Oct 22, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Detroit Lions during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

This one’s for all the marbles, Bears fans. It’s Week 17 at Ford Field, and the Chicago Bears will meet the Detroit Lions for the 166^th time with the Bears holding a 95-65-5 edge.  The Lions have lost five of their last seven against the Bears at Ford Field and 12 of the last 15 meetings overall.  You know the Lions would love to play the spoiler and keep the Bears out of the playoffs for the fifth time in the last six years.  Bears QB Jay Cutler has performed well against the Lions, having thrown just one interception and 11 touchdowns in seven career games against them as a Bear.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson has already set the record for receiving yards in a season with 1,892, but you know he would love to be the first wide receiver ever to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark.  The Bears can expect a healthy dose of Calvin, who leads the league with 117 receptions, throughout the game.

Bears WR Brandon Marshall, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns, is rewriting Bears history books, already setting franchise records for catches in a season (113) and receiving yards in a season (1,466).  He also ranks in the Bears all-time top 50 for career receptions (44^th), receiving yards (44^th) and receiving touchdowns (32^nd).  If he can catch three touchdown passes on Sunday, he will also set the franchise record for receiving touchdowns in a season, currently 13 held by Dick Gordon (1970) and Ken Kavanaugh (1947).

Let’s check out some more numbers for this Sunday’s game.

4:  Number of career sacks by Bears DE Julius Peppers against the Lions in five games as a Bear.

6, 0:  Number of touchdowns and interceptions, respectively, thrown by Cutler against the Lions in three career games at Ford Field.

7.8:  Average catches per game by Lions WR Calvin Johnson in 2012.

4:  Averages catches per game by Calvin Johnson against the Bears at Ford Field in four career games.

11:  Number of combined career forced fumbles against the Lions by Peppers (5), Lance Briggs (3) and Charles Tillman (3).

7:  Number of games Bears RB Matt Forte has gained 100 or more yards from scrimmage against the Lions in nine career starts against them.

90:  Yards from scrimmage needed by Forte to reach 1,400 or more for the fifth consecutive season.

10/10/11:  The last time Cutler completed more than 23 passes in a game (against the Lions at Ford Field).

8:  Completions needed by Cutler to pass Jim Harbaugh (1,023) for first on the Bears all-time list.

13:  Consecutive road games the Bears have committed at least one turnover (last game without one was October 10, 2011 at Ford Field against the Lions).

37:  Number of sacks by the Bears defensive line, second most in the NFL this season.

304:  Average total yards per game given up by the Bears defense on the road this season.

435:  Average total yards per game by the Lions offense at home this season.

27.3:  Average points per game given up by the Lions defense at home this season.

10:  Number of defensive (6) and special teams (4) touchdowns scored against the Lions this season.

2:  Number of games where a single Bears receiver other than Marshall gained more than 50 yards (both were Alshon Jeffery).

5:  Number of times the Bears have turned the ball over on their first offensive possession of the game this season. (They are 3-2 in those games.)

1-4:  Bears record this season when they commit more turnovers than their opponents.

4:  Number of punt returns by Bears opponents of seven or more yards.

22:  Number of games since Bears KR Devin Hester has returned a kickoff or punt for a touchdown (Last: 11/13/11 kickoff return against the Detroit Lions).

1:  Number of first quarter scoring drives of 80 or more yards by the Bears this season.

0:  Number of first quarter passing plays of 20 or more yards by the Bears this season.

The numbers do not lie.  The Bears need to get off to a fast start this week and not let the Lions have any hope of winning the game.  Lions QB Matthew Stafford isn’t afraid to throw the ball often, and when he does, the Lions usually lose (they are 1-8 when he throws 50 or more times in a game).  The more times the ball is in the air, the more chances the Bears have at creating turnovers.

This is it.  Four quarters of Cutler running for his life and hoping the defense and special teams can create some magic.  Then routing for the Green Bay Packers for three hours…ew, gross.  But it has to be done.  What a way for the regular season finish up.

Earlier in the week, I took a stab at what I thought was the ideal path for the Bears to get to Dallas.  Step 1 has been completed with the Seahawks’ upset win.  Now the hard part.  I mean the really, really hard part for Bears fans.  We should be rooting for the Packers to beat the Eagles on Sunday.

Those may have been the hardest words I’ve ever had to type, but it could all be worth it.  If the Packers can pull off the win in Philly, the Seahawks come to Soldier Field.   Even though the Bears lost to Seattle earlier this year, they scare me a hell of a lot less than the Eagles.

For one thing, he Seahawks don’t get to bring their 12th man on the road and they’re not the same away from Qwest.  Second, I like the Bears in a revenge game.  Lovie will have the troops revved up to avenge a tough early-season loss.  Third, the Wild Card win at home was the Seahawks’ Super Bowl.  They proved their point, overcoming a double digit point spread and the jeers of the football world as the “worst playoff team ever” to pull the upset.

Enjoy the matchup on Sunday.

Go Pack but most importantly…

BEAR DOWN!!!

(more…)

The Divisional Round of the playoffs features four re-matches from earlier this season.

Baltimore at Tennessee

Last meeting: The Titans edged the Ravens 13-10 when the teams met back in October.  Rookie QB Joe Flacco’s second interception proved costly late in the 4th quarter as he tried to lead the Ravens back after Kerry Collins took the Titans on the decisive drive with aTD hookup to Alge Crumper with under 2 minutes left.

Breakdown: The Ravens looked really impressive in their defeat of the Dolphins.  The Titans are rested and enter the game with only center Kevin Mawae as a major question mark to play.  As much hype as the Ravens’ defense gets, their offense is actually averaging slightly more yards per game than the Titans.  Coupled with the formidable run defense and opportunistic Ed Reed in the secondary, the Ravens look like the team to beat, yet the Titans enter as a 3 point favorite.  Something just doesn’t seem right.  Everything points to Baltimore, but Tennessee is favored.

Key matchup: Titans rushing attack vs Ravens rush defense.

Prediction: One team has the momentum and the stats while the other is favored.  When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

Titans 16-13

Arizona at Carolina

Last meeting: Carolina comes back to beat the visiting team which holds double-digit second half lead.  Sound familiar Bears fans?  Carolina did the same to the Cardinals back in October to defeat Arizona 27-23.   Anquan Boldin tallied two touchdowns while rookie running back Tim Hightower added another.  On Carolina’s side, it was Steve Smith’s 65-yard touchdown reception that did the Cards in.

Breakdown: Arizona surprised many (though not this observer) with their opening round win over Atlanta.  The biggest surprise had to be the Cardinals defense, especially the run defense that kept Michael Turner in check.  That defense will need to step up again this week against the Panthers robust running attack that ranked 3rd in the NFL behind the likes of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart.

Key matchup: Arizona rush defense vs Carolina rushing offense.

Prediction: Carolina is 8-0 at home and they’re rested and ready.  Arizona’s run defense was a one week wonder and without Anquan Boldin, not enough offense to keep up with Carolina.

Panthers 31-24

Philadelphia at New York

Last meeting:These two NFC East team split the season series, with the visitor winning each contest.  The Eagles won 20-14 at the Meadowlands in December, while the G-Men beat the Eagles 36-31 in Philly back in November.  In the Eagles win, Westbrook was on the key for the Eagles as he accounted for over 200 total yards and two TD’s.  In the Giants win, Brandon Jacobs tallied 126 rushing yards with 2 TD’s of his own.

Breakdown: Philly pulled off the upset over the Vikings last weekend thanks in large part to the big play.  The pick-6 from the defense and Westrbook’s huge screen pass touchdown sunk the Vikes.  They’ve been on a roll since the benching of McNabb and definitely come in with the momentum.  The Defending Champs from NY have looked mortal in recent weeks.  In each victory, the winner held the opposing rusher well below his normal average.   

Key matchup: Which rusher will outshine which rush defense? 

Prediction: The Giants might be the champs, but the Eagles come in hot.

Eagles 23-21

 San Diego at Pittsburgh

Last meeting:The Steelers outlasted the Chargers 11-10 when the teams last met in November.  This was another controversial game involving the Chargers, though only the gamblers were affected by this questionable call by the officials.   

Breakdown:The Chargers pulled off the upset last week against the Colts thanks to the big effort by the little running back that could, Darren Sproles, who capably filled the shoes for the injured Ladanian Tomlinson.  Pittsburgh faces injury concerns of their own, as QB Ben Roethlisberger recovers from a concussion suffered December 28^thversus the Cleveland Browns.  I expect the Steelers D to beat up the undersized Sproles and keep him in check.

Key matchup: Chargers passing offense vs Pittsburgh pass defense. 

Prediction:  Pittsburgh comes in with the #1 ranked defense. Defense wins championships. 

 Steelers 19-13

Up in the Metrodome, the Philadelphia Eagles ruined Adrian Peterson’s playoff debut as the Vikings fell 26-14.  Last season’s offensive rookie of the year did his part tallying both of the Vikings’ touchdowns.   The Eagles did just enough offensively, when a Donovan McNabb screen pass to Brian Westbrook turned into a backbreaking 71 yard touchdown with just under 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  Philadelphia also cashed in a Tarvaris Jackson interception for their other TD.

The next round features 4 games that are rematches from earlier this season.  On Saturday, the Ravens head to Tennessee to face the Titans and the Cardinals head east to Carolina.  Sunday’s action features the Eagles heading to the Meadowlands to face NFC East rival Giants while San Diego heads to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers.  I’ll have much more on the matchups later in the week as well as my picks for the Divisional Round.  Hopefully, you didn’t blow your mortgage payment on my picks from last weekend.
BEAR DOWN!!!

After all that the Bears have been through the last couple of weeks, needing consecutive OT wins and getting some help along the way, you might think a win over the Houston Texans would be a foregone conclusion.  That is not the case, my friends.   This is not the Texans team of old; Houston is definitely a team on the rise.  While they are not in the playoff hunt, they can tie a franchise best 8 wins for the second straight season.  They boast a solid 5-2 home record this season, with the losses coming at the hands of Indianapolis and Baltimore, both Wild Card representatives in the AFC heading into the final week of the season.

The Texans offense ranks 3rd in the league, averaging over 377 yards per game.  They feature a rookie runner of their own in Steve Slaton, who comes into Week 17 with a Texans’ record 1190 yards and a 4.8 yards per carry average.   They add a dimension to their offense that the Bears are not very familiar with: a passing game.  Andre Johnson is an absolute beast with 105 catches and a league-leading 1427 yards, while Kevin Walter leads the team with 8 TD catches.  Matt Schaub has done a good job holding on to the ball recently, only committing 3 turnovers since his return from injury.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans rank 25th against the run, so hopefully Ron Turner has a steady diet of Matt Forte in the offensive game plan this week.  Mario Williams is clearly the pass rusher to watch, leading the Texans in sacks, while linebacker DeMeco Ryans leads the team with 102 tackles.   The Texan defense has been a bit streaky this year, holding the Titans to 13 points in a victory two weeks ago, while letting up 27 points in their loss last week to the lowly Raiders.

The Texans head in Sunday’s contest as a 2.5 point favorite.  The Houston Chronicle picks the Bears to pull off the upset and come out of Reliant Stadium with a 24-20 victory.  If they are to do that, the Bears will slow down Andre Johnson, feature a steady dose of Matt Forte and the Special Teams will continue to be special.  Fasten your seat belts Bears fans, it should be an interesting Week 17!

BEAR DOWN!!!