3 reasons Christian Watson’s drop stats shouldn’t scare off Chicago Bears

Once a tweet came to the surface showcasing different wide receiver prospects and their drop rate, Christian Watson got dragged a bit. And the Chicago Bears should care about these guys, given some of them are Day 2 receivers that could help Justin Fields.

And as I’ve preached like it’s my religion, stats tell a different story than the game. Stats are a really good resource to have, but they can’t be the only thing looked at when deciding something about sports.

For example, Christian Watson played for North Dakota State University, a team that doesn’t pass very much. So, if 100 balls were thrown to him in a season, dropping five of those would be a 5% drop rate. It’s a pretty simple structure, but it’s a statistic that helps those with higher target volume.

I’ll dive into the nitty-gritty in a minute, but this is to set the scene on why stats can be misleading.

Chicago Bears fans turned to that once they saw Justin Fields’ stats. That’s at least true for the fans that actually watched the game. Those that checked the stat sheet after each game saw bad numbers, and they turned in their fandom after another “bust”.

So, with the NFL Draft only weeks away and the Chicago Bears likely to get a wide receiver on that list above, here’s the argument on why Christian Watson’s 12.7% drop rate shouldn’t scare the Bears enough to not draft him on Day 2— if he’s still there.

Reason No. 1: How many total drops does Christian Watson actually have?

After seeing the original tweet, I decided to go into the advanced stat world to see what that overall drop rate meant.

Since I often say that stats don’t tell a single story, I looked into the Whys— like the beloved Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy taught me.

https://twitter.com/DakotaZientek/status/1512195320704290825

In Watson’s four-year career with the NDSU Bison, Christian Watson caught a total of 104 passes, while being targeted 180 times. Looking at that, he has a ~58% catch rate. Now, if you take out the season he performed poorest (a COVID season in 2020), his catch rate jumps to ~65%.

Now, just because he was targeted and didn’t get a reception, that doesn’t mean there was a drop. It could’ve been an uncatchable ball, it could’ve gotten intercepted, it could’ve gotten batted at the line; there are many possibilities on why someone didn’t catch a ball outside of the fact that it was a drop.

Along with that, how many drops did Christian Watson actually have in his entire four-year career? 16 total drops.

Just to compare with the players in the top tier of the original tweet (George Pickens, 2.1%; and Skyy Moore, 3.3%), how many total drops did they have in their entire college career?

George Pickens drops per season

• 2019: 52 targets, 33 receptions, 0 drops
• 2020: 43 targets, 29 receptions, one drop
• 2021*: one target, one reception, 0 drops
  * injured most of 2021
  
• Total: one total drop (very impressive)

Skyy Moore drops per season

• 2019: 80 targets, 47 reception, two drops
• 2020: 36 targets, 25 reception, one drop
• 2021: 117 targets, 90 receptions, three drops
• Total: six total drops

So, while neither of them has 16 drops in their college career, Pickens essentially played two seasons, but even still, his hands are as close to a sure thing as anything.

As for Skyy Moore, his 2021 season really buffed up his numbers, as he got almost forty more targets in 2021 than he did in 2019; and he got almost 80 more targets in 2021 than he did in 2020.

As for Christian Watson, he had a total of 180 targets in his career. That’s more than Skyy Moore had in two seasons at Western Michigan.

So, with the target’s narrative out of the way, what’s the next reason that the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be scared off by Christian Watson’s drops stat.

Reason No. 2: How many targets per game did Christian Watson really see?

Given the offense that the NDSU Bison run, does Christian Watson even see the ball enough to make the 12.7% drop rate significant?

I say no.

In my deep dive, I was able to find how many targets Watson saw per game, and it really opened my eyes as to what the original stat was: a gotcha stat. It’s a stat that, on the surface, looks really bad. However, when digging into it more, it’s not great that he’s had as many drops as he has, but it’s not as jarring as the original stat comes off.

In the 2020 season, NDSU played eight regular-season games, and in those games, Watson was getting just under six targets per game.

And that was the year with his most drops (7).

Outside of the chaotic 2020 season, Christian Watson wasn’t really dropping much. Sure, he had nine drops in three seasons barring 2020, and while that’s not great, it goes into my next point perfectly.

So, what’s the final reason that the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be as worried about Christian Watson’s drops as Twitter seemingly is?

Reason No. 3: North Dakota State hardly passed the ball

Something I remember learning in school was that statistics can tell multiple different stories. In fact, I took a hybrid class that was 50% a statistics course and 50% a speech/debate course.

In that class, as well as the teachings I likely tuned out during middle school, I learned about sample sizes and how sample sizes can drastically change a statistical outcome if skewed one way or another.

When studying the case of Christian Watson, his drop rate is a result of a small sample size, comparatively to the other receivers on this list.

https://twitter.com/DakotaZientek/status/1512234309234700307

In the 2021 season, North Dakota State only passed more than 25 times once. This was week eight against Missouri State, and it was a game outside the norm for NDSU: They were in a close game.

The average passing attempts per game in 2021 for the NDSU Bison was around 17.

In the modern NFL— and even most college football— has been more of an air raid offense. For the Bison, this couldn’t be further from the case.

So, even if Christian Watson were to drop one pass, he’s already dropped one of his few targets per game, making the percentage of his drops higher.

This probably isn’t rocket science to most, but the fact that Christian Watson is getting dragged for his “drop problem” is ridiculous.

He’s one of the top Day 2 receivers in this draft, and the proof is in the pudding.

Now, if other teams get scared off by Christian Watson’s alleged butterfingers, hopefully, the Chicago Bears can bring him into an offense that will hopefully feature him more than not.