Nov 18 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) waves to the crowd as he leaves the field following the win over the San Diego Chargers at Sports Authority Field.The Broncos defeated the Chargers 30-23. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

After nearly half of a season that didn’t make any sense ,the last three weeks of picks have fell back to form so there hasn’t been any big upsets to thin out the field in survivor leagues.  We haven’t lost but a couple the last couple weeks and are still at 50 people out of over 1,000.  The problem this point forward is the pool of teams playing good football that haven’t already been used is shrinking mightily!   This time of the season it is best to pick the teams that are free of major injury playing good football in their own stadium. One of the hottest teams in th NFL is on the road though against a terrible team, and in years past once a Peyton Manning team started on a roll it could and would run off a lot of victories in a row.

No Brainer on the Road

Denver vs KC Chiefs- Peyton will throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and the Broncos will win with little stress.

The Best Home Team Pick

Bengals over Raiders- The Raiders are playing terrible and after playing losing itself for a month the Bengals have been playing good football for three weeks now and should roll again against the Raiders.

Confidence Leagues

The Dr Jekyll Mr Hyde act by most of the NFL this season has calmed down so the past few weeks has shown few upsets but this weeks matchups are much tighter than the past few weeks with some injuries like the one to Big Ben that will making picking games more dicey this week.

High Confidence (12-13)

1. Denver over KC

2. Cincy over Oakland

Home Cooking Picks (6-11)

1. Indy over Buffalo

2. Chicago over Minnesota

3. Miami over Seattle

4. Jacksonville over Tennessee

5. Philly over Panthers

6. Arizona over St Louis

Too Close to Call (2-5)

1. New Orleans over SF

2. Giants over Packers

3. Baltimore over San Diego

4. Tampa over Atlanta

Upset Special (1)

1. Cleveland over Pittsburgh

Nov 4, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scrambles with the ball during the game against the Minnesota Vikings at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated Minnesota 30-20. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

It’s getting down to the final few teams left in survivor leagues and most people have used all their big guns so it’s time to go off line but not off the range.  One team that has a huge advantage at home is the Seattle Seahawks with their 12th man and the loud stadium.  The thing that is making it tough to beat the Seahawks is their defense which should have a field day on the offensively challenged NY Jets.  The Jets are coming off bye week so maybe they put in a Tebow wrinkle!

No Brainer-

Patriots vs Bills- If you have them still in the chamber it’s time to use them against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Steelers vs Chiefs- This is a horrible Monday Night Game especially with the Steelers on a roll!

The Home Field Advantage-

Seahawks vs Jets- I don’t trust Russell Wilson but he’s still better than Sanchez!

Dolphins vs Titans- The Phins get the Titans while they are still feeling the effects of DA BEARS!!

Confidence Leagues

Last week was very respectable but I still can’t seem to lose my crush on the Eagles and Cowboys! Those two teams are killing me so I’m done with them for now, except for the fact they play each other! There is no way I pick that game right!

High Confidence (7-13)

1. Steelers over Chiefs

2. Patriots over Bills

3. 49ers over Rams

4. Ravens over Raiders

5. Seattle over Jets

6. Giants over Cincy

Divisional Rivals (5-6)

1. Philly over Dallas

2. New Orleans over Atlanta

Toss-Up (1-4)

1. Phins over Titans

2. Chicago over Houston

3. Denver over Carolina

4. Detroit over Minnesota

Good luck in Week #10! Survive, Advance, and Win some cash!

Oct 28, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates a touchdown with teammates during the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Ford Field. Detroit won 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-US PRESSWIRE

After a struggling start the Detroit Lions are on their way, well I don’t really feel that way but they did look a little better offensively this past Sunday which shouldn’t end on their Florida field trip this week. The Lions get to visit the St. Johns River Stadium formerly know as the Gator Bowl which also is known as the visiting team blows out the home team just ask Blaine Gabbert about Chicago and Houston coming to town.  This week comes the pass happy Lions which unless they hang out at the beach all weekend should be able to walk in and easily take a W back to Detroit.

There are a couple of no brainers this week but if you have advanced to Week 9 you probably have used at least one of the teams already.

No Brainer On the Road

Detroit over Jaguars- The Lions really are the home team in Jacksonville.  The Jags played the Packers tight so this might not be a 35 point blow out but it still should not be close either.

No Brainers That Hopefully You Haven’t Used Yet

Houston over Buffalo- The Bills routinely give up tons of yards and now they get the Texans in Houston.. Buffalo D we have a problem!

Green Bay over Arizona- The Cardinals are in a free fall and that’s because their offense has been putrid for weeks now. The Pack doesn’t have Woodsen but they still should shut down the Cards as long as they keep Fitzgerald in check.

On a Roll Pick

Broncos over Cincy- Peyton has the Broncos offense rolling.  It’s on the road but if you need to roll the dice the Broncos should be a solid pick against a pretty weak Bengals defense.

Confidence Picks

After spending last weekend with my brother getting harrassed about my picks I have gone back to the drawing board so to speak.  Last week my upsets lost and my sure things were upset so here are this weeks picks with new and improved confidence.

High Confidence (8-13)

Green Bay over Arizona

Detroit over Jacksonville

Houston over Buffalo

Chicago over Tennessee

Denver over Cincinnati

Baltimore over Cleveland

Mild Upsets (5-7)

Pittsburgh over Giants

Philly over New Orleans

Dallas over Atlanta

Toss ups (1-4)

Seattle over Minnesota

Tampa over Oakland

Washington over Carolina

Miami over Indy

Good Luck in Week #9! Survive, Advance, and Win some Cash!!

October 14, 2012; Philadelphia, PA USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid on the sidelines against the Detroit Lions at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Lions defeated the Eagles 26-23 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-US PRESSWIRE

There is one statistic that is extremely hard to believe, but when making selections for survivor and confidence leagues it could be the most important statistic of this NFL weekend.  Your stat of the week is that Andy Reid is 13-0 in his first game following the bye week.  Yes, under Reid the Eagles have been very good for a long time including reaching four consecutive NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl, but 13-0 in any stat in the NFL is hard to believe and good to know leading into Week #8.  I would even put this in a lock of the week if it wasn’t for the fact that it’s the 6-0 Atlanta Falcons visiting Lincoln Financial Stadium this Sunday to stop one of sports unique stats of the 2000′s.

No Brainer Survivior Pick

If you haven’t used them, the Green Bay Packers at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars is as easy as slow pitch softball in survivor league action!

The Stat Game

Philly over the Falcons.  Atlanta keeps every game close regardless,  Vick will not fumble away this victory.

Road Pick With Very Little Jitters?

The Patriots should put up enough points to easily beat the Rams.

Confidence Leagues

Highly Confident (9-13)

1. Green Bay over Jacksonville

2. New England over St. Louis

3. Chicago over Carolina

4. Giants over Cowboys

5. 49ers over Arizona

Home Cooking Winners (6-8)

1. Jets over Miami

2. KC Chiefs over Raiders

3. Philly over Atlanta

Upset City (3-5)

1. Saints over Broncos

2. Cleveland over Chargers

3. Washington over Steelers

Tossup (1-2)

1. Seattle over Detroit

2. Tennessee over Indy

Good Luck in Week #8! Survive, Advance and win some cash!!!

October 14, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer (3) throws a pass in the second half against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons beat the Raiders 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

First of all if you are still alive in your confidence league, kudos to you! The first six weeks of the season have been a roller coaster of unpredictable proportions, and it is a great accomplishment to still be alive in your survivor league. In my one league we started with 1,100 people and only 73 people have made it to week 7.  This week in the midst of only 13 games there isn’t a slam dunk available, unless you were smart enough to take the new weekly lock of the NFL.  The road team hasn’t won a Thursday Night game in a long time, I’m not sure but it possibly could go back to the Bears shutting out the Dolphins in 2010.

My Pick Of The Week (Unconventional)

Raiders over the Jaguars- The Raiders should have beaten the Falcons and now get the Jags visiting the other side of the county.  This might not be a blow out, but Carson Palmer should lead RaiderNation into a Victory Monday.

The Pick According to the Point Spread

The NY Giants over the Redskins- This is a slam dunk if last weeks Giants show up, but this is 2012 and each week is a different animal.

The Game to Avoid

Patriots over the Jets- Avoid division games especially when Tebow is involved.  Brady should have a big day, but he hasn’t been unbeatable lately either

Confidence Leagues

Last week was a very sad day for me! Under .500 is not just unacceptable but embarrassing.  Even the wife who I’m pretty sure just picked opposite of my picks had a very good day.  This week we rebound and win a week and some cash!

Highly Confident (9-13)

1. Patriots over Jets

2. Raiders over Jags

3. Giants over Redskins

4. Buffalo over Tennessee

5. Chicago over Detroit

Toss-UP (5-8)

1. Indy over Cleveland

2. Dallas over Carolina

3. Houston over Baltimore

4. Minnesota over Arizona

Upset City (2-4)

1. St Louis over Green Bay

2. Tampa over New Orleans

3. Cincy over Pittsburgh

Good Luck in Week #7! Survive, Advance, and Win some cash!!

Sep 23, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden (3) passes the ball during the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Buffalo won 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The NFL is upside down right now teams that are suppose to be good are losing to teams that are bad, and who would have thought the Saints would be 0-3 when they face the 1-2 Packers?  The New England Patriots are under five hundred for the first time since 2004.  The Cardinals are 3-0 for the first time ever??  Time to rethink and buckle down in both survivor and confidence leagues.  Don’t pick with 2010 goggles on, but pick with what you have seen the first 3 weeks.

Survivor League NO BRAINERS

-Baltimore over Cleveland- Thursday night cupcake for the Ravens

- Houston over Tennessee- Unless you are betting on another 6 crazy TD’s for the Titans this will be a W for the Texans

On The Road Survivor Gamble

- New England over Buffalo- Do you really think that Patriots can really lose 3 straight games?

- Cincinnati over Jacksonville- Can Bengals outscore Blaine Gabbert…. I would hope so

Should be More Confident But I’m not

- Cardinals over Miami- This should be a no brainer right?

- Atlanta over Carolina- Division games are never cupcakes in the NFC South

Confidence Leagues

I’m over my pathetic showing so far!  .500 is pathetic but it’s time to forget the past and focus on this week!

High Confidence (11-15)

1. Arizona over Miami

2. Baltimore over Cleveland

3. Houston over Tennessee

4. Atlanta over Carolina

5. Denver over Oakland

Confident (8-10)

1. Packers over Saints

2. Seattle over St Louis

3 Bengals over Jaguars

Tossup (5-7)

1. Chiefs over Chargers

2. 49ers over Jets

3. Washington over Tampa Bay

Upsets (1-4)

1. Chicago over Dallas

2. Vikings over Lions

3. Bills over Patriots

4. Eagles over Giants

Bye Weeks: Indy, Steelers

Good Luck, Survive, Advance and Win the Cash!!

Sep 9, 2012; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans cheerleader entertains fans during the second half against the New England Patriots at LP Field. New England defeated Tennessee 34-13. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-US PRESSWIRE

Congratulations you survived Week #1 now don’t get distracted!  It’s still a long trail in survivor to get to the end of the path!  Let’s look at our rules for making our week #2 pick.  Map out your first quarter, try to save good teams, avoid the herd game, and avoid taking a road team at all costs.

Mapping out my first quarter- I have planned to take in the first four weeks: Chicago, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta.  New Orleans next week will have to be scrutinized especially if they poorly again this week on defense.

Try to save good teams- There is only one match-up I really like this week or New England wouldn’t be used.

Avoid the Herd Game- The New York Giants at home versus Tampa Bay Bucs.  Giants are more than a TD favorite but they are not a September team and even though I think the Giants will win this game I have very little confidence in the Giants.

Avoid taking road teams.  Baltimore looked great Monday night but taking them on the road against Philly is dangerous

Here are my Week #2 picks for this week

NO-BRAINERS

1. New England- They get Arizona at home at 1pm.  West coast team rarely win these match ups and very rarely against the Patriots

Cautiously Optimistic

1. Ny Giants-  I would avoid this game because the Giants play well in December and January not September

2. San Diego- Another team to avoid in September, but if Ryan Matthews play I like them a lot more

3. San Fransisco- They throttled Green Bay, if they play like that Sunday they should handle Detroit’s offense too

Unorthodox

1. Cincinnati- Home opener should be able to turnover Weeden routinely

2. Houston- On the road against Gabbert.  Houston defense should dominate, but it is on the road

Last Week- 3-0 in No-Brainer Picks!

Confidence Picks  

Review of Last week

Top Tier-4-1

Middle Tier-3-2

Low Confidence 0-3

Toss-Up- 2-1

Certainly, this was not my best week, but after a rough week #1 going 9-7, week#2 has nothing but bright skies and winning pick ahead this week!

Top Tier (12-16 Confidence Picks)

1. New England over Arizona

2. Houston over Jacksonville

3. NY Giants over Tampa Bay

4. Cincinnati over Cleveland

5. New Orleans over Carolina

Middle Tier (7-11 confidence picks)

1. Dallas over Seattle

2. Washington over St Louis

3. San Diego over Tennessee

4. San Fransisco over Detroit

5. Pittsburgh over NY Jets

Low Confidence (4-6 points)

1. Oakland over Miami

2. Kansas City over Buffalo

3. Minnesota over Indy

Toss-Up (1-3 confidence picks)

1. Denver upsetting Atlanta

2. Philly over Baltimore

Survive, Advance and win the cash! Good Luck in Week #2!