ESPN created a new tool for the 2022 NFL draft called their Draft Day Predictor. This is supposed to be an analytical look at team needs, and which players will be available at certain parts of the draft. You can read more about their method here. The tool looks into the top 100 picks and finds the best fits when it comes to the team, and their draft slot. With the Chicago Bears not having a first-round pick this is a nice tool to look at who may be on the board at certain slots.
If ESPN analytics ran the 2022 NFL draft, who would the Chicago Bears draft?
Bernard Raimann is a name that many mock drafts and media types have been linking to the Chicago Bears recently. According to ESPN, there is a 60% chance that he will be on the board, and he is the most drafted player by the Chicago Bears from this model.
The fit makes sense, as he would step into the left tackle role. The team could have Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom fill right guard and right tackle. Raimann has the athletic upside of Eric Fisher, a player Ryan Poles once drafted.
Still, Raimann will fall in the draft because he is a bit older and because his arm length is not ideal. Raimann is new to the position, but it is hard to say he is raw because he has excellent footwork. His age can detract him to pick 39, but the upside of an instant left tackle starter is a good bet in the second round.
This pick is a bit more surprising. Most media types seem to see Kaiir Elam being a late first-round pick who may not make it until pick 39. However, the ESPN analytics has the odds that he will be available at pick 48 as 50/50. If that is true, ESPN notes that this means the Bears will take Elam in almost all scenarios. There is only a 40% chance that he is available at pick 49, a quick drop from one pick.
This makes plenty of sense and Elam would be a great fit in Chicago. He profiles similarly to Jaylon Johnson, and they both play with quick feet, length, and good understanding. Both are also much better down the sidelines than they are following wideouts over the middle of the field.
Elam is one of the youngest players in the draft but is a three-year starter, getting on the field as a true freshman. It appears as though prospect fatigue has set in for a player who should get more first-round discussions than currently happening.
It is surprising that ESPN is confident in him falling this far, but it is not surprising that after the Bears pick that his odds of lasting to pick 49 and 50 go way down.
Jalen Tolbert is another player that is a bit surprising to be here. When we wrote about him we thought he may be in play for the 48th selection, or even 39th if the wide receiver run came earlier than expected.
Still, ESPN analytics has Tolbert at just over 50% chances to still be on the board when the Chicago Bears pick at 71st overall. With that in mind, they are certainly going to be heavy favorites to draft him in this slot.
The Bears passing on a wideout in their first two picks would probably infuriate fans and put them in a spot where they have to nab one in round three. ESPN lays out an ideal situation here, but even Khalil Shakir, Calvin Austin, and Alec Pierce are on the board in more than 50% of the ESPN simulations.
In our draft profile on Jalen Tolbert, we highlighted how his game as a downfield target could be a great fit for Justin Fields. In the third round, it would make up for missing on wide out earlier.
If the Chicago Bears walk away from the 2022 NFL draft with Bernard Raimann, Kaiir Elam, and Jalen Tolbert how would fans be feeling?