On Thursday night, the 2-7 Chicago Bears will compete in their second primetime game in 11 days, where they will be playing host to the 1-7 Carolina Panthers. These two franchises have been tied to one another for months thanks to a monumental trade for the first overall pick in this past NFL Draft. While the Panthers moved up eight spots to draft Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young, the Bears used the added capital to bring in instant starters in Darnell Wright and Tyrique Stevenson while also acquiring Carolina's first-round selection in 2024 and star wide receiver D.J. Moore.
Now, with the Panthers just one of two teams (Arizona Cardinals) to have a worse record than Chicago's, the Bears have an opportunity to win against a young but struggling team while also ensuring that their future first-round pick remains in contention for the first overall selection. Despite some obvious areas of concern, the Panthers have a number of strengths on their roster and will not go down on the road without a fight, so it will be essential for the Bears to complete the following three keys to victory:
The Chicago Bears need to be more efficient through the air
On the official injury report for this week, quarterback Justin Fields is listed as doubtful to play, but according to head coach Matt Eberflus's Wednesday press conference, it is abundantly clear that the team will not be with their starter, leaving the offense in the hands of undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent for the fourth consecutive outing.
Bagent's starting career got off to a hot start with a solid performance in a win versus the Las Vegas Raiders, who have since cleared house by firing both their head coach and general manager, but in recent weeks, the rose-tinted glasses have started to fade, cumulating in a head-scratching four-turnover outing last week in the loss to the New Orleans Saints. Adding in his two interceptions versus the Los Angeles Chargers, Bagent's zero interception performance against the Raiders has since been followed by a slew of turnovers, a problem that needs to be fixed versus the Panthers.
In Bagent's defense, both the Chargers and Saints boast talented defenses, but the Panthers themselves carry a loaded defense that has excelled so far this season, especially against the pass. In terms of air yards allowed per game, Carolina's defense is ranked fifth best, an impressive mark for a younger unit on a team that has struggled so massively elsewhere. Fortunately, the Panthers' rush defense has not been as prolific, currently standing as one of just five groups to allow over 130 yards per game on the ground.
This simple analysis would tell any team to establish the run early against this specific Panthers defense, but for the Bears, this gameplan should be the default, at least until Fields returns to full health. As was the case a year ago, the Bears have been one of the league's premier teams in terms of the offensive rushing attack, and even with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson both missing considerable time, D'Onta Foreman has recently carried the offense to their best success in weeks.
With Herbert officially questionable for Thursday's contest, there is a chance that all three runningbacks are available for the first time in five weeks. If the Bears can establish their identity on the ground early against the Panthers, they could circumvent Carolina's excellent pass defense by flipping the script and leaning on the rushing attack more so than they have since the Raiders game.
Ultimately, to win with any backup quarterback (and even most starters) it is essential to utilize a balanced, complementary offensive attack. If the Bears fall behind early or can't establish a good rhythm due to three-and-outs or turnovers, there will likely be more situations where Bagent has to throw the ball, and the Panthers defense will know it.
The Chicago Bears need to send pressure after Bryce Young
On the other side of the ball, the Bears' defense should be focused on making Bryce Young's night as difficult as possible, mainly by pressuring the rookie quarterback. Like many highly drafted rookies, Young's transition to the NFL has had its ups and downs, but last week, the Indianapolis Colts helped lay out the blueprint on how to beat the former Alabama standout.
Against the Colts, the same team where Eberflus used to serve as defensive coordinator, Young faced a great deal of pressure, and he correspondingly declined in both efficiency and production. Specifically, Indianapolis did a great job of getting to the quarterback on third down, where Young often looked to dump it down to a receiver well short of the yard to gain.
If the Bears can get the Panthers' offense into obvious passing situations, it should be full steam ahead for a revamped defensive line that now features the recently acquired and extended Montez Sweat, who should look to play even more than he did in his debut four days ago.
Currently, Young is one of the five most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL and possesses a 1:1 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. If the Bears can increase their pass rush from recent weeks, they will be able to bring down the quarterback for a loss and potentially create turnovers either via strip sack or by hurried throws and tipped balls turning into interceptions.
If blitzing and winning up front isn't enough against Young, it is also important to note that the quarterback relies heavily on veteran receiver Adam Thielen, a seasoned player that many Bears players have faced thanks to his long tenure with the Minnesota Vikings. Thielen currently accounts for approximately 35% of the team's passing offense, so limiting how many open looks Young can get in that direction would be another way to mess up the quarterback's timing.
The Chicago Bears need to win the turnover battle
Throughout the first half of the season, the Bears' biggest problem as a team has been turnovers. In each of their seven losses, the Bears failed to generate more than two takeaways while giving the ball away twice or more. On the other side, in both of the team's wins this year, the Bears protected the ball and failed to turn it over once while creating multiple defensive takeaways in either game.
Clearly, the turnover margin is a strong indicator of the Bears', or any other team's, chances of victory. Unfortunately, through the early part of the season, the Bears rank dead last in turnover margin at -9, thanks in large part to a league-worst 18 offensive giveaways.
Winning the turnover battle against the Panthers will go a long way to pave the road to victory, but it will be paramount for both sides of the ball to do their job. Offensively, the Bears have to do a better job at protecting the football, especially after a five-turnover outing versus the Saints. As mentioned above, running the football more consistently will potentially provide Bagent with easier opportunities to throw against looser coverage, but other players have to help by holding onto the football. Last week, Moore had a crucial fumble when the Bears were trying to get back into the game, and while the receiver is often sure-handed after the catch, it provides a healthy reminder to the team's offensive skill players to prioritize ball security against the Panthers.
On defense, the Bears have been better at generating turnovers as of late, with seven takeaways over their last five games, but against a younger quarterback in Young, getting the ball back for the offense should be the number one goal. Unfortunately, the Bears' defense will not be at full strength, with Tremaine Edmunds set to miss his second consecutive game, but still, the unit possesses many playmakers who have a nose for the football, especially cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who could potentially help his contract extension cause with a turnover.