The Chicago Bears are heavy underdogs against the Detroit Lions. However, there are reasons to believe that the team can compete. They are getting healthier across the board at the right time, and we could see how good this team was supposed to be. Also, there are some matchups where the team could have an advantage.
3. Are the Chicago Bears able to run on the Detroit Lions?
If there has been one thing to note positively about the Chicago Bears offense it is that it has consistently been able to run the ball. They always have a good ground game because of Justin Fields, but the addition of Teven Jenkins in his absence has kept them moving on the ground.
Chicago ranks sixth in expected points added per rush and sixth in success rate when rushing. Detroit's defense ranks 12th in EPA and 15th in success rate, so they have a decent run defense. However, that number may be inflated by who they have played.
The Chargers, Raiders, Buccaneers, Panthers, Packers, Falcons, and Chiefs all rank below 20th in EPA per play as rushing attacks. These units are all below 17th in rushing success rate.
They have faced two rushing attacks with a high EPA per play. The Ravens, who scored 38 against Detroit, and the Seahawks, who scored 37 against Detroit.
Seattle ranks sixth in EPA per play but 20th in success rate because of the boom/bust ability of Ken Walker. The Ravens are the best in EPA and third in rushing. So, the Bears rushing offense will be the second toughest the Lions have faced all season. On paper, the run defense is not that great, so maybe the stats are not telling the full story. Maybe the Bears have serious success on the ground.
2. The Detroit Lions could struggle against the Chicago Bears' heavier looks
The Detroit Lions are a team that has a better-than-expected pass defense. The main reason is that they are equipped to defend the run while playing against 11-personnel looks. It is because they have heavy linebackers who do not require extra bodies.
However, this can bite the Lions. When teams go heavy against them, and they have to bring in extra linebackers, they are not good in the passing game.
The Lions rank 22nd in EPA against 12-personnel and 25th against 13-personnel. That is two and three tight ends, respectively. They also rank 30th against 21-personnel, which is two running backs and one tight end.
If the Chicago Bears can get Khari Blasingame back, they rank 8th in EPA when they have a second back on the field, and that would be a mismatch against the Lions.
Still, this has to mean big games not only from Cole Kmet but also from Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis. These two both had their snaps increase after the Chase Claypool trade.
When the Seahawks scored 37 against Detroit, Noah Fant had 56 yards, Colby Parkinson had 41 yards, and Will Dissly had 35. When the Ravens scored 38 against Detroit, Mark Andrews had 65 yards and two touchdowns, but Patrick Ricard added 36 yards in the passing game. These teams ran their tight ends and fullbacks out there and beat the Lions. The Bears have the personnel to do this.
1. D.J. Moore should have success against the Detroit Lions secondary
Detroit is good against the pass, but a lot of it comes down to limiting secondary threats. A lot of the bigger names have had success.
Keenan Allen just had 11 catches for 175 yards against them. Zay Flowers had four catches for 75 yards, Chris Godwin had six for 77, and even Adam Thielen had 11 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. Beyond that, Romeo Doubs had 95 yards on nine catches, DK Metcalf had 75 yards on six catches, and Tyler Lockett added two touchdowns on eight catches.
One thing to note is that guys like Godwin, Allen, Flowers, Lockett, and Thielen move in and out of the slot a lot. DJ Moore does not play in there as much as some of them, but the Bears do a good job of moving him around to get him in favorable matchups. Against the Lions, you can find them.
Cameron Sutton was a big free-agent addition. He is a sound tackler and helps in the run game, but they are asking him to defend a lot of these number-one guys, and he is having issues. Moore will see a lot of Sutton on Sunday.
Still, that is better than the team putting Jerry Jacobs on Moore. Moore should have advantages in this secondary. With Justin Fields back, look for him to have a big game.