The Chicago Bears have three running backs, and all of them have been the lead dog in the rushing attack at one point or another. For the first five weeks of the season, the Bears leaned on Khalil Herbert. After Herbert was injured, the Bears were led by D’onta Foreman.
However, in their week 12 win before the bye week, Roschon Johnson got the majority of the work because Foreman was injured. Still, Herbert was healthy by that point. So, with Foreman getting close to returning, there is a real debate about which back will lead the Bears for the final five games. There are arguments for each.
Pros and Cons to Chicago Bears leading with Khalil Herbert
Khalil Herbert was the first back that the Bears decided to roll with. It may have just been because he was the most familiar with the offense, considering the others were new to the system. Still, he remains the most explosive back by a good bit. His 28.7% breakaway yards rate speaks to how much he is able to add over the top due to his speed.
Herbert has improved in the passing game as well and has been the best in the screen game. He has three catches for 47 yards on screen passes, while Johnson and Foreman combine for 53 yards on nine catches in that area.
The cons to Herbert come down to his health. Since his injury, he has not looked the same. Herbert has 22 rushes for 59 yards in the two games since his return. On the flip side, Roschon Johnson has 16 rushes for 65 yards in that span. It is notable that 16 of those Herbert carries came against Detroit, and he looked so bad that they hardly used him against the Vikings.
Herbert is seeing an overall decline in yards per attempt and success rate compared to last year. One difference could be that he was not seeing nearly as much inside the tackles’ work because he was the change of pace back. The best role for him could be a complementary weapon, and the injury and lack of efficiency could speak to him not being up for this role.
Pros and Cons to Chicago Bears leading with Roschon Johnson
As we noted, Johnson is currently the hot hand of the three. He is better than Herbert over the last two weeks and is much healthier than Foreman. Johnson is also a rookie, so the experience would not only benefit him in the long term, but his development would benefit the Chicago Bears.
Johnson provides exactly what you would expect. He is the best pass protector of the group and has as many pass protection snaps as Formema and Herbert combined. That is despite having fewer snaps overall than both. Johnson averages 1.06 yards per route run, while Herbert is at 1.01, and Foreman is at 0.75.
When you take away screen passes, Johnson has 17 catches for 107 yards, while Herbert has just 11 catches for 56 yards, and Foreman has just six catches for 26 yards. It is obvious that Johnson is better in all passing scenarios. If they want to get him experience on early downs, and he is the best on late downs, what is the debate?
The issue is that he has the lowest yards per rush of the group and the lowest explosive run rate. Some of that could be because 60% of his runs come between the tackles, while Foreman and Herbert are both below 50%.
Do the Bears need a bit more of an explosive element and a threat to take things outside from their leading rusher?
Pros and Cons to Chicago Bears leading with D’onta Foreman
So far this season D’onta Foreman has been the best running back on the Bears. According to SumerSports, he generates the most expected points on his carries, and his success rate is also the highest. Foreman also has the most missed tackles forced of this group.
He brings more explosion than Johnson but can also take on the hits and plow forward a little better than Herbert. The issue is that he is clearly the worst passing-down player. The Bears avoid using him in pass protection, and he allowed as many pressures as Johnson on fewer snaps.
He has the lowest yards per route run and is the worst both on screens and on non-screen plays. Beyond that, he is the one coming back from an injury. Injuries have plagued his career, and injuries are the reason why he is not signed beyond this year. Even Herbert has more team ties to the Bears due to his contract keeping him here next season. What do the Bears get out of playing Foreman more down the stretch?