The Chicago Bears are likely going to move on from Taylor Gabriel
The hard thing about declining from 2018 to 2019 is knowing that the team is not going to be the same again. Changes were made to the coaching staff, and the roster will begin to reform as well.
One move that the team is going to have to consider is Taylor Gabriel. Gabriel missed seven games in 2019, one of the reasons for the teams overall regression.
Should the Chicago Bears? What are the benefits? Here are five reasons why the Bears need to move on from Taylor Gabriel
5. Salary Cap Space
As the Chicago Bears currently stand today, they have $5 million in cap space. Fans want to add players, but the fact of the matter is that they are barely going to afford to sign their draft picks with the money that they currently have saved.
Of course, the team is going to restructure deals, and extensions can help lower the cap as well. On top of that, players will get cut.
The players that are looked at as cut candidates are the ones who do not have high guaranteed money totals. After paying Gabriel for two seasons, the majority of his guaranteed money has been earned.
While Gabriel has two years on his contract, $3 million is guaranteed. The Bears will have to pay Gabriel that no matter what, but they can get out of cap hits of $6.5 and $7.5 million in 2020 and 2021.
In 2020, they can save $4.5 million against the cap by letting Gabriel go. In 2021, they save $6.5 million. The Bears do not have the cap space. The price they have to pay is moving on from a known quantity in Taylor Gabriel.
4. Value
When looking at his salary cap hit, the question becomes, is he worth $6.5 million. According to OverTheCap.com, he is not even worth the dead cap that the Bears will have to pay to release him.
They valued his 2019 season at $1.86 million. He has a $2 million dead cap hit if he is let go. That cap hit may sting, but paying a $6.5 million player, $1.86 million is a bigger loss. Especially with the other needs on the roster.
Gabriel missed time, and if he played a full season he may have increased his overall value. Still, he played over half of a season, so even doubling that value would be under $4 million.
When looking at the current free-agent market, PFF has Breshad Perriman and Nelson Agholor fifth and sixth as their free-agent wide receivers. OTC valued Perriman at $5 million in 2019 and Agholor at $2.8 million.
Below is a look at how the two compared to Gabriel, not only through 2019 but 2018 as well. They all played in a similar number of games and saw similar production over the past two years.
Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rk Player From To AV G Rec Yds TD Y/R Lng 1 Nelson Agholor 2018 2019 9 27 103 1099 7 10.7 83 2 Taylor Gabriel 2018 2019 10 25 96 1041 6 10.8 54 3 Breshad Perriman 2018 2019 7 24 52 985 8 18.9 66
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/12/2020.
Perriman may see a value similar to what Gabriel is getting, but Agholor is not going to make anywhere near $6.5 million per year in average salary. These are players who have put up similar numbers over the past two years and will not be making as much.
Gabriel did not match his value last season, and on an open market may not get a deal that he is currently on. That is when you know a player is going to have to take a pay cut. If Gabriel does want to take a pay cut, it is one thing. If not, it is time to move on.
3. Stats decline
Gabriel was not just injured in 2019, he was less efficient across the board. This is not just because of quarterback play, either.
His drop rate shot up from 2.9% to 9%. His yards after the catch per reception dropped from 3.3 to 2.8. His yards per route run, missed tackles forced, and contested catch rate all dropped.
Beyond that, Gabriel is not quite the player that some see him as. While he is looked at as the deep threat of the passing offense, he was the least efficient receiver on passes that traveled 20 yards down the field or more.
This expands over a two-year sample as well. Trubisky was 9-27 targeting Gabriel deep. In comparison, Allen Robinson was 23-49 targeted deep. Even Anthony Miller has been more efficient in the deep passing game, at 11-26 when targeted.
Tarik Cohen is 5-12 when targeted deep. Even that has been more efficient than Gabriel. Gabriel is targeted deep on 16.7% of his targets. This is lower than Miller at 17% and Robinson at 19%. This is not an injury or volume issue. This is Gabriel not getting open deep enough, and not converting deep targets enough.
2. Age
The NFL is a young man’s game. Wide receiver, more than most is a position for speed, quickness, and athleticism. There are always exceptions and the true pros of the game who extend their careers. However, most players max out their NFL career before age 30.
When looking at wide receivers specifically, most peak at age 30. This has been historically true, but can be looked at this year as well. Mohammed Sanu, A.J. Green, and T.Y. Hilton all turned 30 this year, and all three had low points of their careers. Sanu got traded and struggled with Tom Brady while Green did not play a snap. Antonio Brown turned 30 as well, but it is tough to say age got to him. Travis Benjamin turned 30 this year as well and missed 11 games, although Julio Jones beat the curse of 30 this year, being the one 2019 exception.
Gabriel will be 29, but that is right on the edge. Looking at 29-year-olds this year, Alshon Jeffrey, Marvin Jones, Adam Thielen, and Marquise Goodwin all missed significant time with injuries.
Gabriel will be entering his age 29 season coming off of an injury. He is a player who bases his whole game off of his speed. He is entering a stage where losing a step is very possibly on the table. It is better to be out early than out late in this situation.
1. Replacement options
Of course, it is one thing to say that Gabriel is overpaid and may be on the decline. The Bears still need a starting wide receiver. Who is going to replace him?
To start, the team has Javon Wims and Riley Ridley on the roster. Wims is entering year three and Ridley year two. Wims started to get his feet wet in year two, and the hope is Ridley takes a step in a similar fashion. Neither has proven they can step in yet, but neither has had a big enough role in the offense. If the team has trust in them, they do not need much in terms of a replacement.
As mentioned, Perriman and Agholor are players with similar production who could make similar if not less pay. Both are younger than Gabriel as well.
Other names such as Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore, Keelan Cole, Robert Foster, Demarcus Robinson, and David Moore are all expected to make less than what Gabriel is currently making. The team could release Gabriel, and sign one of these names, and still save a couple of million dollars.
Lastly, the draft. This draft is supposed to be as deep as ever for a wide receiver.
if the Bears need speed, Devin Duvernay, Lynn Bowden, John Hightower, and Marquez Callaway are just a few names expected to go in the middle rounds with serious speed.
The Bears can find a cheaper replacement, and with displacement costs save money.