The Chicago Bears have been a team with plenty of injuries across the roster this season. It has allowed us to see multiple versions of the team. Since the Bears are starting to get healthier, it was a good time to look into some of the splits that the team has with and without these players. Of course, other contexts, such as the opponent and players around them, matter just as much, but these splits are notable and make sense on the field.
5. The Chicago Bears run game has improved with Teven Jenkins
The second Teven Jenkins stepped on the field against the Washington Commanders, their run game improved. You could feel it and see it as the Bears put up 40 points. The stats show that Teven Jenkins has improved the run dramatically this year.
According to RBSDM, the run game was averaging -0.076 expected points per rush without Teven Jenkins. That went up to 0.005 EPA per play with Jenkins. He took a negative and turned it into a positive.
More than that, their success rate was just 39.8% on rushing attempts in their first four weeks of the season. Since then, it is up to 45.1%. This is a significant upgrade. Last year, the Bears rushing attack had a success rate of just 40.9%.
This is the best the run game has ever looked, and it could be getting even better. They just got Braxton Jones back for the past two games, and they are just going to get Justin Fields back this week. Those two are major positives in the run game.
Beyond that, this run game has been this successful riding D’onta Foreman, who was inactive when Fields had control of the offense. The last seven games of the season will be the best rushing attack Chicago has had under Justin Fields.
4. The Chicago Bears' defense looks a lot better with Jack Sanborn than Tremaine Edmunds
The eye test has said that Jack Sanborn is better than Tremaine Edmunds so far this season. To be fair, it is a little more than two games, with Sanborn starting in the MIKE. Also, Sanborn played in this defense last year, where which is new to Edmunds. Also, the opponents and the added health of others on the defense have a say in the defense.
Still, Edmunds was paid to be a game changing free agent, and Sanborn is a low paid UDFA. The eye test should not be this close. The stats test says that Sanborn is better.
When Sanborn is on the field, the Bears have a success rate of 36.2% and an EPA allowed of -0.15. When Tremaine Edmunds is on the field, the Bears have an EPA allowed of 0.12 and a success rate of 44.9%.
When you take Edmunds off of the field, the Bears' success rate goes down 8.6%, and their EPA per play drops 0.03.
When you take Sanborn off of the field, the success rate goes up by 10.8%, and the EPA per play goes up by 0.29. The defense thrives when Sanborn is on the field and when Edmunds is off.
In the first six weeks of the season, the Bears had a success rate allowed of 44.2%. It was 47.9% allowed against the pass and 37.1% against the run. With Sanborn, it is down to 47.3% against the pass, 19.4% against the run, and 38.2% overall.
Overall, the Bears allowed 0.076 expected points per play in the first six weeks, and that is down to -0.0.56 over the last four.
It hurts to see, but it matches the tape. Sanborn has been better.
3. The Chicago Bears have been better against the slot with Kyler Gordon
Kyler Gordon has had a huge bounceback year for the Chicago Bears. He broke his hand in week one and missed weeks two through five. The Bears had issues in the slot at times, but they have been much better since.
In games when Gordon plays, the Bears allow just 6.7 yards per target to the slot. Gordon himself is responsible for 5.7 yards per target. The Bears slot cornerbacks were allowing 8.8 yards per target from weeks two through six. Greg Stroman, the primary slot was at 7.9 YPT allowed.
The Bears were allowing 1.93 yards per snap from the slot in that time. That number is 1.08 when Gordon is on the field, and Gordon is allowing 0.9 yards per snap himself. Stroman was responsible for 1.7 himself.
Lastly, the Bears slot cornerbacks were being targeted every 4.6 snaps without Gordon, and that is up 6.3 snaps with him.
Teams are attacking the slot less because they are not getting nearly as many yards per target or snap. This is because Gordon has been so good.
2. Teams target the Chicago Bears rookie a lot more than Jaylon Johnson
Jaylon Johnson is having a great season. You cannot deny his play has improved, but at the same time, it is a lot easier to function when the cornerback opposite of you is a target magnet.
This season, Jaylon Johnson has been targeted 27 times. The rookie Tyrique Stevenson has been targeted 57 times. Stevenson has allowed 40 catches, a 70% completion rate, while Johnson allowed 15 catches, a 56% completion rate.
Overall, Stevenson allows 7.2 yards per target, 1.57 yards per snap, and a 125.6 passer rating. Johnson is at 5.3 yards per target, 0.51 yards per snap, and a passer rating of 51.8.
What is impressive is that the numbers are even stronger when you focus on week six and beyond, which is when Johnson returned from his injury.
After week six, Stevenson is being 32-45 in coverage, a 71% completion rate. Meanwhile, Johnson 11-19, a 58% completion rate. Johnson is allowing 3.6 yards per target, 0.32 yards per snap, and a passer rating of 43.2.
Meanwhile, Stevenson is allowing a passer rating of 115.2, along with 1.36 yards per snap and 5.8 yards per target.
Stevenson has improved a bit as the defense has played a softer schedule and gotten healthier overall. Still, teams throw at Stevenson a lot more than Johnson, and for good reason. They are getting a couple more yards every time they target one over the other, and there is about a 13% jump in completion rate.
1. The Chicago Bears are much better with Eddie Jackson on the field
This should not be too big of a surprise. However, the defense is better when Eddie Jackson plays compared to when he does not. Unfortunately, he is currently at just 33.6% of the snaps played. That has left Elijah Hicks out there. Hicks has 74.6% of the snaps played, filling in for both Brisker and Jackson.
First, when Jackson is on the field, the Bears allow a 36.6% success rate. When he is off of the field, the number jumps to 43.7%. The Bears' defense allowed -0.01 EPA per play with him on the field and 0.03 EPA per play when he is off of the field.
The numbers are stronger with Hicks. When Hicks sees snaps, the Bears defense allows a 45.3% success rate and 0.04 EPA per play. Meanwhile, that number is 35.7% when he is off of the field.
The combination of not only a healthy Eddie Jackson but also a healthy Jaquan Brisker has a success rate about as low as you will see. Hicks has had issues, but he is a seventh-round rookie; that is not a shock. It is more about the impact the other two can make when they do get on the field together.