Who are ten quarterbacks that have profiled closest to Mitch Trubisky through three years?
In a recent post, we broke down the career arch that Mitch Trubisky was on through three years. We found ten players who have had a similar number of starts from their rookie season through year three and have had similar ups and down to Trubisky.
After seeing why Trubisky is so similar to this group, and where he ranks in comparison to them, we are now going to do a head-to-head look and see if Trubisky was in a similar situation, and how these quarterbacks were able to adjust after their first three years.
We are going to look at each quarterback from the first drafted to the most recent, starting with Byron Leftwich.
10. Byron Leftwich
Leftwich is an interesting comparison. Leftwich was a bigger armed quarterback with some movement ability. He got drafted in the top ten from a school that is not known for producing top ten picks at quarterback.
He was drafted to a team with a talented defense and had expectations put on him heading into his second year. After a strong second year, year three saw injuries and question marks that led into a make or break year four.
Here is how Leftwich compares to Trubisky through three years.
At first glance, the two have similar records and are very close in yards per attempt as well as adjusted yards per attempt. Here are their per-game stats.
Trubisky was a more consistent passer, although Leftwich brought some more splash with fewer sacks. Still, Trubisky threw more touchdowns, less picks, and was a much more impactful runner.
The Jags went 5-11 when Leftwich was a rookie and 9-7 the following year. The Jags changed offensive coordinators and went 8-3 through 11 games before Leftwich got hurt. However, that opened the door for David Garrard. Garrard helped them finish 12-4, but Leftwich came back for the playoffs, where the Jags went one and done.
After starting 3-3 in his fourth NFL season, the Jags moved onto Garrard and made the playoffs once again. That signified the end for Leftwich in Jacksonville. Leftwich only started 14 games in five years after his fourth NFL season. He bounced around to three different teams, starting no more than five games in a year.
That is the type of pressure that Trubisky could be under in his fourth NFL a season.
9. Eli Manning
We know how Manning got to New York but was the start to his career all that different than Mitch Trubisky? Manning has two fewer starts, but the two have thrown almost the same number of passes through three years. Here are their comparisons.
Trubisky was more efficient overall. While Manning threw more touchdowns, Trubisky had more yards and plenty less interceptions. Still, Manning took fewer sacks. Here are the per-game stats. The rushing factor is a big difference for Trubisky.
Similar to Trubisky, Manning was on the bench in Week One of his rookie year, but was thrust into the starting lineup early. After a poor rookie year, Manning saw his whole team take a step forward and make the playoffs with an 11-5 record. The following year the team fell back to 8-8. Sound familiar?
This set up for a huge fourth year for Manning. When Manning started the year 0-2, many wondered if he just did not have what his brother did. However, the team got hot and in his fourth NFL season, Manning won his first career Super Bowl. You know the story from there.
Looking at where the two were through three years, it is not crazy to think that a fourth-year like Manning propels him into the player we know now. Of course, fans have to remember that while Manning won two Super Bowls, he had plenty of down performances in that same run. Sometimes you have to take the good with the bad.
8. Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco came into a situation ready for him to win, and he did just that. Flacco played seven playoff games in his first three NFL seasons. Flacco went seven seasons before he saw a losing record. Below, you can see that he was not far and away better than Trubisky, but he came in and thrived more.
12 more touchdowns to just five more interceptions is likely something Bears fans would have taken. Still, on a per-game basis, Flacco was not blowing Trubisky away. A Flacco type career is in his range of outcomes.
We know the outcome for Flacco, it took five years for him to win a Super Bowl and it earned him a big contract. However, after five successful seasons, his team went 43-41 in games he started over the next six seasons. Still, Flacco is the tale of betting on a fifth-year option and getting the ultimate reward. Manning won his first in year four, and Flacco in year five. The next two years will tell us everything for Trubisky.
7. Mark Sanchez
Sanchez and Trubisky will be tied together from Sanchez being a third-string quarterback during Trubisky’s rookie year. Through three years, Sanchez was on a team that had even more immediate success than Trubisky.
However, as you can see, Trubisky was arguably the better quarterback through three years.
Sanchez won more, however, he threw more interceptions and was a bit less mobile. In their per-game metrics, you can see that Trubisky could have a higher ceiling than a Sanchez-like outcome.
Sanchez started 15 games in year four and the Jets went 6-9. Despite that success in the first three years, the Jets moved on. They saw that Sanchez limited their ceiling and took the losing season as a sign for change. Sanchez started eight games for the Eagles in 2014 as a backup and the Eagles went 4-4. He started three games after his fifth year.
Trubisky had similar stats to Leftwich and Sanchez, and both were top ten picks who did not get starter status beyond year five.
6. Josh Freeman
Freeman was a 17th overall pick, so he had a bit less commitment to him. Still, he had a similar three-year run to start his career. In the comparisons below, you can see in their yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, and adjusted net yards per attempt that they are not far apart.
Freeman started a bit more and had more overall attempts. On a per-game basis, Freeman had more interceptions, but Trubisky took more sacks. The rest is not far off.
Freeman had the same head coach and offensive coordinator for three years. The Bucs went 3-6 with Freeman as a rookie. Trubisky was 4-8 as a rookie. In year two the Bucs shot up to 10-6, however they did not make the playoffs. Year three went off the rails worse than year three for Trubisky, though. The Bucs went 4-11 and head coach Raheem Morris was fired. With Greg Schiano, the Bucs went 7-9 with Freeman in that crucial fourth NFL season.
Freeman started three games for the Bucs in his fifth year, but after going 0-3, Schiano turned to none other than Mike Glennon. Freeman was traded to Minnesota but started two games in the NFL after year five.
A lesson we are learning so far is that year four is a make or break for if Trubisky will be a starter at all.
5. Sam Bradford
The number one pick Sam Bradford is known for injuries, but through three years, he had the same number of starts as the number two overall pick Trubisky. Bradford had more yards, but he was one of the few quarterbacks who took more sacks than Trubisky.
Below you can see their per-game stats. Trubisky edges him in rushing stats, the rest can be comparable, with Trubisky getting a slight nod.
Bradford had his make or break fourth-year, but got hurt. His fifth-year ended in the preseason, which is when the serious injuries started.
This also ended his stint with the Rams, showing once again how important that fourth and fifth year are.
Bradford was an NFL starter in years six and seven, and his teams went 15-16 with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. However, as years four and five previewed, the rest of his career was doomed by injury. Still, unlike Freeman, Leftwich, and Sanchez, Bradford had a second act.
4. Andy Dalton
Dalton is one of recent comparable quarterbacks who was not a first-round pick. Not many teams ride with a quarterback that early and trust them beyond two years without notable success. Still, looking at Dalton compared to Trubisky you can see why the two are compared to each other at this stage.
Dalton started seven more games and is slightly more efficient, but on a per-game basis, you can see that they are comparable. Trubisky helps with his rushing.
Like Flacco, Dalton hit the ground running and did not see a losing season until 2017, his sixth NFL season. However, you know the story and that is 0-4 in his first four chances. He missed his fifth chance in the playoffs with a thumb injury.
Still, the Bengals stuck with Dalton for years six through eight. Over that span, the Bengals went 20-35-1. That is enhanced by an awful 2019, but he was 18-24-1 taking out the Zac Taylor era.
The realization is that he was fine for five years on a cheap deal, but like most of these players was not worth his value after five years. Even Flacco won a Super Bowl in year five then never got back to that status. Would the Bengals have been better off cutting their losses after year five, knowing what they had in Dalton, and knowing that he did not hit the mark that Flacco and Manning did? If Trubisky makes the playoffs in years four and five, but struggles along the way, should the Bears keep betting on him? Could they be stuck in a Dalton-like situation for years six through eight?
3. Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill is a very interesting thought. He and Trubisky are both athletic and both had limited college experience. Still, both went in the first round. Both got on the field early too. Tannehill even started seven more games over three years.
Still, the two were very close in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt and adjusted net yards per attempt.
On a per-game basis, you can see just how close they were statistically. The rushing value of Trubisky shows again, and Tannehill took more sacks as well.
As shown, Tannehill started seven more games in three years and lost seven more games. Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman led the Dolphins through two years, but the Dolphins went 7-9 when Tannehill was a rookie and 8-8 in year two. In year three, Bill Lazor was hired as the offensive coordinator. However, they went 8-8 once again.
In year four of Tannehill, the Dolphins decided that it was not Tannehill, it was the coaches. Zac Taylor and Lazor took over the offense, but the Dolphins went 6-10. In year five, Adam Gase took over and Tannehill was 8-5 as a starter. Maybe waiting for year five was worth it.
The issue is that Tannehill tore his ACL and left the Dolphins with Matt Moore in the playoffs. In year six, Tannehill tore his ACL in the preseason.
Tannehill came back in year seven and played for Gase, but went 5-6 as a starter and dealt with injuries. The Dolphins moved on from Gase and Tannehill after they went 13-11 together.
Of course, we know how Tannehill worked out in year eight at his new stop. Does the story of Tannehill say to give Trubisky patience?
2. Derek Carr
Derek Carr was a second-round pick, but if Chicago Bears want to see a true bust in the top two, they should look to his brother, David. David makes Trubisky look like a hit of a pick. Derek is a more fair comparison, look at their yards per attempt, and adjusted net yards per attempt.
Carr started seven more games, mostly as a rookie, but on a per-game basis threw more passes as well. Carr had more touchdowns and fewer sacks. Again, Trubisky had more rushing yards. Still, overall, they are pretty comparable.
Carr has been with the Raiders for six years. The Raiders have had one winning season. They are undecided as to what they will do with Carr this offseason.
Granted, the Raiders are a bit more fragile of a franchise. Still, Carr has similar numbers. The Raiders are 17-30 after year three with Carr. If the Bears go down a similar path, they need to cut ties earlier than year six. Year four and five should have been red flags that the Raiders were not going in the right direction with Carr, and they should be just as telling with Trubisky.
1. Blake Bortles
Bortles seems to be the most common name thrown out when talking about Mitch Trubisky. However, this exercise has shown that Ryan Tannehill is as close to Trubisky as Bortles.
Still, they have similar yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt ratings. We also finally found a better runner than Trubisky.
Bortles threw the ball a lot more through three seasons That is mainly because of all of the sacks and interceptions. If you are frustrated with Trubisky, you have to admit that he is not quite as rough as Bortles at this point in their careers.
We know the story of Bortles. Through three years the Jags won 11 games as Bortles took sacks, threw picks and competed in garbage time. In year four, the Jags made the AFC Championship.
The Jags gave Bortles an extension, but after going 3-9 in his fifth season, the Jags worked to get out of his deal.
He spent year six as a backup for the Rams. It is unlikely he will be a starter in the NFL moving forward, meaning he is another quarterback from this list to be done after five years.
Recap
In the case of Leftwich, Sanchez, and Freeman, year four exposed them and they never saw another real chance. Bradford and Tannehill saw injuries derail their careers, but both saw starting opportunities again.
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Bortles had his most success in year four, but fell apart in year five and is unlikely to be a starter again.
Eli Manning won a Super Bowl in year four and Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl in year five.
Lastly is Andy Dalton and Derek Carr. It is tough to say their impact as Dalton won a lot, but years six through eight were not worth it. Carr has one winning season through six years. It is fair to argue these two could have been as close to Leftwich, Sanchez, and Freeman as Flacco and Manning.
So, with a small sample size to help we can summarize in 40% of cases we found out in year four or five that the quarterback does not have it. 20% saw injuries ruin their chances with their original team, although they found a second chance, and 20% stayed with their original team for arguably too long. Of course, 20% also won the Super Bowl after a make or break fourth year.
Overall, the biggest takeaway here is there are so many ways his outcome could go still. However, it is clear that we will see all we need to see over the next two years.