As I start writing this, the head coaching candidate list remains at nine. The team has interviewed only one head coach at this point and that was former Super Bowl champion, Doug Pederson. Three general manager candidates have been interviewed as well. The process is going to take a little bit of time, but not too long. When Ryan Pace was hired in 2015, it took the team 10 days to decide on Ryan Pace. It took another eight days for the Bears to then hire John Fox as head coach.
If we assume that the timeline will be somewhat similar, then we can expect the decision on a new general manager to be made towards the end of next week, while the new head coach should be decided on by the end of the month.
The Chicago Bears need to hire the “right” coach this time
When I look at a head coaching candidate, there are a few key traits that I need to see. First, the candidate should have a proven track record. Second, the candidate needs to have a certain amount or type of experience. This is one reason why I’d be hesitant to hire Kellen Moore. That said, if his interview went well enough, he might be able to convince me. Although, it doesn’t matter since Moore hasn’t been requested for an interview by the Bears.
Wins and losses aren’t the be-all-end-all, but context needs to be considered as well when we look at the candidates. For example, if a coach takes over a team that is in shambles and that team finishes with say only three wins in the first season, the team then builds that up to six wins the next and finally a winning season in the third season, then we can’t just look at his overall record. See what I mean?
While interviewing these candidates, George McCaskey, Bill Polian, and whoever the new general manager is, will need to determine what the head coach plans to do with the offense and Justin Fields. This is extremely important. Also during these interviews, it will be key to determine certain attributes such as leadership qualities and the ability to articulate with football intelligence. Vetting them through others (former players and assistant coaches) is important too.
While going through the current list of candidates, this is the reverse order of how I want them to be hired by the Chicago Bears.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Leslie Frazier, DC – Buffalo Bills
I recently wrote about the coaches the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be wasting their time on. Leslie Frazier is one of those guys on that list. Within my rankings, I created tiers. Frazier was in the bottom tier — all by himself.
Frazier struggled as the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. Is it possible he’s learned from that experience? There are plenty of examples of retread head coaches doing better the next time around. I just don’t believe that Frazier is going to be that guy.
The Vikings’ offense was never successful while he was captaining the ship, but to make things worse, the defense never performed too well either. The best season he saw was in 2012 when his defense ranked 16th in yards and 14th in points allowed. When we look at defensive DVOA that year, the team was 14th. In 2011, the team finished 23rd in defensive DVOA and in 2013 it finished 24th. Not good when the coach is defensive-minded.
Frazier just can’t cut it as a head coach and should stick to being a defensive coordinator.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Todd Bowles, DC – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Bowles is in a similar boat as Leslie Frazier. He has head coaching experience, but it was not a good outcome. Both Frazier and Bowles struggled at the quarterback position, which as we know can make or break a team, however, this is my biggest problem with coaches from the defensive side of the ball. Unless they are lucky enough to land a good offensive coordinator, then it is more likely than not the team is going to struggle.
As I pointed out in my previous article about coaches who the Bears shouldn’t waste their time on, 10 of the 14 teams in the playoffs all have an offensive-minded coach. Even looking at the teams that got close like the Chargers, Saints and Colts — all have coaches with an offensive background. I am a firm believer of head coaches needing to be more of a CEO type, but there needs to be an overall offensive philosophy. This is where the disconnect comes in with a guy like Todd Bowles.
We will see a coach like Bowles bring in an offensive coordinator (see the Lovie Smith era) and if that OC is not up to snuff, then he will be gone within a year or two. Then Bowles will see another two years with another offensive coordinator as the cycle repeats and Justin Fields’ career looks to be wasted. These are not the situations I want to see the Chicago Bears in right now.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Dan Quinn, DC – Dallas Cowboys
In the same tier as Todd Bowles is Dan Quinn. The only reason Quinn saw a slightly higher grade in my rankings is that Quinn has had proven success as a head coach — Bowles hasn’t. The thing is, these guys are essentially cut from the same cloth. As you go through my rankings, you will quickly see a pattern. The pattern is that the defensive-minded coaches are all at the bottom. Am I wrong for doing this? History and the current makeup of the NFL would suggest no.
A bit part of the reason why Dan Quinn saw success as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons is that he had Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator for the first two years. The team went 8-8 in the first year under Quinn and Shanahan. The offense was seventh in yards, but couldn’t score. They finished 21st in points.
That changed in 2016 when they went to the Super Bowl and lost to the Patriots in the infamous 28-3 collapse. Despite the loss in the big game, the Falcons ranked second in yards and first in points that year. Matt Ryan had one of the best seasons of his career. Shanahan was hired in 2017 as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and then Steve Sarkisian took over as offensive coordinator in Atlanta.
The team finished with 10 wins that first year but the offense dropped to eighth in yards and 15th in points. In 2018 the team was sixth and 10th. Sarkisian was fired at the end of the 2018 season and replaced by Dirk Koetter. Under Koetter, the Falcons finished fifth and 13th in 2019. Quinn was fired after five games in 2020 when the team started the year 0-5. The offense finished that year ranked 18th in yards and 16th in points. Do you see what I don’t want for the Chicago Bears?
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Matt Eberflus, DC – Indianapolis Colts
When it comes to defensive-minded head coaches, we know what to expect with Leslie Frazier, Todd Bowles and Dan Quinn. We don’t know what to expect if Matt Eberflus were to take over as a head coach. That unknown intrigues me a little. The problem is, even pairing him with the right offensive coordinator might only work for the first year or two. Then, that coordinator will leave for a head coaching gig as Kyle Shanahan did while with Atlanta. Then what is going to happen here?
Eberflus has helped work wonders in Indianapolis. One thing I always point to when we look at Leslie Frazier (and the same happened with Dan Quinn), is that the defensive side of the ball was not good enough while they were head coaches. Imagine a defensive Matt Nagy. While head coaching, those two struggled to see their defenses in the top 15. Many times they were ranked in the 20s. Will the same happen with Matt Eberflus?
Another reason that Eberflus is higher up in my rankings is that I would only assume he is hired because Ed Dodds is hired as the next general manager. Dodds is easily my top choice as the next Bears general manager. I have him and Omar Khan in their own tiers but more on them in a different article. The Colts defense has been ranked in the top 10 in defensive DVOA the last two years and was 11th in 2018. Only in 2019 did the team struggle in this area but had a few key injuries along the way. Their starting QB situation was shaky at best too.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Brian Flores, Former Miami HC
When the Miami Dolphins first fired Brian Flores at the end of the season, I was on record stating that I thought he’d make a great coach and one I’d consider interviewing for the Bears vacancy. He seemed to be a coach who could get the most out of his players. He was a no-nonsense coach who would never allow a losing team to celebrate a win as Matt Nagy did with Club Dub after the 2018 season. Club Dub is fine when the team is winning, but not constantly losing.
The idea that Ed Dodds hates complacency and it seems Brian Flores is the same way made me think that although there isn’t a direct connection, the idea of Dodds and Flores together would be pretty amazing. It would be a tandem like we haven’t seen here in Chicago in quite some time. The problem is, I then learned more about the ins and outs of the Dolphins staff over the last three years.
In his first season, the Dolphins won five games while trying to “tank for Tua.” This had more to do with Flores in my opinion than anything. That was a team filled with mostly second-string players, yet they flushed out five wins anyway. The Dolphins were still able to land Tua Tagolailoa, but it’s on record that Brian Flores wanted Justin Herbert instead. There was a disconnect here between Flores and Dolphins GM Chris Grier. I’ll give Flores the credit for wanting the better QB.
That said, Chad O’Shea was the OC of the Dolphins that first year, but things didn’t stick. Flores handled the 2019 quarterback situation in a strange way — bouncing back and forth between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa. This is not a great strategy and is similar to what we saw here in Chicago this year. Chan Gailey was the OC that season, but he too didn’t cut it. This year, the team used two offensive coordinators in a failed plan. George Godsey and Eric Studesville ran the offense and the team struggled offensively again. Not good.
When it comes to being a head coach, you don’t need to be the X’s and O’s guy. You need to be able to run a staff and put your coaches, assistants and players in a place to succeed. We just saw Urban Meyer run out of town for his inability to build strong relationships, it seems Flores falls from that same tree. He has too many red flags and strained relationships and I honestly would have him lower if not for his positive results. Granted those results came against some pretty weak competition to help his record look better than it should — see Matt Nagy of 2020.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Nathaniel Hackett, OC – Green Bay Packers
We can finally move to the offensive side of the football. This is what scares me about the Chicago Bears’ current head coach search. I find that they are looking into too many defensive-minded head coaches and it makes me very scared to hear that they decided to hire Leslie Frazier as the next head coach. Yuck. Please, for the life of me, no! Can you tell I have a disdain for Frazier yet?
The Chicago Bears are interviewing the Packers’ current offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. The problem with Hackett is that he is working under a coach who I always thought could cut it as a head coach in Matt LaFleur. In 2018, I had LaFleur ranked in the top three of my head coaching candidate rankings. The team decided to hire Matt Nagy instead and here we are. That said, both LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett benefit from the fact they have future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
This is where the struggle comes with coaching candidates like Hackett. How much can we attribute to an offensive coordinator who runs an offense like the Packers? How much of the success is directly linked to Hackett versus LaFleur and Rodgers. That’s hard to determine — especially in this situation. My gut tells me that Hackett can’t “hack it”.
As the offensive Coordinator of the Bills in 2013 and 2014, his offenses were 19th and 26th in yards, while 22nd and 18th in points. In his defense, EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton were his starting quarterbacks. Hackett was the OC in Jacksonville from 2016 to 2018. He had one good year (2017) when the team finished sixth in yards and fifth in points. The team was ranked in the 20s his other two years. Of course, the Packers are top 10 in yards and points the last two seasons, but again, is this due to Rodgers more than Hackett? I’d say yes.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Jim Caldwell, Former Lions HC
There is some speculation that the Chicago Bears wanting to interview Jim Caldwell is to see if Caldwell would want to come in as the offensive coordinator under Brian Flores. Caldwell was supposed to be the assistant head coach and quarterbacks coach of the Dolphins in 2019, but health reasons kept him from the team. He stepped away from football as Brian Flores moved onto a different staff.
I’ve seen some unsubstantiated claims that Caldwell and Flores did not agree on many things and that had something to do with the situation. Seeing how Flores struggled with developing relationships with his staff, I wouldn’t be surprised by these rumors. That said, they are just rumors. At this point, I’d prefer to give Caldwell the gig over Flores even if Caldwell was the offensive coordinator.
Jim Caldwell has had a solid coaching record throughout his career. He was the Colts head coach from 2009 through 2011. He took over the team after Hall of Fame head coach Tony Dungy retired after the 2008 season. In his first two years, the team had a combined record of 24-8. In 2011, the Colts’ future shifted after Peyton Manning had neck surgery and was never the same quarterback again. The Colts finished 2-14 that season with Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins at quarterback.
It did not take long for Caldwell to land on his feet. He became the Ravens’ offensive coordinator in 2012 and held the job in 2013 when he helped Joe Flacco lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory. Caldwell earned a second head coaching gig as the Lions head coach in 2014. The Lions were the most relevant that they have been in decades under Jim Caldwell. Over his four-year tenure, the Lions’ combined record was 36-28. The team saw two playoff appearances and hasn’t been back since.
Caldwell would be an interesting choice, but he’s technically been away from football for quite some time. This is why he is only fourth in my rankings.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Doug Pederson, Former Eagles HC
This is a complete shock to me that I finished with Doug Pederson in my top three. If you were to have asked me a month ago if I wanted Doug Pederson as the next head coach of the Chicago Bears, my answer would have been a resounding no. He was not on my original shortlist of coaches, but that’s also because a few of those coaches are not even getting interviews by Chicago (Kellen Moore, Dave Toub, Jim Harbaugh).
With those guys not being considered at this point, Pederson finds himself third, but not in my top tier. I have Pederson, Jim Caldwell and Nathaniel Hackett in my second tier. The pattern here is obviously offensive-minded coaches versus defensive-minded coaches.
When we look at Doug Pederson, many people are fearful that he is just another Matt Nagy. The difference here is that Pederson has proven to be a better head coach during his time in Philadelphia than Nagy did here in Chicago.
Pederson seems less of a “rah-rah” guy compared to Nagy for one. He also lets his coordinators do more as evidenced in the past by the success of Frank Reich. In his five years as the head coach of the Eagles, he helped lead the team to three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. He has a combined record of 42-37-1 and that drastically fell off after a 4-11 season in 2020 — the year Pederson was fired.
Pederson isn’t the best quarterback guru, but I think he would make a solid CEO type. Would he bring John DeFilippo back as an offensive coordinator? DeFilippo served under Pederson as his quarterbacks coach in 2016 and 2017 before being promoted to the Vikings OC in 2018. DeFilippo moved onto the Jaguars as their OC in 2019 and was brought in as the quarterbacks coach here in Chicago. I honestly don’t want DeFilippo as the Bears OC under Pederson, but it could happen.
Pederson has shown he can lead a team and lean on his coordinators. This is something we cannot say about Nagy. That said, I don’t see him as a coach who can help groom Justin Fields enough. He struggled with Jalen Hurts and the match just might not work out. This is why he falls in this second tier and the next two guys are my clearcut favorites!
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Byron Leftwich, OC – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most people look at Byron Leftwich and say he isn’t cut out to be a head coach because he is living under the shadow of Bruce Arians and Tom Brady. Others will say, “have you seen the talent in Tampa Bay? Of course he’s going to be successful.” The thing is, we have more to look at when it comes to Byron Leftwich than meets the eye.
No one can overlook just how bad Byron Leftwich’s offense performed when he was the offensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals in 2018. Prior to landing that gig, Leftwich worked with the Cardinals as an intern before earning the quarterbacks coach job in 2017. His promotion to offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach came in 2018 and there are two glaring things to look at that likely led to his failure.
First, Leftwich was very inexperienced. He took over as offensive coordinator when Mike McCoy was fired in October. He was thrown into the fire without the ability to truly create his own offense. I’m sure he was able to put his stamp on a few things, but at that point in the season, a team isn’t going to be able to learn a whole new playbook. Second, the quarterback situation was awful.
Josh Rosen has proven to be one of the bigger busts in NFL history. It was a smart move for the Cardinals to move on from him quickly. He struggled in Miami and has not been a starter in the league since. It’s one thing to negate some credit of a coach when he has the likes of Aaron Rodgers. It’s another to not give him some room for failure when he has the likes of Josh Rosen. The Cardinals ranked dead last in 2018 in yards, points and offensive DVOA. Yikes.
Now onto the good. Byron Leftwich helped a Jameis Winston-led team to a top-five offensive finish. The team was third in points and third in yards. They ranked much lower in offensive DVOA because Winston threw nearly as many interceptions (30) as he did touchdowns (33). With Tom Brady steering the ship, the team has finished in the top three in offensive DVOA the last two years.
What I love about Leftwich is his scheme. He uses 11 and 12 personnel consistently. He will throw on early downs nearly as often as he does run, keeping defenses guessing. This is one issue we all have with Matt Nagy and his predictable offensive play calling. Another issue I’ve had is Matt Nagy’s ability to scheme receivers open. Here’s one example of how Byron Leftwich creates different levels to open up passing lanes for Brady. If this was Nagy, his receivers would be within five yards of one another.
80+ pass attempts for the @Bucs and @TomBrady through two weeks of #NFL football has paid dividends. Here, @MattBowen41 shows how their levels pass play concept is used in combo with the verticals to neutralize the Cover 2 Zone Sink Blitz. #GoBucs | @GregCosell | @NFLFilms pic.twitter.com/sgLdPzUJJr
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) September 24, 2021
I could go on and on about why Leftwich should be the guy. He will help bring in free agents since he was a former player and looks to get guys incentives they have in their contracts when possible. He is a motivator too — going all the way back to his college years at Marshall. Leftwich didn’t pan out as a top quarterback in the league, but I think he is going to be one of the better offensive head coaches we will see.
Chicago Bears Coaching Candidate: Brian Daboll, OC – Buffalo Bills
And the winner is — Brian Daboll. Brian Daboll has been my top head coaching candidate for quite some time. I take that back, Jim Harbaugh is still my top guy, followed by a never going to happen Sean Payton. Daboll is everything we want out of a head coach here in Chicago and honestly, I don’t see why the Bears wouldn’t give him the keys to Halas Hall.
I’m not going to even bring up the post-season victory that the Bills had over the Patriots last night. Their 47-17 dominating performance over the New England Patriots yesterday was a thing of beauty. That hasn’t always been the case for Daboll though.
When we look at the difference between Brian Daboll and Byron Leftwich, the one thing that stands out the most is experience. Daboll has seen time coaching under Bill Belichick on both the defensive and offensive sides of the ball. He served as the wide receivers coach from 2002 to 2006 before following Eric Mangini to the Jets in 2007 as their QB coach. He then followed Mangini again to Cleveland where he landed his first offensive coordinator job.
The Browns’ offense struggled, but let’s be honest, their talent level was pretty bad. Daboll’s offenses ranked in the bottom three in yards and points both years. At quarterback, the team had Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy and Jake Delhomme at the end of his career. I thought Quinn had a shot to be good coming out of Notre Dame, but I was biased and didn’t pay as much attention to the analytics and film back then.
The Browns’ biggest weapons during those two years were special teams specialist Joshua Cribbs, wide receiver Braylon Edwards, Madden cover icon, Peyton Hillis and a 30-year-old Ben Watson at tight end. Yeah, hard to blame Daboll for failing there. Daboll saw a little more success with Miami in 2011. That team had a few guys worth noting such as a 27-year-old Brandon marshall and 26-year-old Reggie Bush. That said, Matt Moore was the quarterback.
Daboll got another shot after Miami when he went to coach under Romeo Crennel in Kansas City. The team went 2-14 and the offense was stagnant. Daboll had his old Browns players with him in Brady Quinn and Peyton Hillis. He had some better weapons in Kansas City though. At least they had a solid wide receiver in Dwayne Bowe. Matt Cassel was flinging the football as the starter with Quinn seeing an equal eight games.
The thing is, we cannot just ignore these failures. What we can do is say that Brian Daboll has an extensive branch that he has learned under. After the 2012 season, he went back to New England as an assistant coach and tight ends coach (2013-2016). He helped Alabama go 13-1 and win the National Football Championship over Georgia. Learning under Nick Saban is never a bad thing. This allowed him to take his current role as OC of the Buffalo Bills where he has helped groom and develop Josh Allen into an MVP-caliber quarterback.
The Chicago Bears break Ryan Pace’s habit in full 2022 NFL mock draft
With the Chicago Bears moving on from general manager Ryan Pace, the team avoids his habit of trading up with this 2022 NFL mock draft.
As I mentioned, Brian Daboll and Byron Leftwich are my top two candidates as the interview process continues for our beloved Chicago Bears. If they hire anyone outside of my top two tiers, I’m not going to feel confident in this team as the 2022 NFL season approaches — no matter who takes over as GM.