The Chicago Bears may be able to win a game or two with Chase Daniel. However, if they want to make a run this season, they need a healthy Mitch Trubisky
It has been said too many times since the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings and it needs to be put to rest. Too many fans, analysts and media alike are rushing to anoint Chase Daniel as the new starting quarterback, and a savior of the season.
Chase Daniel stepped in for an injured Mitch Trubisky on Sunday. He did not turn the ball over, the Bears won a game led entirely by their defense. This is not to diminish anything Daniel did. However, this is what a backup is asked to do. Step in during a game, do not turn the ball over and do not try to be a hero.
The Bears scored their only touchdown on a drive led by Mitch Trubisky and scored on a drive that featured -3 yards of offense as well. Like any long term backup, Daniel may be able to keep this offense intact just long enough to win another game or two. However, that is thanks to a great defense.
If the Bears want to step up from relying on their defense to having an offense that can compete for a Super Bowl, they need to get Mitch Trubisky healthy and hope that he comes back better than ever. Either way, he gives them a better shot than Chase Daniel.
5. Explosive plays
The biggest draw with Trubisky is the explosive plays. He is athletic, he has a big arm, and Matt Nagy tells him to push the ball down the field. At times, he misses, but he has his fair share of big-time shots down the field.
When Trubisky missed two games last season, the Bears explosive play rate dropped from 16% to 8%. The offense was never hitting at that 16% clip again, even after Trubisky was inserted into the lineup.
However, through three games they had a 6% explosive play rate. This is poor until you realize that Daniel and the Bears offense had two explosive plays on Sunday, which was a 3% rate. Daniel is much more physically limited than Trubisky. Can he protect the football? Yes. However, if the defense does need a big play on offense to change a game, the Bears are going to need Trubisky because Daniel has proven he does not bring that.
4. Rushing issues
With Trubisky in the game, safeties respect the deep ball. Heck, it gives them a shot at an interception. For Daniel, there is much less respect. He does not push the ball down the field and will throw the ball away before pushing his limitations.
This can be good but can have its drawbacks. Teams will stack the box on you. It is no surprise that once again, the Bears rushing success rate dropped in a huge way in the two games Daniel started last season.
Again, no surprise that the same trend carried into the Vikings game. David Montgomery has slowly taken over the workload in Chicago, and Sunday saw a career-high in carries. It also saw a career-low in yards per attempt.
Yes, Kyle Long was out. Yes, the Bears had the lead and were killing the clock. However, the Vikings knew that Daniel could not beat them deep and the crept into the box to make sure that everyone else was in check. Montgomery saw his highest number of 8-man boxes on Sunday. Expect more of this to come if Daniel continues to get more reps with the starters.
3. Running quarterback
We know the biggest thing that has driven the Bears offense with Trubisky at quarterback has been his improvisational skills. Whether he is extending plays to take shots down the field or running for his life, his mobility is a key to what made him a quarterback the Bears were interested in.
Again, before his injury last season he was setting the world on fire on the ground. After his first injury, that rate slowed down. This season, he has hardly taken off.
Still, his rushing ability through three weeks, even when limited showed more than Daniel. Daniel is 33 years and is not very fleet of foot at this point in his career. He managed four attempts but picked up five yards. Trubisky has just five attempts but has 21 yards to show for it.
This is not major but again comes down to schematics. Trubisky can and will throw deep. Trubisky can and will run. With Daniel, you are not worried about these things. Attention is more focused on specific things. All of a sudden the run game is worse with a quarterback who is not an option. Trubisky has not been great, but these dynamics make the offense flow better overall.
2. Sacks
Some fans think Trubisky makes boneheaded decisions that lead to too many sacks. They have not watched Chase Daniel in the preseason. Sure, Daniel plays behind backups in those spots. Still, his NFL success, despite a small sample size shows a player who cannot escape pressure and will take sacks.
Last year Trubisky had a 5.2% sack rate. In two games of Daniel, that number doubled to 10.6%. This season Trubisky had a 7% sack rate. For his career, his sack rate is 6.8%. Daniel was sacked just once on Sunday, which was a 3.5% sack rate. That number helped drop his career total to 8.5%.
Whether you are looking into the 2018 season, the 2019 season, the preseason, or their careers, you are expecting to see more sacks from Daniel than Trubisky. Daniel can get the ball out of his hands at times, and when he has a lead and the defense is pitching a shut out into the fourth quarter, he can win games. However, when pressure comes, we see a backup quarterback.
1. Winning games vs. losing games
This is the most important thing to remember no matter how much time Trubisky misses. The loss will not devastate the team. They have a great defense and a great head coach. They can find ways to win. That is because Chase Daniel will not lose them games.
He will take a sack here and there, but the team will punt and play defense. The run game may struggle, but they will punt and play defense. If Nagy can draw up two plays a game, and they work effectively, they can win some tight games.
However, the Bears will ask Daniel not to lose games. The Bears will need Trubisky to win games. They need physical upside and someone who will push the ball down the field without worrying. They need someone like the last drive of the Eagles.
Trubisky may not be the answer, but his upside sails the chances of the Bears winning a tightly contested game over Daniel. Daniel can keep them in the game, but if one of their other pieces does not hold up, they cannot overcome that. Trubisky has taken his team out of games but has put them right back into games as well.