It is not a surprise to Chicago Bears fans, but reports this week are that the team plans to stick with Justin Fields and shop the number one overall pick. Many think that there are enough suitors for the team to get a solid return, the question is what would that return be?
There are a few things that could happen over the next coming days and weeks that will impact the top pick. What needs to go the Chicago Bears' way?
5. One quarterback needs to set themselves apart
The NFL combine is huge for breaking up tiers. Scouts have grades on players and a lot of players can be clumped together in similar tiers. Small things such as athletic testing, interviews, and medicals can help teams break these tiers apart.
Most people see the quarterback class as having four top players in a tier. You may hear arguments for Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson as the top of the group. The Chicago Bears would love to see one of these names stand out in all areas and separate themselves from the pack.
Whether it be the interviews, throwing, or testing, whatever it may be, the strong one of these players performs, the more the pick rises. It is one thing when there are four options and they are all close. Sure, you want you preference, but if you do miss out, you still have a fallback you like. If one of these guys is looked at as the cannot miss, top prospect and teams will not sleep well if they pass on him, then you are looking at a much stronger package coming back.
The Chicago Bears like that teams have plenty of choices to find their guy, but over the next week or so, they also need teams to narrow in specifically on their guy.
4. Will Chicago Bears benefit if a quarterback fades out?
On the exact flip side of the recent slide, the Chicago Bears do want someone to stand out, but even more than that it would help if a name or two dropped down. Maybe the size concerns on Bryce Young prove out to be too much. What if he weighs lighter than expected and does not throw this week?
We saw Justin Fields go from everyone's second overall pick in mock drafts to falling out of the top 10. Does the same happen to C.J. Stroud because that offensive system is so easy?
The two names more likely to fall out are Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. Both have serious bust potential. The Chicago Bears would probably be happy if one of these became the no doubt high upside bet, but it would also help if the other just fell on his face and fell down boards.
This is all about supply and demand. If the Texans know they like two quarterbacks, they are out on the number one overall talks. If the Colts know that Chicago and Arizona are not going quarterbacks, they could be in the same boat.
Once those teams are out, Chicago is now looking outside the top five, and teams are also looking and saying that the demand is dropping. If a team like the Panthers falls for Will Levis and knows that Stroud and Young will go in the top five, they could sit tight and feel pretty good. The same can be said for a different team that likes Anthony Richardson. They cannot have teams thinking that they can sit tight and still get a solid option.
If one name stands out as the clear cut guy, one name fades out of this discussion, and one guy is viewed as a consolation, it makes the prize so much more valuable.
3. The Chicago Bears need the Colts and Texans interested
As noted in the last slide, the Colts and Texans actually hold a lot of cards for how this draft will go. First, they are division rivals and they both need quarterbacks. They also are both in the top five. This puts the Chicago Bears in a great spot where they can rely on offers from the Colts and Texans and create a bidding war that keeps them in the top five.
What they cannot afford is one of these teams dropping out. The pressure on the Texans to move from two to one is almost solely on the idea that the Colts will jump them and take their guy. Can they stand seeing their division rival pull that off?
If the Colts move up, it will be to jump the Texans at two. Both are great options for Chicago because they pick up assets and stay in the top five. If both teams see that there are four good quarterbacks and that sitting in the top four ensures them the top two or three guys in that group, they will be sitting tight.
Trades with the Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers at seven, eight, and nine become potential options, but they are much riskier on the Bears' end, and they need to maximize those moves because they are losing out on the top non-quarterback, too. Beyond that, teams from outside the top five will have to go over the top if they know what the Colts are offering. If they know the Colts are sitting tight, they do not have another offer to beat, and they also can pivot to Arizona, knowing a second quarterback would be there.
2. Chicago Bears need free agency to break right
We know that even if Aaron Rodgers changed teams, he will be a starter. We know that Derek Carr is being treated like a starter. So, teams that fill those spots will be out of the musical chairs shuffling. However, the quarterbacks with uncertainty are the names to watch.
Where does Jimmy Garoppolo end up? His status will affect Chicago greatly. If the Houston Texans go with Garoppolo, do they need to trade up, do they even pass on a quarterback at two? If they do pass on quarterback, is there a chance that teams know that Arizona holds all the keys if they cannot get a deal done with Chicago? All you have to do is jump the Colts if you know that Chicago will not go quarterback, and the Texans add a veteran.
Then, there is a team like the Atlanta Falcons. Are they really sold on Desmond Ridder, or are they in the quarterback mix? Do they fix that in free agency? The Bears need Atlanta to not be sold on Ridder, they need Garoppolo to be viewed as a backup, and they need guys like Mitch Trubisky, and Kyle Trask to viewed in the same light. The Chicago Bears may wait for some of those pieces to move to see the entire landscape.
1. Can the Chicago Bears benefit from a wild card team?
We know the usual suspects in terms of trading up for number one, and we know that the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts hold the keys right now. However, there are still some teams who may shoot out of nowhere to make a play.
Remember, the Buffalo Bills did not get to number one, but they did jump up in the first round with two separate trades before nabbing Josh Allen. A team in the 20s is not out of it yet. What about the Washington Commanders? They say they are in on Sam Howell until they are the mystery team who knows that a rookie with Eric Bienemy would work. What about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Do we buy the Kyle Trask hype?
Even the Seattle Seahawks sitting right there at five could tag and trade Geno Smith, and what do you know they are in the mix. Will the Baltimore Ravens find themselves in the top ten after dealing Lamar Jackson? All of these things increase the number of teams in the mix. Another team sniffing around in the mix is what the Bears need to turn to the Colts and Texans force them to pay up, or realize they may miss out on their guy.