There is going to be a lot of debate about the Chicago Bears' decision to trade for Montez Sweat for a while. First, the team is buying at 2-6 and adding a player at the end of his contract. Second, they could have had Chase Young but elected for Sweat instead. There are going to be people on both sides of this.
The reality is that the Bears traded a second-round pick, potentially around pick 40 for Sweat, while the 49ers traded a third-round pick, potentially closer to pick 90 for Young. They are both in the same contract status, but Young is about three years younger. What are the differences that caused the change in price?
4. The Chicago Bears are more committed to Montez Sweat in the long-term, the 49ers have a rental
The Chicago Bears bought, but it is clear that this is a long-term move. Ryan Poles had a bad free agency period, and teams rarely let players with the caliber of Sweat make it to free agency. So, Poles figured that he would rather trade for someone now and then pay them what he would have wanted to pay them in free agency rather than hoping they make it to free agency only to see the franchise tag applied or something like that.
So, for the Bears, it is a long-term play. For the 49ers, this is a run at the Super Bowl. They have the roster, but it hit a lull with three straight losses. They have been at the doorstep in recent years and needed to get over the hump. If Chase Young leaves in free agency, they will be just fine. Teams may have anticipated that Young is more likely to leave via free agency of two, which is why Chicago had to pay more, knowing they have the longer-term asset.
3. The Chicago Bears paid more because Montez Sweat has fewer injury concerns
This one is pretty obvious. Chase Young tore his ACL in 2021. That caused him to miss most of the 2022 season, and he came into 2023 with major question marks. Through three seasons Young played 1,425 snaps. Meanwhile, Sweat played 1,953 snaps over his first three seasons. It is clear that they are going for durability when they are choosing Sweat over Young.
However, it is also worth noting that when Young does play, he plays more. Sweat has played 64% of the snaps, 66%, 69%, 70%, and 69% over the five years of his career. When Young is playing, he is playing 78%, 80%, 65%, and 84% of the snaps. This year, he is playing 15% more often than Montez Sweat. When you think that Young is three years younger and plays a heavier workload when he is healthy, it is hard to completely trade off the difference in picks just because Young tore his ACL and did not show much in the 2022 season. He has shown enough in 2023 and is young enough that you would think his trade value would be closer to Sweat.
2. Chase Young is a better pass rusher
When the two are on the field, Chase Young is the better pass rusher. Young has five sacks this season and 14 in his career, while Sweat has 6.5 this year and 35.5 in his career. The flashes of upside are there with Young more than Sweat.
This year, Sweat has 27 pressures, while Young has 38. Sweat has a 7.7 pass rush production score, per PFF, while Young is at 9.4. Also, Young has an 18.4% pass rush win rate, while Sweat is at 10.6%. The other time that they were on the field together, Montez Sweat had a 10.2% win rate, while Chase Young was at 11.6%. When Chase Young was a rookie, he had a 10.5% win rate, while Sweat was 9.6%.
These scores make out who these players are. Young is ascending up, and Sweat is the stable force who gets what he gets. The Chicago Bears elected for the consistency of Sweat rather than the potential upside in Chase Young.
1. The Chicago Bears got the better run defender
While Chase Young brings more upside because of his age and his pass-rushing ability, it is fair to say that Montez Sweat is the better run-defender. Sweat has always been a good run defender. When Young was a rookie, he had a 7.2% stop rate, per PFF, while Young was at 6.8%. In 2021, Chase Young was slightly better, but this year, it has not been close.
Sweat has an 83.7 run defense grade, and Young is at 58.1. Sweat had a 7% stop rate, and Young is at 4.6%. You can see it on tape as well, and the big issue is gap discipline. Sweat maintains his lanes and holds up the edge with power. Meanwhile, Chase Young is looking to sneak into the backfield and make the bigger plays. It takes him out of the rush lane and can break bigger runs. It can also take the defense out of playing sound, team defense.
These are the subtle differences between Young and Sweat. Young has the upside and potential, but beyond the injury comes effort issues and a lack of engagement on every play, as well as team buy-in. On the flip side, Sweat does not have the ceiling of Young, but you know what you are getting, and he is worth extending right now. With Young, the 49ers, and most teams acquiring him would want to see his buy-in on a new team first.