Justin Fields fumbles are an overblown narrative used by many Chicago Bears haters

I think it is well-known by now that I am a Justin Fields supporter and believer. It should also be known that I am of the mindset that if Ryan Poles (or Kevin Warren should Poles be fired -- he won't be) decides to move on from Fields, I'm perfectly fine with it. Caleb Williams (and Drake Maye) is an amazing prospect and selecting him first overall wouldn't be a bad thing. I just prefer the idea of Marvin Harrison, Jr. paired with DJ Moore, Justin Fields, and likely another top-10 prospect from the 2024 NFL Draft. Trading down again could also be an option, but it likely means no Harrison.

When we talk about Justin Fields on social media, there are usually two sides that speak up -- not those who fall in the in-between like myself. There are those who believe Justin Fields can do no wrong. They come up with excuses for every little thing when someone points out a flaw or mistake Justin Fields made. Then, on the flip side, there are those who think Fields is trash and nothing more than a glorified running back.

The Chicago Bears have a decision to make soon about Justin Fields

Not long ago, after the first Minnesota Vikings game, I posted a tweet that stirred up a great deal of conversation. It was discussed on local sports radio and shared multiple times. The tweet was simply the stats of Justin Fields over his last 17 games (excluding the half he played against Minnesota).

Justin Fields has been inconsistent, but has shown you can win with him

The tweet was to point out he has played well enough to refute wins being a QB stat. I'd argue that for almost all quarterbacks because wins are a team stat and partly a coaching stat. One thing I left out (I only get so many characters) was his fumbles. Naturally, I was called out for it. I argued about how (at the time) although he had 32 fumbles, he only had lost nine. He's now fumbled it 35 times and has lost 12. That wasn't good enough for many though and it got me thinking. How many of these fumbles were on him and how many of them were detrimental?

I set out to find out by tracking every one of Justin Fields' fumbles. Then, I went back and watched the film to see which ones were truly his fault and no matter whose fault, were the fumbles detrimental (or negative) to the team. I had a little bias already knowing he hadn't lost many of his fumbles and clearly I'm a fan of his, but I tried to remain objective. I'll have a podcast (subscribe so you don't miss it) releasing next week at The Halas Huddle with more details and conversation surrounding the matter, but here is a quick breakdown of the results. These findings include the most recent win over the Vikings.

To date, Justin Fields has the following stats regarding fumbles:

Total Career Fumbles: 36
Total Career Fumbles Lost: 12

2023 Fumbles: 7
2023 Fumbles Lost: 5

2022 Fumbles: 16
2022 Fumbles Lost: 2

2021 Fumbles: 12
2021 Fumbles Lost: 5

Chicago Bears were not negatively impacted by all of Justin Fields fumbles

There are still five games left and 2023 will likely see more fumbles from Justin Fields. I'm sure he will hit double digits as he has each of his two seasons prior. The one difference this year is that he's lost nearly every fumble, whereas in 2022, Fields only lost 12.5%. In 2021 he lost nearly half. Great, he has only lost 33.33% of his fumbles, but not all fumbles -- even fumbles lost -- are negative. Wait. You are thinking, how can this be true? Well, let's give a couple of quick examples. To hear more, check back next week for the podcast (I'll add the link here after it's live).

Of Justin Fields' 36 fumbles, I gave 21 of them a negative grade. Even though he only lost 12, some were sacks that lost yardage and led to punts. That's still a negative on Justin Fields. However, as I talk about on the Halas Huddle podcast, context has to be included when it comes to stats. Stats and analytics alone are great. Film study and breakdowns alone are great too. However, the best analysis is always a true combination of both approaches. Context is key.

Of those 21 negative fumbles, eight are assigned or at least partially assigned to another player. Wait, how can that be? Well, some of them should be just as much, if not more to blame on the running back while making an exchange at the mesh point (the point when the QB and RB meet for a handoff). Others are just as much, if not more to blame on the center. On the podcast, I discuss how many should be on Sam Mustipher, who also had snapping issues. This team needs a good center as soon as possible. Some fumbles went out of bounds despite a large gain.

To recap, when someone throws out 36 fumbles as a negative, that's not enough context and it's overblown. Remember, only 12 of those have been lost and only 21 were "negative" -- only 13 being solely on Justin Fields. I will say, that a couple were in the fourth quarter and arguably cost the Chicago Bears a chance to win the game, but many quarterbacks have that on their resume. Ball security is an issue to be concerned about, but the narrative that many are throwing out there is just completely overblown.