The Chicago Bears extended Cole Kmet, the first of a few big decisions that the team will have to make before the season starts. This was also one that had many fans split. Some see this as a no-brainer, while others think it is an overpay and a bad use of resources. While the case can be made for both, it ultimately was a decision the Bears had to make.
Cole Kmet has more production than some fans realize
Fans will look at Cole Kmet, see his stats, and think they are not all that impressive. However, they are not factoring in multiple things. First, Kmet will be only 24 years old this year, and more than that, most tight ends do not even break out until later in their career.
So, when you look at the production of Kmet in the context of his age and position, he is in a good spot. Kmet has 1,399 yards in his career. Below are the only players to surpass that many yards before they turned 24 years old.
Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Mike Ditka, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Johnny Mitchell, Charlie Young, Kellen Winslow, Mark Bavaro, Eric Ebron, Jeremy Shockey
Yes, he is closer to Mitchell, Young, Winslow, Barvaro, Ebron, and Shockey than the big names at the top. That is an exclusive list, and almost every player who performed better than him at this age went on have a long and successful career.
If these are the players that Cole Kmet is on track to become, it is pretty obvious why they are betting on him. When you compare Kmet to guys in their prime, it is unfair, but when you compare him to other tight ends his age, it is pretty clear that Kmet has more to show.
Betting on what Cole Kmet can become
This goes hand-in-hand with the last point. Cole Kmet has produced a lot for his age. Still, at his age, it is clear that the best is yet to come. When looking at some of the top tight ends in the NFL, none of them hit their career peak by age 23, and some of them were not even in the NFL at that point.
Dallas Goedert had his best season when he was 26, so the peak of play for Kmet may not even come until he is a few years into this new deal. For comparison, Goedert was a rookie when he was 23; Kmet has played three seasons. Darren Waller started late, but his best year was at age 27.
George Kittle was 24 when he entered the NFL, and he was 26 and 27 when he had his best years. Travis Kelce did not have a yard until he was 25 years old and really was not making huge plays until he was closer to 27. Zach Ertz peaked at age 28, Evan Engram is 28, and it is coming together for him, Mark Andrews had his best season at age 26, and TJ Hockenson is coming off of age 25 when it looks like it is coming together for him
There is not a single player in the top tight ends in the NFL that peaked at the age of Cole Kmet. There is a better case to be made that Kmet may not hit his peak for another three or four years before the case can be made that we have seen the best of Kmet.
Fans are seeing what Kmet is and not thinking he can improve, but every tight end who gets on the field at his age gets so much better once they hit a later stage of their career. Cole Kmet should be the same.
Cole Kmet could get a third contract with the Chicago Bears
We have harped on the age with Cole Kmet, and it is hard not to because it is a major factor in the extension. As we noted with some of the top players in the NFL at tight end, a lot of them did not hit their peak until age 27. For Cole Kmet, that may be about the time that he is looking to re-up.
Kmet will be 24 this year. He is signed for his ages 25 through 28 seasons. Those are the prime years. So, the Chicago Bears are betting that good things happen, but more than that, they are betting that they have a shot to make him a mainstay on this franchise.
By the third or fourth year of his extension, the Chicago Bears should either be seeing the best of Kmet or they should be ready to move on. With that in mind, it is easy to see them extending him once again. Guys like Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, and Travis Kelce are showing that careers can extend into your 30s. So, the team may give him another three-year deal after this.
With four years on his rookie salary, four years on this extension, and another one looming, we could be looking at a player who is here for a decade. When Ryan Pace drafted him, that was the hope, and now that Ryan Poles is taking over, he is showing that if you earn it, he will give it to you. This could only be the start of Kmet becoming a household name as a long-time Chicago Bears tight end.
Cole Kmet's production compared to his peers checks out
Cole Kmet is pretty productive for his age, but overall, he can hang with some of the players in his salary range. Yes, he is not in the Travis Kelce or George Kittle discussion, but the money is not there yet, either.
The names that he checks in close to are Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Zach Ertz. With Ertz at $10.55M per year and Engram at $13.75M, the rest lie in between when it comes to salary, including Kmet.
Now, here is what it looks like when you compare their statistics. These stats are just since 2020 when Kmet entered the NFL.
Name | Catches | Yards | Y/C | TD | AV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dawson Knox | 121 | 1392 | 11.5 | 18 | 14 |
Hunter Henry | 151 | 1725 | 11.4 | 15 | 15 |
Evan Engram | 182 | 1828 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
Cole Kmet | 138 | 1399 | 10.1 | 9 | 14 |
David Njoku | 113 | 1316 | 11/6 | 10 | 12 |
Zach Ertz | 157 | 1504 | 9.6 | 10 | 14 |
He is fourth in catches, fourth in yards, fifth in Y/C, fifth in TDs, and tied for second in AV. He also is fifth in salary of this group. So, he is in the right range for the right group. As always, we have to mention the age.
Engram will be 29, Njoku will be 27, Knox will be 27, Henry will be 29, and Ertz will be 33. When you factor in that Kmet will just be 24, it is pretty easy to understand where the Chicago Bears paying them comes from.
Chicago Bears have plenty of cap space
While the Cole Kmet extension has not officially hit the books yet, the deal will actually not cost the team too much in the short term. With that in mind, this is a pretty easy decision because the team can afford to do it.
As they stand right now, they have $34M in cap space. That could give or take a bit in the coming days, but the team will not be able to spend it all. So, why not give Cole Kmet some?
The salary cap rolls over, so anything the Bears save this year is credited toward next year. Even with the Kmet extension, they are crediting so much cap space that the hit will hardly show up on the books then as well. They are going to be one of the highest cap space teams again next year, even if fans think they may have overpaid for Kmet.
The Chicago Bears smoothed out the cap hits, so there are no years where they have to restructure or shuffle things. They may go on a spending spree in the coming seasons, and that may impact the cap situation. However, as they stand right now, it is hard to see the team looking back and wishing that they had their salary of Kmet back.