The Chicago Bears will be debating between Will Anderson and Jalen Carter, at least until they make a decision to trade down or not to trade down. Both players are elite, and this is not saying anything against that. However, both prospects are not picture-perfect Hall of Fame locks, either. There are questions to both.
Jalen Carter was on a back-to-back National Championship-winning defense and should be in the top five players of any rankings list created. Still, there are reasons why he may not be the hands-down number-one player in the draft. Here is why.
3. Should the Chicago Bears side with production?
Jalen Carter has his purpose, but Will Anderson is a production machine. Both of them are three-year players. Both had some injury concerns. However, in total, PFF has Anderson down for 207 pressures, meanwhile, Carter is at 79.
They have Jalen Carter with 51 run stops, and Will Anderson at 109. When you see that the production is doubled it is pretty hard to look away.
One thing that is helping Will Anderson is that he has 2,204 snaps in his career, compared to 1,075 for Jalen Carter. So, he should be twice as productive. Still, Anderson playing that much more has to also be a note in his favor.
Beyond that, Will Anderson posted a 32.2% win rate as a pass rusher last year and had a 16.5 pass-rush productivity rating. Meanwhile, Jalen Carter had a 24.3% win rate, and an 11.7 productivity rating. Both numbers are strong, but even on a per-snap basis, you have to lean toward Anderson being much more productive.
To be fair, Jalen Carter has a 15% run stop rate and an average depth of tackle at 0.8. Both numbers are elite. Will Anderson is at 7%, and an ADT of 1, so he is the lesser run-stopper. Still, Anderson did post a 10% run-stop rate last season, so the gap may not be quite as big.
If they are looking for the best run-stopper, it is Jalen Carter. However, Will Anderson is more productive as a pass rusher and gives enough as a run-stopper to make this more of a question.
2. Is a low snap count for Jalen Carter concerning
If the Chicago Bears take Jalen Carter, they will take a player with 1,075 career snaps. That is a good sample but is smaller compared to what you typically see. By season, he played 287 snaps, 396, and 392 snaps. To compare, Will Anderson played 646, 873, and 685 snaps in the past three years. Even in the down years of Anderson, he is close to double the snaps of Carter.
Because of the clock slowing on first downs college football typically gets more plays off than the NFL. Georgia knows this and substitues their lineman more often than others to keep them fresh. Beyond that. blowouts kept Jalen Carter off of the field more. This is not just because he is dead tired.
Still, he is going to need to play 400 snaps in the NFL. Last season Justin Jones played 744 snaps. That was a huge step up in snaps, but in his career, he was under 400 just once, in his rookie season. Three years after he played 504 snaps, 527 snaps, and 487 snaps.
The Chicago Bears may have used Jones a bit much this year, but if Carter does go number one, they would like similar usage. Even if the 480-520 range is more normal because the hope is the team has more depth, that is a step up in work for Jalen Carter.
Carter has proven that on a per-snap basis, he is a beast, and his physical presence suggests that he should have no issue getting more work. Still, before you take a guy number overall you would like to know for sure that 500 snaps in a season are not a big deal.
1. Jalen Carter can end up on the ground a bit
This one is more about the tape than the numbers. For most of the case against Carter, it is hard to turn on the tape and find much. When his engine is running and he is at his best, there are few you have ever seen as dominant.
He gets in the backfield with speed and violent hands. If there is one knock against Carter, it Is that he ends up on the ground a bit. It is sometimes surprising because he is light on his feet, and when he moves it looks fluid.
Still, at times when he is working down the line to defend the run he can get in front of himself and take himself out. Beyond that, he is much more of a forward-flowing rusher than a player who will plant his feet in the ground and claim his stance.
When asked to hold up with strength in the run game, he is not as effective as shooting gaps and penetrating the backfield. This can also end up with him on the ground.
As noted, if he is getting tackles for loss, and everyone in a while he needs his nose tackle to help him on the goal line, you can live. Jalen Carter is a beast and will be an excellent pro football player.
However, while his tape is close to the complete package, he does end up on the ground more than expected. He also has a lot less production than Will Anderson and a surprisingly low snap count as well. These are enough things to question when looking at pick number one.