The Chicago Bears drafted Cole Kmet. What are the most important stats to know about him adjusting to the NFL.?
With the 43rd overall pick, the Chicago Bears drafted Cole Kmet from Notre Dame. We have known about Matt Nagy and how he loves to use tight ends for a long time, and he thinks that he found a “Y” tight end in Kmet.
Now that Kmet is in the NFL, the question is, what can he bring to the Chicago Bears. Here are the essentials that you need to know about Kmet and his transition to the NFL.
3. Cole Kmet lined up in-line 59%
Cole Kmet has played 1,128 total snaps in his college career, a little over half of what Jaylon Johnson has played. Kmet is less experienced, but they added him because he is the fit for their offense that Matt Nagy has been looking for.
During his Notre Dame career, he spent 59% of those snaps lined up in-line attached to the line of scrimmage, according to PFF. 23% of his snaps were in the slot, and 18% of his snaps he aligned on the outside.
It is likely more coincidence than anything, but looking at the past three seasons for Jimmy Graham, he spent 41% of his snaps in-line, which means 59% of his snaps were elsewhere. He lined up in the slot 42% of the time and 17% out wide.
If Kmet spent 59% of his snaps in-line next year, and Graham spent 41% in-line, they would have at least one tight end attached to the line of scrimmage every snap, and it also would be a similar rate to what they have been seeing. This shows how they are matched together and will complement each other more than push each other out. Matt Nagy views them as two different positions.
2. Cole Kmet is 6’6″,262 pounds
That is taller and thicker than your average tight end. Beyond that, he posted a 4.7 40-yard dash time. That does not impress many, but it is in the 73rd percentile amongst tight ends, and his weight-adjusted speed is in the 83rd percentile. He is creating momentum with his movements like only the top NFL athletes.
He posted a 37″ vertical, which is in the 90th percentile amongst tight ends, and a 10’3″ broad, which is in the 92nd percentile. This is an upper-level athlete. His burst score, which combines the two and adjusts for weight, is in the same tier.
Combining his height, arm length, and burst also puts his catch radius score in the 66th percentile. His biggest issue athletically is his change of direction and agility. His straight-line speed and burst are elite for NFL players, but his 20-yard shuttle was in the 51st percentile, and his 3-cone was in the 22nd. When adjusting his agility score, he ranks in the 21st percentile amongst tight ends.
We did a pre-draft write up on Kmet that looked into how his combine scores translated to the NFL. There are only so many people to have his size, speed, burst, and questionable agility; how have they fared?
Here is the list of the 27 players to have a similar combine over the past 20 years. When you add in that he was a second-round pick, showing that the NFL knew there was a talent to invest in, the list goes down a bit further. Here are the 15 top 100 picks from that list.
Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Marcedes Lewis, Jermaine Gresham, Jerramy Stevens, Mark Andrews, Vance McDonald, Clark Harris, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Ben Troupe, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ian Thomas, Jace Amaro, Mike Seidman
Of those 15, there are a couple of busts, but the hit rate of a big, explosive, tight end drafted high in the NFL draft is pretty good. If you are looking for a style of player comparison, those are the names to look into. The Martellus Bennett comparison may be the best to Cole Kmet from an on the field perspective.
1. Cole Kmet Career stat line: 62 catches on 80 targets, 691 yards, six touchdowns
Last season was the breakout year for Kmet, where he had 43 receptions for 515 yards and all six of his touchdowns. According to Rotoworld, his production score was in the 66th percentile at the tight end position.
Bears fans do not need to hear it again, but their collection of tight ends summed up to 46 receptions for 416 yards. The Bears’ entire tight end room had three more catches for 99 fewer yards than Cole Kmet in 2019. Say what you want about Mitch Trubisky, he is better than the current Notre Dame quarterback. Say what you want about the level of competition, but it does feel like Kmet could have been a contributor to the Bears last season.
It does not mean much, but it is fun to look at because of the similar targets. Trey Burton had 54 receptions on 76 targets, for 569 yards and six touchdowns in 2018.
Two of the 18 incompletions to Kmet were the result of a drop, according to PFF. He averaged 5 yards after the catch per reception. Graham averaged 4.9 yards after the catch over his past three years in the NFL.
His average depth of target was also 9.3. It is worth noting that Graham has not an average depth of target below 10 in his career. This can show once again how they may contrast.
Cole Kmet caught 23 of his 28 targets that were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and turned that into three touchdowns. He is a safety blanket. He has the size to box out and catch passes, but the speed that he has to be respected over the middle. Lastly, he brings value as a blocker. Graham is the more vertical player who will serve as an extra slot option.