The Chicago Bears beat the Carolina Panthers 16-13, and the win was not all that impressive. So, it brings plenty of questions that need to be answered over the seven weeks that will close out the year. What can fans look for after the win over Carolina?
10. What makes Justin Fields an upgrade for the Chicago Bears?
You have probably heard about the difference that Tyson Bagent has brought to the Chicago Bears offense. Bagent is 2-2, while Fields is 1-5 with the team. Bagents gets the football out quicker, and he takes fewer sacks. However, it is an obvious decision that the team has to go back to Fields once he gets healthy.
The reason is that Fields is much more of a playmaker. Fields has 27.7% of his passes go 10 yards downfield or further, and that is with 16% going 20 yards down the field.
Bagent only had 8% go 20 yards downfield, and 25.2% go 10 yards downfield. On passes ten yards down the field or further, Bagent completes 44%, while Fields is at 47%. However, the difference is in the playmaking.
Fields has six touchdowns and four interceptions on those passes, while Bagent has two touchdowns and six interceptions. Fields averages 11.2 yards per attempt, and Bagent is at 7. Fields has a 16% big-time throw rate and a 2% turnover-worthy throw rate, per PFF. Bagent is at 5% in big-time throws and 19% in turnover-worthy throws at those same passes.
When Justin Fields holds the ball for 2.5 seconds, he averages 10.1 yards per attempt and has a big-time throw rate of 3.8 with a turnover-worthy throw rate of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Bagent is at 1.2% in big-time throws and 7.3% in turnover-worthy plays.
When Tyson Bagent has to hold onto the ball or throw it down the field, he cannot create lie Fields, and he puts the ball in harm's way more. The Chicago Bears are going with the bigger play potential.
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9. How is Montez Sweat progressing with the Chicago Bears?
The Chicago Bears added Montez Sweat right before the trade deadline, and he was able to play two quick games for the team. Sweat came in on a Tuesday and played that weekend. Then, the Bears played a Thursday game, so he has not had a normal schedule week with the team yet.
Still, in the first game, he played 65% of the defensive snaps, and against Carolina, he was bumped up to 73%. The move Bears saw Sweat make a few impact plays both weeks, even though he has not recorded a sack.
He has ten pressures in two games, with seven coming last week. Three of the seven pressures were quarterback hits. In the last two games, he leads the Chicago Bears in pass rush win rate and pass rush production, per PFF. His win rate is 12.3% in two weeks. For comparison, Yannic Ngakoue is at 4.5% this year and 1.6% all season. Even Sweat was at 10.6% in the first eight games, so he looks to be as good, if not better, since coming to Chicago.
Sweat has also pushed DeMarcus Walker into a more versatile role. He was able to sub out Yannick Ngakoue on early downs and step in for Andrew Billings on some passing downs. It improves the depth in a big way.
Now, with the mini-bye, there is a good chance that Sweat will be well-adjusted and playing his best.
8. How much of an upgrade is Braxton Jones for the Chicago Bears?
Braxton Jones left after week two with a neck injury and did not return until week nine. It gave us a long look at Larry Borom and we learned quickly that he was not going to push Braxton Jones to keep that starting job.
PFF grades are not everything, but it is a good way to show the difference between these two players. In pass protection, Braxton Jones has an 82.7 grade and 97 pass efficiency score. Meanwhile, Larry Borom is at 48.6 in grade and 93.7 in pass efficiency. The difference is pretty glaring.
More than that, Borom has a 50.3 run-blocking grade, and Braxton Jones at 57.1.
Jones is much better than Larry Borom. He had a pretty easy matchup against the Panthers, but we have seen Borom lose to edge rushers who hardly have any pressures.
Jones played 74% of the snaps in his first game back but played 100% on Thursday. He should be a huge upgrade moving forward.
7. Is the increase in snaps for Gervon Dexter a sign of things to come?
Gervon Dexter played 29 snaps on Thursday. While it was not the most of his career, it was the highest rate of his carer. He played 48.3% of the snaps, the highest since the Washington game when he played 47.1%.
Dexter had two pressures, the second most of his career, behind the Washington game. Still, after the Washington game, he had one of the lowest snap counts of his career against Minnesota. A week before the Bears win against Carolina, he played just 22.2%, the second-lowest rate of his career.
So, will this game lead to more playing time, or will it remain inconsistent? It will probably remain inconsistent. The Bears clearly do not trust Dexter as a run defender.
He has 163 pass rush snaps and 78 run defense snaps. So, he defends the run on just 32.4 of the snaps he plays. They are trying to keep him away from those situations.
Dexter has played over 40% of the snaps, and three of them were the Bears wins. If the Bears have a lead in the second half, Dexter will play. If they do not, he will not. That is how you have to expect things to stand moving forward.
6. How will the Chicago Bears mix in Khalil Herbert?
The Chicago Bears will have an interesting decision to make at running after their mini-bye. The Bears almost activated Khalil Herbert for the Panthers game, and he practiced all week. With the extra time off it is clear that Herbert is going to be healthy for week 11.
The issue is that D’onta Foreman has been excellent. He is coming off of two strong games when he carried the workload with 41 rushes for 163 yards. When Herbert was healthy, Foreman was inactive. Still, there is no way the Bears can go back to that, right? Who starts, and who handles more work?
Roschon Johnson is a rookie who has started to get more work in recent weeks after his concussion. More than that, he is far and away the best pass protector and the best pass catcher of the three backs.
It is starting to become clear that the Chicago Bears will come out of the bye with a three-man committee. The split between Herbert and Foreman will be a must-watch.
5. Has Kyler Gordon found his role with the Chicago Bears?
After hurting his hand in week one it was looking like we may never get to see whether Kyler Gordon was able to take a step forward in year two. Gordon moved into the slot full-time, and it should have made him more impactful.
Five weeks into the year, we have not seen that. Finally, Gordon returned in week six. He has played well, but Thursday was arguably the best game of his career.
Gordon had eight tackles, and six were stops, per PFF. Gordon has been much more impactful as a run defender and pass rusher by sticking in the slot full-time.
He has also been much better in coverage. On Thursday, he spent a lot of his night on Adam Thielen, the Panthers' top target. Thielen had his lowest yards per target of the year. It is starting to look like we have an answer and that Kyler Gordon is much better this year, sticking in the slot.
4. How does Equanimeous St. Brown impact the Chicago Bears WRs?
The Chicago Bears brought back Equanimeous St. Brown, who played 28 snaps. The impact was mainly felt by Tyler Scott, who was asked to step up in the absence of St. Brown. Scott played 28 snaps as the duo split the work.
Still, this was a pretty big drop from Scott, who was playing over 50% of the snaps in four straight games and saw that drop to 39% overall. The week prior he was at 59%.
Now, the question is, will this change continue? The thought would be that St. Brown will not split with Scott and will slowly take over for Scott.
Scott brings something as a downfield target, and he has had four carries in the last four weeks. However, St. Brown brings a lot more as a blocker. This is important not only for the run game but the screen game and the Bears have learned on both in recent weeks.
Look for Scott to see his snaps slip as the Bears get run-heavy in November and December.
3. What is wrong with Jaquan Brisker?
Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon have been two ships passing in the night. For all of the progress Gordon made after a poor rookie season, we have seen Brisker struggle after his strong rookie year.
It does not help that Brisker had left four of the first five games for some reason or another due to injury. He was a major part of the issue in coverage, and he eventually sat out weeks eight and nine with a mysterious concussion or illness type of injury.
Brisker returned in week ten and was rusty to start. He missed a tackle and gave up a couple of big completions in coverage. He finished strong, but overall, the game was poor. It has been hard to find a solid overall performance from Brisker. Will he get back to his rookie season ways for the final month or two?
2. Are the Chicago Bears too predictable with their personnel?
The Chicago Bears like to run out of their heavy personnel, but at some point it may start to get too predictable. For example, the team had Marcedes Lewis on the field for 20 snaps on Thursday. The Bears ran the football on 16 of those snaps.
That is an 80% chance of a run when Lewis is on the field. To be fair, it has not been this pronounced all season. However, the Bears do run the ball on 69% of the snaps that Lewis plays.
On the flip side, when Robert Tonyan is on the field, they only run the ball 43% of the time. So, the snaps with Lewis on the field and Tonyan on the sideline are pretty blatant runs.
Can the Chicago Bears find a way to mix this up?
1. Has Jack Sanborn been better than Tremaine Edmunds for the Chicago Bears?
It is hard to ignore that the defense has been improving in recent weeks. Some of it has to do with getting players back, but at the same time, this is when the biggest free agent signing of the offseason has been out.
You can argue who has been better, but the fact that UDFA Jack Sanborn has stepped in for Tremaine Edmunds, and the difference has not been noticeable or has been better for the Bears is alarming.
Per PFF, Sanborn has been better. In the last three games, Sanborn has a 76.3 PFF grade, with 70.2 in run defense and 76 in coverage. Tremaine Edmunds was 53.1 overall in the first eight weeks. He's at 56.5 in run defense and 55.8 in coverage.
Sanborn has a 13.6% run stop rate, and Edmunds is at 5% in the first eight weeks. Edmunds has allowed 6.9 yards per target, and Sanborn is at 6.6. To be fair, Sanborn is allowing 1.1 yards per snap, and Edmunds is at 0.77
Still, beyond the snaps, it is clear which player has been better on tape. It is Sanborn. What happens if Edmunds returns and the defense gets worse?