If I had a sister, I would’ve been kissing her quite a bit this year, which is really only accepted in the south.  Ok, I’m kidding!  I had another 500 day, but it is always better than being under. I tried to go the over/under route last week and it didn’t work out exceptionally well, but I have a feeling that my games wouldn’t have either.  I won a couple weekly fantasy leagues, so that was good, especially since I’m out of a year-long league.  I was surprised to see Washington put up so many points against Cleveland last week which totally messed up my over call on that one.  The Miami/Jacksonville game was a sleeper which I correctly anticipated.  I didn’t think the Bears would pull it off last week and I was correct, but I did feel as if some more points would be scored.  Regardless, that was just a frustrating game on so many different levels, so I’d rather not rehash it and get on to the business at hand, winning some games this week:

PICK 3:

Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Miami -Buffalo was absolutely embarrassed last week by Seattle giving up a total of 50.  When a team lays an egg like that, the betting public often jumps against them the following week.  In a division game of two poor teams, I always like taking the points.

New England -14  @ Jacksonville -earlier in the season, I would’ve been more afraid to give up 14 – especially after the Patriots let the Cardinals beat them at home.  However, the Patriots have once again rounded up just in time for the playoffs and their defense has gotten better.  As always, they love running up the score too.

Eagles +6.5 vs Washington - Washington has become a hot commodity for the public and the Eagles are supposed to be packing up after a difficult season.  That 6.5 point sure sucks you into taking the Redskins doesn’t it?  All they have to do is win by a touchdown.  I don’t like it.  The Eagles put up a fight against their division rival before going into the off-season.

UPSET SPECIAL

New Orleans +3 @ Dallas - I don’t know why I just can never pick Dallas to win a game – especially at home.  The Saints to me still are a very dangerous team and they go into Dallas and play the role of spoiler.  Drew Brees has let me down before this season as my pick, not on Sunday.

THE BELOVED

Bears -6 @ Arizona – if not now, when?  If not the Bears, then whom? If you can’t go to AZ and win by 6, I don’t want to watch the last game and I could care less what the other NFC teams do.  Go play the damn game and show up!

LAST WEEK:  Pick 3:  1-2     Beloved:  1-0   

SEASON:    Pick  3:   20-21-1     Upset Special:  6-6-1      Beloved:  7-6-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  37-36-5

I ran out of time to get my Thursday Night pick in.  Looking at this week, I’d like to run out of time too because there are some exceptionally difficult games to pick this week.  Last week, I was a little under 500, due in large part to our Bears once again being exceptionally underwhelming.  I think we all know what is on the line this week, I can’t believe once again it has come to this.  You need to win the games you should win, plain and simple.  I’d rather have people complaining that the only teams the Bears beat are the crappy teams than have them lose to those crappy teams and doubt them for a different reason.  Sorry, I’ll step off the soapbox, but what would you expect, it’s Packers Week.  Since this is an exceptionally difficult week, I figured I’d focus on a different concept of gambling, the OVER/UNDER.  I’ve decided to pick 3 games’ over/under scores and the Beloved – let’s see where that leads me:

PICK 3

Washington/Cleveland 39.5 – I am going to choose to go under on this game.  Cleveland’s strength is in it’s defense.  With RG3 dinged up, his mobility is going to be impacted, meaning Washington’s offense will be limited.  I don’t see this one putting up 6 touchdowns.

Miami/Jaguars 38 - this is also one of those games that will go under.  Don’t you see it now?  10-3 halftime score.  17-13 final score.

Bears/Packers 43.5 – Aaron Rodgers versus dinged up Bears Defense.  Bears offense shows up against weak Green Bay Defense.  The old battle of the Black and Blue goes over in a December game that doesn’t remind anyone of it being Wintertime.  I’m taking the over.

The Beloved

Packers -1 vs the Bears - painful to write, painful to look at.  I obviously won’t be rooting this way, but unless the Superbears we saw earlier in the season show up, they won’t win this one.  Does this become the springboard game that catapults them into the playoffs?  I’m really hoping, but a little pessimistic.  Sorry fans.

LAST WEEK:  Pick 3:  2-1      Upset Special: 0-1    Beloved:  0-1   

SEASON:    Pick  3:   19-19-1     Upset Special:  6-6-1      Beloved:  6-6-1   Thursday Night 4-3-2  =  35-34-5

OUCH!  Rough week last week.  Another crazy week in the NFL.  Just a couple of rhetorical questions.  Could you imagine if the Rams/49ers tied again?  Are people done annointing the inconsistent Giants Superbowl Champs again? Why did Houston’s Defense have to show up last week – where were you the previous two? What in the world is wrong in Philadelphia? Can you believe the Colts are going to make the playoffs?  What happened to the Bears Defense last week?  How come they didn’t have an answer for a scrambling rookie quarterback?  Why don’t the Bears just run hitches with Marshall all the way up the field? Oh well, onto Week 14 and a big Fantasy Playoff Week:

Denver -10 @ Oakland – I can’t imagine this one being close.  I understand it is in Oakland and it’s a division game.  However, Oakland is falling apart and Denver is gearing up for the playoffs.  Manning is getting another prime opportunity to show that he’s back and the NFL network cringes over another halftime channel change by its fans.

LAST WEEK:    Pick 3: 1-2               Upset Special 0-1             Beloved 0-1

SEASON:    Pick  3:   17-18-1     Upset Special:  6-5-1      Beloved:  6-5-1   Thursday Night 3-3-2  =  32-31-5

Wednesday/Early Thursday evening was a little too crazy to get a pick in for the New Orleans/Atlanta game.  However, unlike in the past, I think I’m happy that I didn’t because I was leaning towards the Saints with an upset.  Atlanta is frequently just getting by or beating teams by a narrow margin, so I was thinking that since it was still a dome and NO has their backs against the wall, they’d sneak one out.  Glad I didn’t put that in writing, at least prior to the game anyway.  Checking back in on last weekend, I had another above 500 day which I’ll always take.  Indy took care of Buffalo by seven. I’m glad that the Bears got them the first game of the season, and even noted that in my first post of the year when I picked the Bears against the Colts.  The Rams are a better team that Arizona and finally broke their losing streak.  Do you think Arizona fans were thinking playoffs when the Cards were 4-0?  Denver only won by 8, so they didn’t cover.  They sleepwalked through that game and they’re lucky they didn’t lose to the Chiefs like the Bears did last year around this time (December 4th to be exact).  Drew Brees started throwing more to Defensive players than his receivers against the 49ers preventing my upset special from coming through.  Most importantly, our Beloved took care of the Viqueens and will do so again next week.  It’s nice to get up on them early to take Peterson out of the game.  In the meantime, the Packers got embarrassed by the Giants last Sunday Night.  Do you think everyone is in a panic up in Green Bay the same way they respond around here when the Bears lose?  Oh well, on to Week 13:

Pick 3:

 San Francisco -7.5 v@ St. Louis – There are a lot of reason to pick the Rams here.  Last time these two played, it took 5 quarters to decide it, and it was decided with a sister kiss.   This game is a home game for St. Louis and San Fran just spent their last weekend playing a difficult emotional game vs. the Saints.  The 49ers could totally look past this game, but Harbaugh won’t allow it and they still are eyeing that first round bye in the playoffs.  After this game is over, people will wonder why it wasn’t a double-digit spread.

NY Giants -1 @ Washington - Let’s just say that I won’t be disappointed if I lose this one.  Like Green Bay to an extent, Washington will have a tough time slowing down the Giants offense in this one.  Manning’s “dead arm” will be alive and well vs. this porous pass defense.  As good as RG3 is, he can’t play defense too.

Indianapolis -5 @ Detroit -I cant’ believe I’m taking 3 Road favorites, but it is hard not to.  The Colts have a tendency to keep games close (between 3-6), although they have been blown out a couple of times (vs. Bears, Jets, NE).  Calvin is starting to come on, but Detroit just isn’t what everyone thought they were going to be this year and the Colts are opposites as well.  These are two pretty even teams so I’ll take the 5, even with the Lions at home.

Upset Special

Tennessee +6.5 vs Houston - Houston’s Defense has been a little porous lately with all of their injuries (believe me, I know, they’re my fantasy defense).  With New England on the horizon for Houston, something tells me this one is going to be a little closer than everyone expects it to be, I’ll take the home team and the points in this one.

The BELOVED

Bears -3.5 vs Seattle -Seattle is not good on the road, unless it is Chicago.  The Bears offensive line shuffling and injuries have kept this line a little lower, which plays right into our hands, here.  The Bears embarrassing loss is still on the minds of everyone, despite their solid performance vs. the Vikings last week.  The Bears Defense will take care of Seattle’s offense, and the Bears are going to mix it up enough to put points on the board.  When the Bears offense puts up at least 11 points – they win.  I think they can pull that off, don’t you?

LAST WEEK:    Pick 3: 2-1                 Upset Special 0-1             Beloved 1-0

SEASON:    Pick  3:   16-16-1     Upset Special:  6-4-1      Beloved:  6-4-1   Thursday Night 3-3-2  =  31-26-5

I apologize that my post was not a completed product the other night.  I was staying at a hotel and I either had site issues or WIFI issues and thought my draft was complete when it was published, but obviously something was amiss.  What is even more disheartening is I had New England covering, but since it wasn’t in print for our viewers, I can’t count it.  Regardless, of my record on Turkey Day, those were absolutely fantastic games.  I mean, the Patriots/Jets game got out of hand, but it was rather comical to watch as New England tallied 35 in the 2nd Quarter.  You had to love the Houston/Detroit game going to OT and having both kickers miss game winners for their teams.  I mean, I wasn’t excited because Hanson is my fantasy kicker, but I never mind watching Detroit lose.  The Dallas/Washington game got exciting as well once Dallas realized that they were playing a football game.  They may have been able to pull it out versus Cleveland, but RG3 continues his phenomenal rookie run and didn’t let Dallas pull one off in the end.  It was  a great day to be on the couch watching the games and they were entertaining enough to keep me there.  I hope you all enjoyed your Thanksgiving Day!  Now, onto the weekend, where there are slim-pickins:

PICK 3

Indianapolis -3 vs Buffalo - Indy is coming off of an embarrassing loss to New England (wasn’t as bad as the Jets in my opinion, though) and Buffalo is puffy-chested from their win against the inconsistent Miami Dolphins.  Indy is in an unbelievable Wild Card position playing at home against another up and down team.  The Colts step up at home and re-find themselves to put the Patriots loss in the rearview mirror.

Denver -10 vs KC -it’s not easy to take a Division Team, playing on the road, at Arrowhead no less, giving 10 points.  However, when you have  a hot team playing a not team, sometimes those variables don’t always play into it.  Manning will have this covered by halftime.

St. Louis +1 vs Arizona - the Rams are reeling, but right the ship against a team that is also falling apart.  Bradford and Jackson lead the Rams to a needed victory over a team that was once thinking playoffs at 4-0, but now find themselves at 4-6.

UPSET SPECIAL

New Orleans +1 vs. San Fran – No, I’m not upset about last week (well, I am, but it is not impacting this pick).  The Saints are hot and I surely wouldn’t want to be facing them right now.  They have a very possible shot at making the playoffs as a wild card at this pace.  It won’t be easy for San Fran to play them in the Superdome regardless of who their quarterback is.  The Saints will not come out flat like the Bears and this one will turn into a knock-down-drag-out with the Saints coming out on top.

The BELOVED

Bears (-5?) vs Minnesota – well, my normal lines have not been posted for this game, but I was able to find a -5 spread out there for the Bears.  Despite the fact that I think it will probably be lower by game-time, I’ll still take the Bears giving 5.  Games like last week against the 49ers happen.  They happen all around the league every week, we’re just not used to them.  Why don’t you ask New Orleans how they felt losing to Carolina in Week 2?  New England to Arizona in Week 2?  San Fran to Minnesota in Week 3?  Green Bay to Indy in Week 4?  New Orleans to Denver in Week 8?  Whether they are blow-outs or unexpected losses, they can happen at any time and you just regroup and re-plan.  Don’t worry Bears fans, every team has a weakness, ours just happens to be the O-line.  The Bears will figure out how to work through it and will gameplan accordingly.  The Vikings are not as good as their record and with Percy Harvin out, time to stack the box.  Bears by 10.

Thanksgiving Result: 0-1-1 (To be included in Thursday Night standings)

SEASON:            Pick  3:   14-15-1     Upset Special:  6-3-1      Beloved:  5-4-1   Thursday Night 3-3-2  =  28-25-5

Finally!  I was starting to think I should give up on my Pick 3.  This week brought me back to my senses after a rough stretch.  It all evens out.  I told you about those Brownies.  Dallas wanted to give that one away, until the end.  I was happy with the outcome because the Browns are now sitting with just 2 wins and 6 games left and I don’t think that the Cowboys are going to be a threat to the Bears making the playoffs.  I got lucky with the Packers win and was very upset with Detroit.  They totally should’ve won that game and Mason Crosby was single-handedly trying to let the Lions win.  I didn’t want that cover, but I got it.  The Chargers sealed my 3-0 with a late touchdown, I’ll take it.  Love those end of the game covers because Lord knows I’ve lost plenty in the last minute too.  Oh well, onto my TURKEY DAY edition, I’ll pick all three games for your holiday betting entertainment:

Houston -3 vs Detroit – most people would jump on this because it looks like a no-brainer, which scares me a little bit.  However, the simple fact is that Detroit knows how to prepare for these games – short week, early game on Thanksgiving. This will be the first time Houston plays on Thanksgiving.  Houston just had a…unnecessarily crazy, exceptionally aggravating, thank goodness win against Jacksonville on Sunday.  Detroit lost one they should’ve won against their division rival Green Bay Packers.  This is a must-win for Detroit, it is a “we need to look a little better” game for Houston.  Despite the Lions backs being against the wall and it being a home Thanksgiving game, I’m still picking the Texans.

Dallas -3.5 vs Washington – gosh, I’d love to stay away from this.  I see this game wrecking my record for the week.  Everything points to Washington this week which is exactly why Dallas is going to show up.  We will here RG3′s name 187 times on Sunday (that’s the over/under)

WEEKEND Result: Pick 3: 3-0    Upset Special 0-1   Beloved 1-0

SEASON:            Pick  3:   14-15-1     Upset Special:  6-3-1      Beloved:  5-4-1   Thursday Night 3-2-1  =  28-24-4

Jay Cutler and the Bears are rising to the top of NFL Power Rankings.

We have all heard Bill Parcells line, “You’re as good as your record says you are,” and it looks like people are hesitantly starting to believe it about the 2010 Chicago Bears.  College football has the BCS and the NFL has their power rankings.  Yes, power rankings are very arbitrary and subjective and honestly can be a waste of time to read.  But, who doesn’t check them out now and again just to disagree with 90% of the picks?  At least some people are finally giving the Bears some love, so here’s a look at a few top ten lists from around the web:

(more…)

As I took a look back at the 2010 Chicago Bears season to date, I found myself wondering, how did this rag tag group of players win seven games?  Then, as I read about the Eagles CB Ellis Hobbs being out for the season and CB Asante Samuel possibly out this week, it hit me.  The Bears have been unbelievably healthy all season and the familiarity they have had with each other has bred success.  That worries me the most.

The only significant injuries that the Bears have sustained were LB Hunter Hillenmeyer’s concussion, which landed him on the IR during the preseason, and a finger injury to untested, but talented rookie S Major Wright, who has missed five games.  Other than that, a guy or two have missed a game here or there, every once in awhile.  To put it simply, the football gods have been nice to the Bears this year.  To me, it just sounds a little too good to be true, don’t ya think?

(more…)