Chicago Bears are not happy with Matt Nagy but he is not going anywhere yet
After a disappointing loss that extended a losing streak, it is easy to understand why fans of the Chicago Bears have lost faith in Matt Nagy. He was hired to fix the offense, and the issue has not been fixed halfway through his third NFL season. However, while fans are disappointed, they have to realize that they are overly emotional right now.
Matt Nagy has a lot to learn, grow on, and improve as an NFL head coach. However, whether you like it or not, he is going to get the time to do that in Chicago. Matt Nagy is not on the hot seat, and almost nothing that happens this season is going to put him on the hot seat. Here is why.
3. Winning Record
Matt Nagy is currently 25-16 as an NFL head coach. That is not elite by any means. However, nine games above .500 in the NFL with three years of coaching is still pretty good. Yes, it is bumped up by his 12-4 campaign. Still, while things fluttered last season, he kept the ship afloat and guided them to 8-8.
Even this season, the expectations were low. However, while the three-game losing streak hurts, 5-4 is about where many expected Chicago at this point, if not above where they expected him.
In his first year he exceeded expectations, in his second he did not. Now, in year three, he is about where we think he is. This is not just the media perception. According to betting odds the Chicago Bears went over their win total in 2018 by 6 games, they went under their win total by one game last year, and this year they sat at 8.5. He has outpaced the betting odds of the sharpest minds in the world to date.
Call me crazy, but a coach needs to consistently fail to meet expectations before the seat gets hot. Maybe Bears fans thought of their team higher, but Nagy has won more games than oddsmakers have expected to date.
Beyond that, take a look at the records of coaches who were hired the same year as Matt Nagy
Matt Nagy – 25-16
Mike Vrabel – 24-16
Frank Reich – 23-17
Jon Gruden – 16-25
Matt Patricia – 12-27-1
He has been the winningest coach hired that year and Bears fans want to fire him. Vrabel needed a win over Nagy to get closer to him.
Fans will cry that the defense wins him all of his games. The fact of the matter is that the head coach controls the team, and the wins and losses fall on them. The Titans offense has excelled but defensive head coach Mike Vrabel has not taken heat for a below-average defense.
Beyond that, remember times before Matt Nagy? The Chicago Bears went 27-53 in the two coaching stints before he came in here. Maybe 25-16 is not what you want, but he would have to go 2-37 to repeat 2013-2017. If you lived through 2013-2017 you have the patience to let Matt Nagy figure this out.
2. Age and experience
The last sentence of the last slide says it all. Matt Nagy needs time to figure it out. He is 42 years old. Only eight NFL coaches are younger. The Bears hired him knowing full and well that this was his first time as an NFL head coach. There was even discussion that he was still new to play calling as well.
We once again go back into expectations. The Bears set high expectations by going 12-4. However, that is in part due to the change that Nagy started to bring to the franchise. Yes, things were rocky on offense from the start, and the group has been up and down since with glimmers of hopes and dark paths of despair.
Still, again, he is young, and this is his first time experiencing everything. It was his first time experiencing the ups, and first time dealing through the downs. Again, the downs are so far that they still are above .500, but that is not here or there. It is true the offensive struggles are on Nagy.
He needs to get better, and fast. Still, he has afforded himself the time to grow in Chicago. The Bears should be patient and let him continue to learn on the job. They hired him for the long haul and knew that he was inexperienced when they made the call. Learning on the job is the only way to get better. Fans are going to be impatient, but that is why they are fans. In the meantime, until the wheels fall off, and Nagy is well below .500, the Bears are going to take 25-16, over 27-53 which may come from moving on to a worse head coach.
1. Working with what he has
The more apt argument for Chicago Bears fans is that Ryan Pace may be on a hot seat. With that, does ownership tell their new GM that they have to keep Nagy, or is that on the new GM to decide? In that case, you could argue Nagy is in trouble. That is not really on Nagy, though.
Nagy did not draft Mitch Trubisky. Yes, Nagy had a huge hand in bringing in Nick Foles, and that is going to be a ding on Nagy if things do not turn around. Still, as we have watched Andy Dalton and Cam Newton play out as well, it was starting to look like a pick your poison scenario.
Beyond that, Nagy is not the one who signed Robert Quinn and traded equity for Foles as an all-in type of offseason. The reason those moves were made was to fix poor drafts of years past. Nagy did not mishandle the offensive line year in and year out. Nagy did not trade pick after pick until the Bears had no depth.
The Bears are in this spot because of a consistent nature to double down by Ryan Pace. At times the aggressiveness works. However, when Alex Bars make his first career start at center and the offensive line falls apart you can only blame Nagy for so much.
Again, Nagy absolutely deserves blame. Pressure needs to be on Nagy, and it is likely coming from Ryan Pace who feels it himself. However, firing Matt Nagy accomplishes nothing. It opens the door to be the frantic franchise who falls back into the cellar for years. Patience wins in the NFL time and time again. Look at the Pittsburgh Steelers. They never panic, they trust their process, and they do not make brash emotional moves.
If the Bears lose out, Nagy will still be above .500 as a coach. That would put 2021 as a make or break year, though. Still, the Bears will not lose out, as bad as things seem. Matt Nagy has done enough in Chicago to earn the time to iron out his issues.