Of all of the positions the Chicago Bears drafted on Saturday, the most surprising would be running back Khalil Herbert. The team has David Montgomery and signed Damien Williams, so when you add in Tarik Cohen it will be tough for Herbert to break through.
However, there has to be something that the team likes about Herbert as he was their second of five picks. With that in mind, what does Khalil Herbert bring to the table?
5. Khalil Herbert has return game value
The biggest way for Herbert to carve out a role on the Chicago Bears would be in the return game. The Bears lost Cordarelle Patterson which leaves very big shoes to fill, without a good option left on the roster.
It is not a ton, but Khalil Herbert has experience in this area. He is a transfer from Kansas and did not return kicks, but when he transferred to Virginia Tech he became a return man. This year he was able to return 16 times for 430 yards. He did not house one, but he found a way to carve out about 27 yards per return.
That would be good enough in most cases if it were to transfer to the NFL. We will find out how he fits, but the first place to look is in the return game.
4. Yards after contact, Elusiveness, and big plays
Khalil Herbert is known as a home run hitter. He averaged over seven yards per carry last season for the Hokies. You cannot pull that off without big plays.
That is shown by his big-play rate. According to PFF, he hit 19 rushes that went for 15 yards or more. That ranked sixth in the country last season amongst running backs.
What is most impressive about this is that it is not like he is just running through wide lanes. He ranks 8th in yards after contact with 782 last season. That is 66% of his production coming after contact, and about 5 yards per carry just when you factor in when it comes after contact.
Lastly is his elusive rating, which comes in at 126. It helps to get yards after contact, but he does help himself with great moves to avoid contact. To put that into perspective, when David Montgomery came out, he has a 127.8 elusive rating. That is excellent. This is a player who can create for himself.
3. Athleticism
Khalil Herbert is built like a running back. He is short and he is thick. You can see below exactly what I am talking about. For a back, he may not be too heavy, but he carries more weight than height.
The rest of his metrics are interesting. You can see that he very clearly has built up speed. His 10-yard is not great, but his 20-yard gets better and his 40-yard time is great for his size. It shows in his broad and vertical that it may take a second or two to get him going as well.
His 3-cone is good, but his short shuttle is not, which is surprising as they are typically correlated.
Still, overall, when you look at his athletic measurements and find NFL comparables, a decent list comes up.
Comparisons that we see include Devonta Freeman, Clyde Edwards-Hellaire, Darrell Henderson, and Anthony McFarland. This should give a decent idea of what type of athlete the Bears are dealing with.
2. Predictive Metrics
Player Profiler has found some of the more predictive metrics for running back. It is not an end-all-be-all, but when you rank high in these ratings, you have a great shot.
Speed score looks at adjusted 40 yard dash time for weight, which came in at the 56th percentile. His burst score, which combines broad and vertical was in the 25th percentile.
Khalil Herbert has an 11.24 agility score, which ranked in the 67th percentile. Altogether he has a 112.9 SPARQ score, which is 57th percentile. As an athlete, he checks most boxes for productive RBs.
On the field, he hits in most areas as well. His 7.6 yards per carry is in the 96th percentile of all running backs to play college football. Not bad. He also had a 25.3% dominator rating which is the percent of offense you are responsible for. In that area, he rated 52nd percentile. His only issue comes with his target share, which is 5.5% of all passes coming his way. That is just 29th percentile.
He is not agile and does not catch passes, but Herbert checks every other metric for PP.
1. Khalil Herbert thrives at zone blocking scheme
Matt Nagy has typically been a zone-blocking offensive mind, so it does not surprise that Khalil Herbert is best suited to play in a zone-blocking scheme. According to PFF, he had 125 zone runs to just 33 in gap. Beyond that, he posted a 92 zone-blocking grade, and a 72 gap grade.
When you combine everything we know about Herbert, this makes sense. Herbert has built up speed, but when he gets going he tough to bring down and he can make you miss with sharp cuts as well.
In a gap system, he is expected to burst downhill and pick up quick yards. However, in a zone scheme, he can assess where to hit his hole, and take his time to build up speed behind the line. From there, he is comfortable in reading the zone and hitting the correct hole.
Matt Nagy has started to be more versatile in his run game, but expect Herbert to be a zone running back for the Chicago Bears.