Matt Nagy has deployed two completely different schemes for the Chicago Bears
The 2019 season was a disaster for the Chicago Bears. The playoff hopefuls finished 8-8 in large part due to their horrendous offense. Head coach Matt Nagy addressed this issue by firing most of his staff and replacing them with veterans who knew the game like Bill Lazor and Juan Castillo. He aimed to establish the run and work the pass off of the run.
To start 2020, it seemed Nagy had done that and the offense was rolling. With Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, they were 2-0 heading into their game in Atlanta. They ran for 149 yards and 135 yards in the first two games of the season and put up 27 points on the Lions. They only put up 17 points on the New York Giants, but a lot of dropped passes hindered their scoreline.
After Trubisky got pulled in the game against the Falcons, so did this hybrid scheme with it. Nick Foles came in and finished the game with this scheme. He led the Chicago Bears to a major comeback and a win. But after that game, a lot changed in their scheme.
After that game, the rushing totals dropped. Their total offense dropped. Fans and analysts alike could see the difference in the Chicago Bears’ offense and they did not look the same from a schematic standpoint. So, what changed? On top of that, why did it change? I will be using Sharp Football Analytics to answer these questions comparing them.
The Hybrid Scheme was very different
Compared to the 2019 offense and the offense after the first few weeks, the scheme of these two offenses was night and day. The 2019 offense in Chicago lined up under center the sixth-least in the NFL on 24% of their snaps. The first three weeks of 2020, they were almost the opposite as they were seventh-highest in the NFL in under center rates with 47% of their snaps coming from under center.
Why is this a big change? Well, with the Bears under center the team was able to highlight Trubisky’s ability better. They were able to establish the run with heavy tight end sets and run play action off of it. Because of this, their rushing efficiency was much higher as well. They had a 43.9% success rate in 2019 compared to 52.6% in their hybrid scheme.
The personnel groupings changed as well as the Bears have always been a heavy 11 personnel team, but with this new scheme, the tight end sets increased greatly. The Chicago Bears ran multiple tight ends on 39% of their snaps in this scheme compared to 13.7% in 2019. Multiple tight ends was an integral part to this offense attacking the seams and using them as solid blockers.
Comparing the face stats of 2019 to 2020, the Bears only rushed for over 130 yards four times in 2019 compared to the Bears running for over 130 yards in all three of their first three games of 2020. This means the Bears finally established the run as Matt Nagy had planned unless…
Matt Nagy reverted back to his 2019 offense
Now that Foles was in, Nagy was finally able to trash the offense that was actually working and go back to his inefficient, high-passing volume offense that made people want to pull their hairs out and scream at their T.V.s. That sounds like a good idea, right?
Now let’s compare the beginning of the season to Week 4 and on shall we? Well for starters, the Bears lined up under center back to the exact same rate as they did in 2019 at 24% from Week 4 and on. Their rush success rate dropped from 52.6% in the first three weeks to 33.7% in the remaining weeks.
In Nagy’s defense, injuries to their offensive line have lowered the rate, but they should not have lowered it by almost 20%.
Finally, the personnel groupings. The Chicago Bears have lowered their heavy tight end sets — more protection for Foles and more blockers on run plays — from 39% to 27.8%. Now, why would we want to have more help on the run or protect our quarterback?
What is the result of this? Well, as the Bears ran for over 130 yards in each of the first three games, they now have never run for over 100 yards in a game since. Even against the porous Carolina Panthers (63 yards) and the weak Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans (41 and 56 respectively), the Bears couldn’t muster over 65 yards of rushing.
So what does this mean? This means Nagy is not truly looking at the analytics, and these are just the basic ones. He truly would rather die running his system than stay alive running what works and it’s worse than unfortunate to see that. On top of that, it is just selfish.
If the Bears want to even have a chance at the playoffs, the Bears need to revert back to this. They need Trubisky back in at quarterback running the heavy under-center offense that the Bears succeeded in running. Will it happen? Likely no. But we can dream, can’t we?