-ins this week, along with Sammy Morris whose production will increase since Fragile Fred is out for about 4 weeks with an ankle. 

Look towards Mike Sims-Walker, who was a hot add this week, but he may still be available.  Another WR I like is Percy Harvin as I believe the Vikes will roll up a big number on the Lambs.

Visanthe Shaincoe and Brent Celek should be solid contributors this week at the TE position and could be available.

Can I get an “Amen?”

The DeCon has spoken…so let it be written, so let it be done…

I’ll hear your fantasy football confessions at beargoggles.decon@gmail.com.  

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I’ve finally started doing my fantasy football homework with my first draft just a week away.  A lot of draft boards rank the Bears’ Matt Forte and the Jacksonville’s  Maurice Jones-Drew among the top tier of running backs.  If you’re drafting in the top 5, you can probably assume that Adrian Peterson is going #1, but after that, you’ve got Forte, Jones-Drew and the Falcons’ Michael Turner in that top tier of running backs.  Who would you rather get for your team?  Let’s see what the guys over at ESPN think:  (more…)