The Chicago Bears finally drafted a wide receiver in Velus Jones from Tennessee. They waited until the third round to do so, but it was a possibility from the start that this would happen. Now, the question will be whether they drafted the right wide receiver or not.
Justin Fields approved of the pick, and you have to be happy that Ryan Poles is including him in the process. With that in mind, what did they like about Velus Jones?
3. Velus Jones Production Profile
Player Profiler has done a great job at identifying what the most predictive metrics are for examing how productive they can be in the NFL. Stats such as College Dominator, College YPR, College Target Share, and Breakout Age are four of the more predictive metrics.
They are predictive they show whether the team wanted to get you the ball and what you did with your chances. Below you can see the production profile for Velus Jones.
Velus Jones athletic and production profile courtesy of @rotounderworld pic.twitter.com/0LdbeTdphz
— Bear Goggles On (@BearGogglesOn) April 30, 2022
His College Dominator is in the 29th percentile. With a 22.7% dominator, he will join the list of wideouts below who did not hit 25%.
Here is every player in @rotounderworld's database at WR who earned less than a 25% dominator rating in college.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) March 4, 2020
I've highlighted a few notable "hits" as well. pic.twitter.com/9zhocE3X0u
The hits highlighted include Andrew Hawkins, Adam Humphries, Terry McLaurin, Danny Amendola, Wes Welker, Chris Hogan, Cole Beasley, Tyreek Hill, Percy Harvin, and Santana Moss. It is not impossible for him to join this list, but there is a long list of players who do not hit 25% in college and then struggle to produce in the NFL.
His yards per reception are also in the 27th percentile, which one again is not where you want to be. Even when he does get the ball, he was not producing as often as you would want. His target share is in the 60th percentile which is inspiring in that the coaches pushed to get the ball in his hands.
However, it also speaks to the low dominator and yards per reception of it not being a lack of chances. Lastly, is the breakout age which will be discussed to death. In the first percentile, there just are not many NFL players that succeed that are like him.
2. Velus Jones Return Game Upside
The biggest thing that Velus Jones has going for him is his special teams’ background. When he started his career at USC and was second-team All-Pac 12 as a return man in 2019. Then, in 2020 and 2021 Velus Jones led the SEC in return yards.
In 2021, he was named first-team All-SEC and was the SEC co-Special Teams Player of the Year. Considering Jones will be 25 years old as a rookie he will be expected to contribute immediately. That should mean that he will be the one taking the opening kick-off of week one as well.
There is some hope that he can be this dynamic with the ball in his hands on offense as well. However, the big difference seems to come down to straight-line speed compared to a change of direction.
Velus Jones can fly, and when he gets one hole he can turn on the jets and nobody can catch him. However, when he has to wiggle, stop and start, and change directions he starts to get stiff. The Chicago Bears have to understand this and make the most of this skill set on offense now.
1. Velus Jones Athletic Profile
The most impressive attribute of Velus Jones is that he is over 200 pounds and ran a 4.31 40-yard dash. Players with similar size and speed from recent pre-draft workouts are
Bethel Johnson, Josh Boyce, Terry McLaurin, Andre Caldwell, JaMarr Chase, Ryan Swope, Jason Hill, Parris Campell.
One thing that is interesting to note is Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was in slide one with a low college dominator rating as well, and just so happens to have also played with Justin Fields. Did Fields see similarities to the speedster McLaurin?
Below you can see the difference between the two in their athletic profiles.
"View post on imgur.com"
When it comes to size, and speed, you can make the comparison. The big differences are in the jumps and agility drills. A McLaurin is about 4″ better in both broad and vertical jump, showing a bit more explosion from his lower body.
He also was much better in the agility drills. This goes back to why Jones is so dynamic as a kick returner, but less with the ball in his hands on offense. When he has to drop his hops and change the direction he slows down and it shows in a big way. The difference between an 81st percentile 3-cone and. a11th percentile 3-cone is shown in how the two get in and out of their breaks.
So, fans should like the speed that Velus Jones brings but understand that it is more straight-line speed than a complete athletic profile.