Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers (Part 1)
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Tier 6: Old Reliable
Proven commodities that are good for around 80 catches a year but lack breakaway speed and the upside that gets you excited about watching them play. At the end of the day the most points win, not the most highlights, and these guys will get you 10+ every week.
24.) Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – I already wrote about Michael Floyd becoming the Cards #1 WR, but Fitz is still going to be Palmer’s favorite red zone target due to his size, elite body-control and reliable hands. At this point of his career Fitz is more of a possession receiver who should be good for 75 catches, but he hasn’t broke 1,000 yards since 2011. He doesn’t have the upside he once did, but should give you a consistent 10-12 fantasy points per week.
25.) Roddy White, Falcons – It’s hard not to get excited about White’s potential after watching Hard Knocks, but keep in mind that he is 33 and struggled to stay healthy last season for the first time in his career. Once it starts breaking down, it rarely stops. White still has the talent to a solid #2 WR in fantasy and he should have some big games this year, just be prepared for him to miss a few as well.
26.) Marques Colston, Saints – The addition of speedy rookie Brandin Cooks and the improvement of 2nd-year player Kenny Stills are going to take some targets away from Colston, but he is healthy this year so he should be able to do more with the ball after the catch. Colston is still a solid #2 in my book, but at 31 I think he is going to decline a bit moving forward.
Tier 7: Solid #2 Options w/ Upside
You don’t want to rely on these guys to put up big stats every week but they are capable of the occasional difference-making 20+ game and won’t hurt you that bad on off weeks.
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27.) T.Y Hilton, Colts – With Reggie Wayne back and Hakeem Nicks in town, Hilton will likely get less than the 140 targets (8.75 / game) he saw from Andrew Luck last season. Luckily with his speed he doesn’t need that many catches to rip off a big play. Even with Wayne & Nicks on the field, Hilton is the Colts most dynamic receiver and Luck will find a way to get him enough touches to be a solid #2 in fantasy.
28.) Torrey Smith, Ravens – Smith increased his catches (+160) and yardage (+273) from 2012, but his TDs were cut in half (8 to 4). Does that make any sense to you? One reason for the decrease is that the Ravens stopped throwing bombs to Smith (21% of passes) as often as they did in the past (30% in 2012). This could have had something to do with the lack of protection from the O-line, an issue that should be improved this year. With more time for Flacco to throw, we should see Smith’s deep pass percentage get back up to around 30%, his TDs back to the 7-8 range and his overall rank back in the top 20.
29.) Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos – Decker’s replacement in Denver couldn’t ask for a better situation. He’s not the deep threat or red-zone weapon that Decker was, but has much better speed and should excel at mid-range routes like he did with the Steelers. He’s probably 3rd on the pecking order behind Thomas and Welker, but Denver threw the ball roughly 80 more times than Pittsburgh did last year so he may see a slight increase in targets. His catch percentage and overall numbers should improve significantly with Manning as his QB as well. I think Sanders is a lock for 1,000+ yards this year due to the Manning effect and 10 TDs wouldn’t surprise me.
30.) Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Has but up a couple of decent seasons, averaging (66, 858, 6) in 2011-2012 before missing all of 2013 with an ACL injury. Maclin has never proven he can be a legit #1 but he will have his chance this year in Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. The fact that DeSean Jackson had a career season as the Eagles #1 WR is leading many to believe Maclin will as well, but he has never made it through a 16 game season or had a 1,00 yard season. I am cautiously optimistic that Maclin has a breakout year but won’t break the bank to have him on my roster either. I am projecting a modest uptick in his numbers with 80 catches, 1,000, and 8 TDs.
31.) Julian Edelman, Patriots – 2013 was the first season that Edelman managed to play 16 games, so counting on him to do it again is a stretch. If he does, he should come close to his 100-reception 2013 season because the Pats still have plenty of question marks at receiver and Edelman became Brady’s favorite target last year by catching 70% of the passes thrown his way. Edelman does most of his work between the 20s, so probably won’t put up big TD numbers, but a 100 catch, 1,000+ yard season is pretty solid production from your #2 WR.
32.) Eric Decker, Jets – Tebow to Manning to Geno Smith. What a roller coaster for Eric Decker. He put up an average of 85/1100/12 the last two years catching perfectly placed passes from Peyton Manning. That’s over. It’s going to be a little different for Decker catching Geno’s errant throws while fighting off double coverage since he’s the only legitimate WR on the roster. In Decker’s defense, he managed to catch 9 TD passes from Tim Tebow, so it’s not like he’s just gotten lucky the last few years. Decker has a knack for getting open, great size, and excellent hands. Even in the wasteland that is the Jets, I think Decker manages a 75, 1000, 9 season.