We are nearly a month away from the 2023 NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears have added nine free agents through the first two waves of free agency. To date, the Bears have agreed to $158,050,000 in free-agency contracts that span between one and four years. There could be a couple more signings before the end of April, but I would not expect any splash-free agents. Defensive end should be on Ryan Poles' radar, but I am not certain Poles is looking to add any of the top names like Yannick Ngakoue or Frank Clark. The next step for Poles to add some serious talent is the 2023 NFL Draft.
Now that the trade happened and a large portion of free agency is in the books, I wanted to do a new mock draft. I used Pro Football Focus (PFF) for the simulator. I should point out that I traded back in the first round in this mock draft. Although I believe that to be the best approach for Ryan Poles and the Chicago Bears, it should be noted that trading back is not always as easy as it sounds. Teams are not always looking to give up draft capital to move up -- especially if the move is only a few spots. That is what happened in this case.
The Chicago Bears trade back with the Houston Texans in the first round
As you can see, the Chicago Bears made a trade with the Houston Texans. It wasn't the move that was on the table according to Peter King's recent interview with Ryan Poles. Instead, the Bears moved back from ninth overall to 12. To move back, the Bears and Texans swapped second-round picks. Chicago sent the 61st-overall pick received in the Panthers trade involving the 1st-round pick and in return Poles received the Texans' pick at 33.
Some fans might not find this to be enough. However, this would be in the Chicago Bears' favor by 138 points when using the Jimmy Johnson value chart. I found that there were enough options available that I could move down from nine to 12. In this mock simulation, the Texans selected Peter Skoronski at nine. Other names that were available included Paris Johnson, Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy and Devon Witherspoon. Who fell to 12?
The Chicago Bears look to the defensive side of the ball early
1st Round | 12th Pick | Myles Murphy, DE - Clemson
This happens every year. Heading into December, Myles Murphy was viewed as a top-five prospect. Now, as the NFL Combine and Pro Days take place, fans and analysts fall in love with workout warriors. One NFL Draft Analyst actually put Adetomiwa Adebawore into the top 15 of their rankings. Mel Kiper is said analyst. Now, I am a big proponent of Adetomiwa Adebawore and the Senior Bowl put me onto his film. He tested off the charts at the NFL Combine and also at his Pro Day. To have him in the top 15 though is one bold take by Kiper. These things happen over and over again though.
I'll point out that when it comes to mock drafts, Mel Kiper is not the most accurate these days. I don't have a leg to stand on as mine are not 100 percent accurate either, but I do feel that too many analysts move prospects up and down their draft boards based on testing. I think that is what is happening with Myles Murphy.
If we add the quarterbacks to the top of draft boards (I wouldn't), then Myles Murphy should still be viewed as a top-10 prospect. To land him at 12 would be fantastic. I have no idea how Poles has constructed his draft board. I can tell you that on my board, Murphy is ranked as my second EDGE rusher behind only Will Anderson. Tyree Wilson has more upside but also has more risk. Murphy is a safe bet and I think he will be an eight-to-12-sack guy almost every year in the NFL.
I considered the other names, especially Paris Johnson. However, the dropoff from the top EDGE rushers is greater in my opinion than the dropoff from from the top offensive tackles. The Bears' defensive line accounted for nine sacks in 22. The team made moves in free agency, but that is not enough.
The Chicago Bears turn to the offensive line with early second-round pick
2nd Round | 33rd Pick | Anton Harrison, OT - Oklahoma
After securing a defensive end who should instantly make an impact for the better, the Chicago Bears turned to the offensive side of the ball. With the addition of Nate Davis, everyone is attempting to speculate how the Bears' offensive line will shake out of training camp. One thing is for sure, we can guess and guess, but there is no guarantee any of us will be correct. Ryan Poles hinted at the idea of possibly moving Cody Whitehair back to center. He has nearly 4,000 snaps at the position. Teven Jenkins could move to left tackle, or maybe it will be Davis. Jenkins would be my guess.
It appears the team is moving forward with Braxton Jones at left tackle. It will obviously depend on the outcome of the 2023 NFL Draft. For example, if the Bears select Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones at nine overall, that could push Braxton Jones to the right tackle spot. Or, maybe one of the rookies plays right tackle. Either way, that's not how this mock draft is working out.
With the early second-round pick, the Chicago Bears lock in a right tackle by selecting Anton Harrison. This was a little early for me when it comes to Harrison, but I knew he would not last until the Bears' pick at 54. Harrison is a great scheme fit for Luke Getsy's offense. He fits better in a zone-running scheme. He is a little shorter at only 6'4", but has good length and brings strong pass-blocking skills. Like Braxton Jones, Harrison will need to bulk up his frame by adding strength but I have no concerns with that as he moves into an NFL program.
Chicago Bears look to the offensive line again in the second round
2nd Round | 54th Pick | John Michael Schmitz, C - Minnesota
We keep hearing how Ryan Poles believes the team needs to build through the trenches. Well, he has done little to show for it outside of selecting multiple offensive linemen and one project defensive lineman last season. This year, the splash signing to date was Nate Davis. The 2023 NFL Draft class has some solid depth in the trenches on both sides of the ball. However, can a team count on starting that many rookies?
Well, since Poles has done little to further shoring up either side to this point, I am doing it for him. First, I added Myles Murphy to play defensive end. Next, I added Anton Harrison to compete for and hopefully win the right tackle spot. Now, I am adding a new center into the mix.
Drafting John Michael Schmitz to the roster allows the Chicago Bears to be a little more flexible with how they address the Cody Whitehair situation. If Nate Davis remains the right guard -- the only position he has ever played in the NFL -- and John Michael Schmitz proves he can lock down the center spot, then Cody Whitehair could be expendable. Then again, if Teven Jenkins' injury is a concern, it's possible they keep Whitehair around. No matter what, I don't see Whitehair being cut before June 1st. If he is a post-June 1 cut, the Bears save over $9 million in cap space.
John Michael Schmitz has also moved up and down prospect boards as of late. Pro Football Focus for example has him as the third-best center. I had him as the top center prior to the Senior Bowl and I still have him there today. If he isn't available, Joe Tippman or Luke Wypler would be my next choice for the position. I view both of these guys as late, second-round, or early, third-round picks. Schmitz is likely to go sooner and I'm not sure he falls to 54. If he does, I will be pissed if Poles passes on him. Here are more details on Schmitz as a prospect.
Ryan Poles goes back to the defense in the third round
3rd Round | 64th Pick | Clark Phillips, III - CB - Utah
If you recall, I thought about going corner in the first round. I think corner is a very underrated need of this team as the Chicago Bears only have two that can be counted on - Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. I am not one to think Kindle Vildor can be anything worth while in this league, but he is at least average. As of now, he'd be the third option at corner.
If Ryan Poles does not add any corners in free agency prior to the draft, I fully expect the Bears to select one at some point. I have a few guys in this range who I find to be all about equal. I use tiered rankings and these guys are all in the same tier for me - Clark Phillips, III, DJ Turner, Kyu Blu Kelly and Deonte Banks. I went with Phillips, the guy who has a knack for getting the football. This is something Matt Eberflus highly values in his defensive players.
In 2022, Phillips snagged six footballs for Utah. He has experience lining up in both the slot and the outside. He is better suited for the outside, but I think he'd make a solid scheme fit. I'll leave it up to the coaching staff to decide who should play the outside corner spot and who should play nickel between Phillips and Kyler Gordon. Phillips is quick and does a great job reading the quarterback. He moves his hips well and isn't rigid. If he's available at this point in the draft, he's a no-brainer.
The defensive side of the ball continues to see help for the Chicago Bears
4th Round | 103rd Pick | Colby Wooden, EDGE - Auburn
Ryan Poles continues to bolster the defensive line in this draft. With Myles Murphy on the roster now, Poles needs to find another defensive end with upside. I wanted Zach Harrison here, but he went at the end of the third round. I pivoted to the next guy on my board at this position in Colby Wooden.
I was a little disappointed when Wooden measured in at 6'4" as most draft profiles were projecting him to be 6'5". I know one inch does not sound like a big difference, but we know Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles like their players to be long, athletic and violent on defense. Seeing Wooden at 6'4" might sway Poles to look elsewhere, but I think Wooden should be highly considered here. He is a solid run defender and has proven he has the ability to get to the quarterback.
Wooden might project better as a defensive end in an odd-man front, but I think he has the versatility to play in either defensive front. Wooden has 13 combined sacks over the last two years. He should compete immediately with Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson for that other starting end position. He needs to develop a little more and build up his strength to compete consistently in the NFL, but he looks to have the work ethic and high motor needed to succeed at the next level.
The simulator hated the next pick for the Chicago Bears
4th Round | 133rd Pick | Payne Durham, TE - Purdue
The Senior Bowl helped propel Payne Durham onto many draft boards. He had a great week of practice and performed well in the actual game. I'll admit, I was not as high on him before I saw him in this setting. That said, it is not uncommon for a college team to not take advantage of a player they have, but you might see it in a national game like the East West Shrine Bowl or Senior Bowl.
With the addition of Robert Tonyan, the Chicago Bears don't need to spend high draft capital on a tight end. That said, I think an early Day 3 pick is the sweet spot if Poles wants to add a developmental guy to pair with Tonyan and Cole Kmet. Don't forget, we don't know for sure Kmet will be re-signed for 2024.
Durham makes a great deal of sense to me. He will need time to develop and can do that here in Chicago. He has great size but isn't the most athletic. He showed he is more athletic than his film shows though with some of the catches he made in Mobile, Alabama. He is a solid blocking tight end and will do the dirty work that Luke Getsy likes to see for his running game. He can also be a red zone threat at 6'6" and 250+ pounds.
The Chicago Bears look to another developmental defensive prospect
5th Round | 136th Pick | Brandon Joseph, S - Notre Dame
Eddie Jackson had a rebound year from a takeaway perspective in 2022. He is coming off a foot injury and the Chicago Bears should look to find a developmental replacement for him. Brandon Joseph can be that guy.
Joseph projects as a free safety in the NFL. He's the type of player who loves to read a defense and get his hands on the ball. He will serve best as a player who can freelance a little - similar to Jackson. Who better to learn from than one of the better free safeties in the NFL? Joseph could also step in as we have seen DeAndre Houston-Carson do over the years should Jackson not be able to stay on the field.
In college, Joseph had a career year with Northwestern in 2020. He had six interceptions that year as a red-shirt freshman. His numbers dipped in 2021 and he transfered to Notre Dame to finish out his final year before declaring for the 2023 NFL Draft. I'm not confident that Joseph falls to the Bears at 136 as I have him with an early fourth-round grade and would even consider him in the late third. That said, this is how this mock draft fell and I jumped at the value he brings. Value is something Ryan Poles is making clear to fans and others that he is prioritizing this offseason.
Another prospect seems to fall to the Chicago Bears
5th Round | 148th Pick | Emil Ekiyor, Jr., OG - Alabama
Just like Brandon Joseph, I'm not sold on the idea that Emil Ekiyor, Jr. falls to the fifth round. I have an early-to-mid third-round grade on Eklyor. However, I have seen him all over the place on other analysts' rankings. If he is here, you don't hesitate to take him even if you don't have room for him right away. He could be that good and landing him two rounds later feels like thievery.
Ekiyor projects as either a starting left or right guard. He is scheme versatile and could easily fit into this Luke Getsy offense. He is a physical presence on the field, but can disappear at times. He needs to continue to work on his fundamentals. He can get too low or too high at times, allowing defenders to knock him off balance. That inconsistency is why he won't go earlier in the draft.
When it comes to his game, he is both a solid run-blocker and pass-blocker. He doesn't project to be elite in either area though. He's a guy who could walk onto a team with a bad offensive line and compete to start right away, or he could find himself as a backup, pushing to start -- similar to Braxton Jones last season. For a more realistic option here at pick 148, Alex Forsyth from Oregon or Jaxson Kirkland out of Washington would make sense as interior linemen prospects.
Chicago Bears take two fliers in the seventh round to finish their draft
7th Round | 218th Pick | Mohamoud Diabate, LB - Utah
I have not watched any tape on Mohamoud Diabte. He did not stand out to me while watching film of Utah with Clark Phillips, III. I am taking some notes down from other analysts and will try to look into him more prior to the draft. For now, I look at a linebacker in the seventh round as a guy who can contribute on special teams. Should Ryan Poles want to go with a developmental quarterback late, here is where he could do it. Malik Cunningham is one guy I particuarly like late in these mock drafts.
7th Round | 259th Pick | Travis Dye, RB - USC
Even though he is the last pick in this mock draft, I have seen tape on Travis Dye. Dye had his most productive season in 2021 for the Oregon Ducks. He had 211 carries for 1,271 yards and 16 touchdowns. Dye transfered to USC for the 2022 season. He was just as efficient at USC despite seeing only 145 carries. Dye finished with 884 yards and nine touchdowns. He has a ton of miles on him over his five years of college ball. He's a solid pass-catching back, but he isn't a guy to count on. At best, he could push Trestan Ebner for a practice squad or backend of the roster spot.