Allen Robinson is expected to sign a big deal with the Chicago Bears this off-season. Can he have the impact of a number one receiver in the offense?
Allen Robinson was paid to be a number one wide receiver in the NFL over the next three seasons. In annual salary, Robinson ranks ninth, tied with Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. Coming off of an ACL injury there are real questions as to whether or not he can be that top tier wide receiver that he will be paid to be. His most recent performance is so far in the rearview mirror it is tough to remember exactly what he can bring. After going back through his 2016 season, the fact of the matter is that at age 24, there is a great chance for him to bounce back into being a game-changing wide receiver.
Route Running
A skill that Robinson brings that should bounce back after the injury is his ability to run routes. For his size, he is a fluid mover with light feet. Robinson is smooth in his ability to move and does a great job of selling routes. Could some breaks be concerning? Maybe. But his smoothness and fluidity should overcome it.
Watch this comeback route. Every step is selling a different movement. His body moves fluidly as he gets the cornerback to open his hips and shut down the inside as he turns and accepts a curl route to the outside shoulder.
He is very proficient in being able to create space quickly off of line of scrimmage. He squares up the cornerback, breaks hard to the outside to cut upfield for a deep route. However, as he gets the cornerback to bite on the deep route, he is cutting inside. Look at the space he creates. No Bears receiver on the roster can do this.
The in route was a specialty for Robinson. He had 10 receptions for 123 yards and three touchdowns on inward breaking routes in the short passing game.
Robinson also has a diverse route tree. He is able to create with double moves and routes that involve change of speed and direction.
His footwork, body fluidity and ability to branch routes off of each other allow him to extend routes down the field and continue to create space.
Creating Space
Robinson is a fluid route runner, and also a smart one. In the play below, he is running across the middle of the field. However, he notices the defense is in zone and that the linebackers are all shifting with the quarterback to the right. Rather than continuing to move right with the defense, he stops in space and provides an easy target for his quarterback. There are a variety of ways that he can create without the ball.
Again, Robinson is able to sit down in the zone in the play below. He is open space. However, watch how as he continues to slide back to pick up extra yards behind him.
Yards After the Catch
One thing that some are going to point to in terms of weaknesses that are in the game of Allen Robinson would be his ability to create after the catch. In 2016, he averaged 2.7 yards after the catch, one of the worst rates in the NFL. For comparison, Cameron Meredith averaged 4.7 yards after the catch in his last healthy season. However, creating after the catch is something that Robinson can do.
He can do it as shown above by picking up every last yard while he waits for the ball. He can also fight for yards in the short passing game. Watch the balance and strength to regroup after shaking the tackle and fighting for more.
However, he can also get loose in the open field. Do not discount his ability to gain speed an find space after the catch.
His ability to see and understand the defense shows in his ability to find space in zone. It also shows in his ability to create after the catch. Speed, vision, and body fluidity that his strong route running show in the play below. Robinson changes directions and moves into open space with speed and aggression.
Bad Passes
Arguably the biggest reason in which his yards after the catch were so low likely had to do with quarterback play. Blake Bortles improved significantly from 2016 to 2017. Understanding that and understanding that Bortles was still below average in 2017 can help recognize the issues in Robinson’s statistics.
Low yards after the catch and a low catch rate can very easily be chalked up to Blake Bortles more than Robinson.
The bounce pass was a pass attempt Allen Robinson saw all too often.
Robinson creates down the field but gives up on a route he sees flail into the sidelines. He severely undertows the second pass. Robinson fights back for a chance, but cannot overcome the poor pass.
Robinson again finds a soft spot in the zone. However, Bortles finds the sidelines and leaves Robinson hanging. 69% of intended targets to Robinson fell incomplete without Robinson even being able to make a fair attempt at the ball.
Almost Catches
In fact, in a game of inches, Allen Robinson could have been in an Odell Beckham territory of receiver had his passes not been so potently poor. Had Robinson held onto the pass below, he would have been a highlight reel superstar.
Bortles missed him deep, missed him short, he missed him over the middle of the field, and to the sidelines.
This was inches away from being a game-changing first down.
One thing that you can see from Allen Robinson in all of these failed attempts is a great catch radius and body control that can bring better statistics.
Catch Radius
His catch radius kept some of Bortles poor passes in the ballpark, and also made Robinson a few extra completions. At 6’2″ with 32″ arms, he is going to have a wide radius to catch passes. However, Robinson is able to use every last inch. He explodes out of the gym and tested in the 87th percentile in the broad and vertical jump. That combined, with his body fluidity and length, makes for him to a wide ranged target.
The play below is not only an incredible use of his catch radius but also a savvy job to create on the outside despite it being shut off. His hard step inside fakes the cornerback and gives Bortles a layup. Bortles misses, but Robinson saves the day.
Every last inch is needed to haul this pass in.
The catch radius to lay out and make the catch is on display. On top of that, he is able to get up, regain balance, and once again fight for extra yards after the catch.
He was somehow able to turn this pass into a completion. This is not just a great display of a massive catch radius, but also great body control to find himself in bounds.
Body Control
It shows in his route running and catch radius, but his body control is another elite quality that should show post ACL injury.
In the play below, he shows elite body movement and control. The cornerback is cutting off the sideline, pushing Robinson towards the safety in the middle. However, a hard shoulder fake to the inside sways the cornerback’s movement and frees Robinson up to the sideline. Robinson turns his body, tracks the ball and lays out quickly to make the diving catch in the nick of time.
The play below is another strong comeback route. He is able to sell the deep pass, get the cornerback committed to it before turning on him for great separation. However, watch his body on his break back to the ball. He is in concert as he is able to get his body turned to find the pass. From there, he is able to find the football, control his body and make the sliding catch towards the sideline.
Below is another comeback route as he brings in a pass while he turning his body around. Timing was another weakness of Blake Bortles. However, Robinson was typically quick to adjust to awkwardly timed passes.
Weaknesses
Seperation questions
Arguably the biggest question mark aside from health involving Allen Robinson would be his ability to create separation. The catch radius and body control are nice, and can make some issues, however, there is no doubt that he does not create the most separation.
In fact, in 2016, only Kelvin Benjamin and Dez Bryant saw less separation on their targets than Allen Robinson. He does not have elite speed, and when he is not able to get that quick break near the line of scrimmage with his fluid route running, he is not able to to get that separation down the field.
However, some of this can also be attributed to the decisions that Blake Bortles makes. He is not afraid to throw it to Robinson, no matter what.
Drops
While separation can be a question, drops is a question. Some of his drops were exaggerated by diving attempts, as shown above. However, Robinson is prone to letting the easy one go. He had eight true drops last season. Most of them seem to be concentration drops. While Robinson is good at setting himself up after the catch and seeing the field, there is a chance that sometimes he is shifting his focus a split second too early, and leaving himself prone to mistakes.
Physicality questions
There are also some questions about how physical he is as a receiver. While he can and does live off of contested catches, most of them are situations where he can out jump or outsmart his opponent. There are some situations where a lack of physical strength comes back to bite him.
Xavier Rhodes, an imposing quarterback and division rival had a great day against Robinson. Plays like the one below set the tone, and the physicality caused a drop. From there, Robinson had just one catch for 17 yards on four targets.
Chris Harris, another strong cornerback was able to get his hands on the ball while Robinson was bringing it in. Lack of separation to keep Harris around combined with the physicality to poke the ball loose resulted in an interception.
Those are elite cornerbacks, but the questions showed throughout the season. If he gives cornerbacks a chance to break on him, he struggles to complete the reception.
He also can be knocked off track by physicality as well. In the play below, an incompletion has to be placed on Robinson as a hip check throws him completely off balance and unaware of the pass coming towards him.
Upside in physicality
While his playing strength can be an issue, the reason drops and separation could be bigger issues are the positives he displays while playing tough football as well.
As shown below, he is able to fight through contract to not only make the catch but also maintain balance and pick up yards after the catch. He is fighting for every last yard. There is no doubt the will to fight is here.
Robinson is still able to get separation despite being held through his route. He is pulled back as the ball comes in but concentrates and hauls in an off-target pass.
Again, Robinson is able to not only fight through contact but create significant separation over the middle of the field. This is another play where yards after the catch ability is hindered by quarterback play.
Lastly, Robinson is able to fight back through the cornerback to get to this pass and haul it in. He fights for the first down after the catch.
Summary
Robinson brings strengths as a proficient route runner in movement and understanding. The understanding adds to an underrated player after the catch. He brings a wide catch radius to strong size and body control. The combination erases accuracy and makes uncatchable passes seem in the realm of possibility.
Questions lie firmly in his health first. However, it is fair to note he is still 24 years old the day he signed with no other significant questions aside from his ACL. Physicality is an issue in contested catches, but his body control and catch radius can ease that pain. He lacks getting separation, but his quarterback was certainly a big factor in that, as well as his low completion percentage. However, drops are likely going to be the biggest question mark when seeing if Robinson can enter the tier of elite wide receivers.
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Still, the fact of the matter is that while Mitchell Trubisky has a long way to go in his recognition and processing, there is no denying he is a more accurate quarterback than what Allen Robinson dealt with in 2016.
Robinson can create the quick separation to be effective in quick passing. This can ease the stress on Trubisky and develop a report with his big weapon early. With a more accurate quarterback who can get Robinson passes in stride, there is no doubting his yards after the catch is going to go up. The quick routes and easy connections that can turn into big plays will open up deep passing down the field, where Robinson can truly dominate.
Adding in Trey Burton over the middle, as well as Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen as gadget weapons, this team can develop a variety of ways to expose Allen Robinson against defenses.
The Bear Goggles may be on, but the tape does not lie. Allen Robinson could be a top ten wide receiver in the NFL and it could be a quick as next season.