While at the 2022 NFL Combine, the Bears’ new general manager, Ryan Poles, made it clear he would be open-minded when it came to acquiring additional draft capital. No one knows for sure what he means by that, but we have to assume that trading players would be on the table. The question is, what type of return will the Chicago Bears see for any of these players, and is a trade even worth it? What if that trade was for Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn?
There has been plenty of speculation that Khalil Mack could be one of those trade candidates. Fans have also been bringing Robert Quinn up as a hopeful candidate. We will have to see who Ryan Poles decides is worth keeping around. Matt Eberflus is obviously a crucial part of the process too — especially when it comes to the defense. He and Alan Williams are looking for guys who want to do the little extra things to make the defense elite.
The Chicago Bears should consider trading one of Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn
The problem is, an elite defense has not been working for the Chicago Bears. This old-school mentality of having a top-10 defense and holding opponents to less than 20 points per game just is not working. Keeping your opponents to under 20 points when your offense cannot average more the 20 points is just a recipe for failure. Yet, it seems Bears fans are wanting to continue down that path in 2022 rather than acquire additional resources to improve the offense quickly.
What I mean by this is I have seen plenty of conversations on social media surrounding both Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. Some are on the side of trading them for draft picks, while others are on the side of, why get rid of a great pass-rushing duo? I’ll be looking at them more specifically later, but for now, I am here to break down three reasons why the Chicago Bears should trade one, but not both of these two if possible.
The Chicago Bears defense can be good without Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn
We can go back to 2021 and realize that the Chicago Bears defense can still remain a top unit without one of Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn. Having both on the defensive line would be ideal, and I’m not going to be upset if the Bears keep both of them. This duo was wreaking havoc at the beginning of the 2021 season as both Quinn and Mack were averaging a sack each per game. It was great to see, but do you know what it got them? A record of 3-4 over seven games before Mack went down with a season-ending foot injury.
Some might think if Mack were to have remained healthy the team could have had a better season record, but I’m here to remind you that this team was fourth in the league in sacks with 49. The top team was the Steelers who undeservedly made the playoffs. They finished with 55. If we look at the top-10 teams in sacks, only five of those teams made the playoffs — granted the Rams were third (50) in sacks and won the Super Bowl.
The point is, generating sacks isn’t enough and we can see that by looking at how teams finished in this area last season. The league shifted to an offensive-minded league years ago and the Chicago Bears are still trying to play catch up. With Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn gone, the Chicago Bears will still have Trevis Gipson to pair with them plus any free agents or draft picks the team might pursue. Gipson stepped in for Mack last year and finished with seven sacks on the year.
It does not make sense to trade both Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, but trading one will allow the defense to remain good enough to compete. Without Mack, the Bears still finished 13th in defensive DVOA. They allowed 23.9 points per game but that wasn’t all on the defense, it was partly due to a stagnant offense. Improving the offense has to be the priority now. By the way, the Colts were 25th in sacks last year and eighth in defensive DVOA. This defense will be fine without one of Mack or Quinn.
Neither Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn will be key to the Chicago Bears future
Khalil Mack is 31 years old. Robert Quinn is nearly 32. Both are capable of playing good, if not great football for another three to five years depending on injuries. Many might be thinking, but Rob, with Justin Fields’ rookie contract, the window to win is never better than over the next four years. That’s partly true, but at the same time, that cannot happen unless the offense sees drastic improvement. To see the offense shift into a powerhouse means the salary cap allocation must change.
Currently, the team is paying nearly 30% of its salary cap to the defensive side of the ball. Khalil Mack is a big hit of that with 14.34% allocated to his salary alone. Robert Quinn is number two, Eddie Jackson is number three and Eddie Goldman is number five. Cody Whitehair is the only offensive player to be in the top five of salary cap allocation for the Chicago Bears and honestly, they need to consider moving on from him too if they can trade him post-June 1.
The team is stuck with Eddie Jackson this year, but they can definitely move on from one of Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn this offseason should they find a trade partner willing to give up enough draft capital. Trade rumors for Khalil Mack were apparently heating up at the 2022 NFL Combine. I’ve seen people talk about the cap hit. This is only truly a problem if the team is going to lose money when cutting a player. That’s not the case with either Quinn or Mack.
Should the Chicago Bears trade Khalil Mack, the team that would be trading for him would only have to pay him $12.05 million this season in base salary. His base salary in 2023 and 2024 would be $17.2 and $17.5 million and his roster/workout bonuses would also kick in. The Chicago Bears would be on the hook for the remaining $24 million in bonuses that would go on the 2022 books as dead cap. Eating $24 million in dead cap to save only $6 million dollars seems like a tough pill to swallow, but it shouldn’t matter. This is not about the 2022 season, it’s about building the future.
Robert Quinn’s contract is similar. Trading him would give the Chicago Bears a $4 million dollars cap savings. Quinn would come with a $12.8 million base salary for his new team in 2022 and then they’d be on the hook for his $18.2 million cap hit in 2023 and his $17.2 million cap hit in 2024.
I’m not looking at post-June 1 trades for either player at this point unless the draft pick value the team nets in return is not great enough for 2022. Trading Mack post-June 1 gives the Bears a $17 million dollars savings, but they cannot use it until after June 1, 2022, which doesn’t help much in free agency this year. Trading Quinn post-June 1 gives the Bears over $12 million to work with.
One of these two will net the most draft capital in a trade for the Chicago Bears
When we look at the current roster, only a few names stand out as players who can be traded who will actually net the Chicago Bears a return worth the trade. David Montgomery for example is not worth trading because running backs do not bring a return in value due to their positional value already being low. This is why we hardly see running backs selected in the first round any longer — especially the earlier part of the round.
Akiem Hicks is no longer under contract. Eddie Goldman looks to be a cut candidate. Should the team trade him, what type of return would they see? Maybe a max of a fifth-round pick? Nick Foles is a name to look at, but the Chicago Bears couldn’t even trade him last year, what type of draft compensation would they see this year? I am guessing nothing better than a sixth-rounder.
This is why, if Ryan Poles truly wants to add draft capital to the Chicago Bears five picks they currently have for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft, then one of Robert Quinn or Khalil Mack would need to be traded. The question is, what is the return in value for the two? Recent reports from Brad Biggs said that Khalil Mack would probably not bring back a first-round pick. I call bull on that one. He might not bring a return of a top-15 draft pick, but a bottom-half first-rounder is what I fully expect to see for a guy who flirts with defensive player of the year consistently.
Mack hasn’t been as good the last couple of years, but he was on pace to be dominant in 2021 before his foot injury. He played seven games and finished with six sacks. He was on pace for 15 sacks this season. Honestly, it’s probably good for Robert Quinn he went down with an injury as it might have been helpful to Quinn to secure the Bears’ single-season sack record of 18.5 sacks last season. Through seven games, Quinn had 5.5 sacks on the year.
If Khalil Mack is likely to return a late first or early second-round pick along with maybe a third-round pick similar to the Von Miller trade, then it seems to be worth it for a team looking to rebuild through the draft and shift to the offensive side of the ball. Robert Quinn wouldn’t bring back a first, but he too could bring back a second-round pick and maybe a fourth or fifth-rounder to pair with it.
Look, no one wants to trade Khalil Mack, not even me. He’s one of the best players I have seen in a Chicago Bears uniform. Even Robert Quinn made watching Bears football enjoyable last season. However, this is a business decision and we have to remove any emotion from it. Ryan Pace built the team through the defense, we need to see this team built through the offensive side of the ball.
Chicago Bears: 4 prospects the Bears should target in the trenches
One area the Chicago Bears will be looking to improve is in the trenches. With below-average play from the offensive and defensive line a season ago.
I have faith that Ryan Poles and assistant GM Ian Cunningham are the guys to do just that. If they want to keep Mack and/or Quinn, that’s fine. If they want to trade one of them, these are the reasons to back that decision. Personally, I’d prefer to keep the consistency of Mack over Quinn, but if trading Mack gives you the chance to land Tyler Linderbaum or maybe Chris Olave, the trade seems worth it.