Nearly 11 months ago, general manager Ryan Poles changed the trajectory of the Chicago Bears' future by pulling off one of the most impressive draft trades in recent history. After earning the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft, the team traded the pick to the Carolina Panthers for a haul that included multiple picks in last year's draft, star receiver D.J. Moore, and Carolina's first-round pick in the 2024 draft, a selection that became the first overall pick yet again.
The Bears are the third team over the past decade to possess the first overall pick at the season's end in back-to-back years (Cleveland Browns 2017-18, Jacksonville Jaguars 2021-22), and both the Browns and Jaguars used one of those picks to select a quarterback first overall in Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence respectively. For the Bears, it remains a question as to whether or not they will draft a signal caller at the top of this year's draft, but if the team sticks with Justin Fields, they could potentially trade the pick for another impressive selection of assets.
While it is not known officially which way Poles is leaning - or if he has already made a decision in his head - the general manager's phone will certainly be blown up between now and the draft by other front offices desperate to acquire the first overall selection. With that said, here are six semi-realistic suitors who could move up with the Bears, likely for quarterback Caleb Williams, and an idea of the potential compensation that Chicago could receive.
1. The Washington Commanders
One of the most obvious trade partners for the Bears would be the Washington Commanders, who recently hired Williams' collegiate offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to the same position. With the second overall pick, this would result in the shortest possible trade back for the Bears, leaving them in striking range to select a plethora of elite players, including non-Williams QB prospects.
It is hard to forecast what a trade just one spot back would look like - although it would certainly be more than the Bears gave up to move from third to second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, where they selected quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Still, the Commanders want Williams, and with new ownership, it would make sense for this group to try to put their stamp on the franchise early.
In return, the Bears would likely be focused on recouping a second-round pick this year, which was sent to Washington at the trade deadline for Montez Sweat. To add another top-50 selection would be great, but it is hard to foresee this trade going through without at least a future first-round pick. At first glance, this might not seem like the most impressive haul, but adding multiple premium selections while falling back only one spot could be a successful draft formula.
Chicago Bears receive: 2nd overall, 40th overall, 2025 1st
2. The New England Patriots
Perhaps no team in the NFL is going through more of a remodel than the New England Patriots, who have finally descended from a 20-plus-year reign atop the league. With Bill Belichick out as head coach, his successor, Jerod Mayo, may look to kick his tenure off with a bang and pull off a franchise-altering move. The Patriots still have Mac Jones on the roster, who was picked only a handful of selections after Fields in 2021, but there does not seem to be a lot of faith in Jones's ability to become a franchise-caliber quarterback
Under Belichick, who served as both the head coach and general manager, the Patriots rarely traded up in the draft, rather they often traded down to collect more mid-round picks. But again, the Patriots have an opportunity to reestablish their identity as an aggressive front office, and signaling the changing of the guard by having Mayo and company bring in their own quarterback prospect could make a lot of sense.
This trade would be a great jumpstart for the Patriots, who would be leapfrogging perhaps their strongest threat for Williams in the Commanders. To allow this move to happen, the Bears would again likely try to recoup a second-round pick this season, but would also look to add future picks within the first two rounds.
Chicago Bears receive: 3rd overall, 34th overall, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd, 2026 2nd
3. The New York Giants
Trading back with the New York Giants may be more of a fantasy than reality (the team has traded up in the first round just twice since 2002, both of which were to move up one slot). The Giants aren't usually keen on forfeiting future draft capital for immediate gratification, but with a franchise seemingly at the tipping point, making an aggressive move with the Bears could make a lot of sense for both organizations.
The Giants, who are slated to pay Daniel Jones $35.5 million next season, have a potential out with the former Duke quarterback in the 2025 offseason. Trading up would essentially force the Giants to admit that they went wrong on Jones' extension, but the law of sunk costs should apply to an organization with a talented play-caller and a handful of quality offensive weapons.
There is certainly a double-edged sword in trading back with the Giants; the Bears would net a better trade package the further down they trade, but it would force the team to have less autonomy at the top of the class. This could potentially take the Bears out of reach of players like Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers, but it could be worth it to hoard picks in the long run, especially if Chicago can acquire impending free agent running back Saquon Barkley on a sing/tag and trade.
Chicago Bears receive: 6th overall, 47th overall, 2025 1st, RB Saquon Barkley
4. The Atlanta Falcons
Simply put, the Falcons have too much offensive talent on rookie contracts to not be interested in adding a rookie quarterback in the draft. The Desmond Ridder experiment seems to have run its course in Atlanta, and being aggressive to acquire a top QB could be the formula for the Falcons to break through in a winnable NFC South.
With a new head coach in Raheem Morris, this regime will likely want to identify their guy early in their run, with perhaps this year's draft being Atlanta's best option to find Matt Ryan's successor as the team's franchise signal caller. Williams would certainly bring a different vibe to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and he could end up being the gunslinger that the team thought they were getting in Brett Favre over 30 years ago (Favre was a gunslinger, but was not in Atlanta for long).
The Falcons currently possess the eighth overall pick, just one spot shy of the ninth overall pick the Bears received from the Panthers a season ago. Considering the top of this year's quarterback class is as promising, if not more, than last season, the Bears could expect a similar trade package, including several premium draft picks and potentially a quality starter.
Chicago Bears receive: 8th overall, 2025 1st, 2026 1st, 2027 2nd, DT Grady Jarrett
5. The Denver Broncos
The Broncos should qualify as a team interested in trading up for the first overall pick, especially when considering Sean Payton's comments regarding Caleb Williams on The Herd in November 2022, where he called the USC quarterback a "generational player", and presented the player as such a strong prospect that "clubs [will] begin to lose to try to put themselves in a position [to draft him]". After starting the season 1-5, the Broncos could have potentially tanked to secure a top draft pick but instead went on an impressive hot streak to end the season.
"At some point, we're going to move to a lottery system in the NFL. This is a player that possibly does that."
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) November 28, 2022
— @SeanPayton on Caleb Williams pic.twitter.com/XV4DTEytSO
It appears that running it back with Russell Wilson at the helm is not in the Broncos' primary plans, and despite forfeiting premier draft capital to acquire the former Seahawks quarterback, the new ownership in Denver may be willing to shell out the big bucks - or picks - once again.
Trading back with the Broncos would seriously change how the Bears can attack the top of the draft, but for Denver to trade up 11 spots to select their potential franchise quarterback, it would take several high-end picks, a challenge that is made more difficult by the fact that the Broncos do not possess their own second-round pick in the impending draft.
Chicago Bears receive: 12th overall, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd, 2026 1st, 2027 2nd, WR Courtland Sutton
6. The Seattle Seahawks
Perhaps the most surprising team on this list, the Seahawks could be an interesting team to monitor for a shocking draft trade. With a Shane Waldron-less Geno Smith set to enter the second season of his three-year extension, the Seahawks can actually move on from the quarterback's contract this offseason if need be. Replacing Smith with Williams would take a lot of draft capital, but it would cheapen the team's cost at the position while giving the team more money to add talent around a rookie quarterback.
Interestingly, there is a strong USC connection between Williams and Pete Carroll, who transitioned to a front-office role with the Seahawks this season. The former coach could try to influence the new regime to select a quarterback from his old college ranks, but Carroll is currently listed as an advisor and executive vice president of the team, so we will have to wait and see how much power he will have in the team's personnel decisions.
Again, this move would make a lot of sense for Seattle, who could reset their quarterback pay scale while potentially improving the talent available at the starting level. Like the Broncos, the Seahawks do not have their second-round pick this season - traded to the New York Giants for Leonard Williams - so it will have to be an impressive amalgamation of other assets for the Bears to even think about moving a full half-round back.