When the Chicago Bears take on the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football, it looks like a game that could go either way on paper. While you can see a 3-8 record and a 6-5 record and think that one team has an advantage, there are reasons to believe the Bears have a chance, and that is why they are just three-point underdogs on the road.
Where do the Bears have an advantage, and where could they struggle against the Minnesota Vikings?
Reason 3 Chicago Bears will win: The Bears are getting healthy, the Minnesota Vikings are not
The Vikings banked some wins early, and even have been 2-1 in their last three games, but things are not trending in the right direction for them. We know that they have survived withotu Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, but can that consistently last? More than that, they are starting to lose other pieces.
Marcus Davenport has been out for a while. In more recent weeks the Vikings have lost Jordan Hicks, Dean Lowry, and Akyleb Evans. Evans has a chance to play, but he has not practiced, and he is listed as questionable. Khyris Tonga was going to step in for Dean Lowry, but even he is questionable for this game.
The Vikings are losing players each week, while the Bears keep getting healthier. The team added Montez Sweat, they got Tremaine Edmunds back, and their secondary will be looking to start and finish a game together for the third time all season, and the third time in a row.
The same can be said with the four core pieces of the offensive line. Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, and Braxton Jones are all healthy to join rookie Darnell Wright. Lastly, this will be the second game that Justin Fields is healthy.
One team keeps getting players back, one keeps losing them. At some point the Vikings will finish how the Bears started, and we may see a healthier Bears team finish strong.
Chicago Bears will lose reason 3: Head Coach Matt Eberflus cannot beat division rivals
This one is pretty obvious and it is fair why fans would be nervous about this matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Matt Eberflus is not a good head coach and has not shown any reason to think he would be in the nearly two seasons he has been a coach.
The Bears are 0-9 in the division. He cannot beat any of the teams he knows best. They are 0-16 against teams with a winning record. The Vikings have a winning record and are in the division, so Eberflus is in trouble. Matt Eberflus is 2-11 when games are decided by one score. To be fair, he is 4-12 otherwise, so it is not like he wins the non-close games either, but there is nothing you can point to that says he has the coaching advantage.
Eberflus will be calling the defense and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell will call the offense for his team. This matchup between head coaches will be put on full display all game, and Bears fans know that even if their roster looks better on paper, Minnesota will stay in it.
Chicago Bears will win reason 2: Bears can make Minnesota Vikings one-dimensional
You can say what you want about the Chicago Bears defense. One thing that they can do is shut down the run. The addition of Andrew Billings and TJ Edwards has changed things in the run game. When you add that Montez Sweat is now setting the edge, the unit is better than ever.
They currently rank third in success rate allowed, and fourth in EPA per play allowed. This is a good unit. When you look at the Vikings, they are not great at running the football. The rank 15th in success rate, but they rank 28th in EPA, showing that they do not get much boom from their run game.
When you look at their interior offensive line it is clear that the Bears have the advantage. The Vikings can try to run the ball, but it may not lead to much success.
Plus, the Vikings could see some mismatches in the passing game. However, the Bears' second is now healthier than ever. Also, if the Bears can make the Vikings one-dimensional and stuff the run with their front, they can drop their linebackers into coverage and add more bodies.
When you add in that the Bears should be able to run the ball on the Vikings front the Bears do have a chance to control the pace.
Chicago Bears will lose reason 2: Brian Flores can shut down Justin Fields
Another mismatch in favor of the Minnesota Vikings is defensive coordinator Brian Flores. As we noted, the defense is down a lot of bodies. That has not mattered to Flores all season when you consider he has been rebuilding this defense on the fly.
Flores sends complicated looks in coverage and puts the quarterback in tough spots where he has to think quick. He will stack the line with eight, and then drop or rush any of them to create pressure.
Despite the issues with talent, the Vikings rank 10th overall in defensive EPA allowed. They blitz 47% of the time, which leads the league. The next highest is 40%, and the third highest is 38%, nearly 10% less.
Justin Fields struggled the first time these two teams played and got injured while scrambling for his life due to confusion. Fields had time to learn from his mistakes, but Flores is the master. Can he avoid the key turnovers?
Chicago Bears will win reason 1: Justin Fields is still better than Joshua Dobbs
Justin Fields may or may not be the franchise guy, but he is still better than Joshua Dobbs. This sounds insane when you consider what Dobbs has done this season, but most of that is perception-based. Fields was supposed to be better and is disappointing while there were no expectations for Joshua Dobbs this year and he is now surprising many.
Still, this year Fields has a 93.3 passer rating and averages 5.59 adjusted net yards per attempt. On the flip side, Dobbs has an 84.7 passer rating, and 5.28 ANY/A. Fields has 12 touchdowns in seven games, Dobbs has 12 touchdowns in 10 games.
It is fair to point out that Dobbs is averaging 6.41 ANY/A for Minnesota with a 94.4 passer rating. He also started hot in Arizona before falling off. For as much as he came into those spots cold, defenses were cold because they had no tape to prepare for.
In his first four games with Arizona he averaged 8.19 ANY/A, with a 99.4 passer rating, even better than Minnesota. However, in the following four games he was down to 4.27 ANY/A with a 65.5 passer rating. He has been known to get figured out over time.
Lastly, Fields is just now playing his best football. It makes sense when you consider his line is healthier, and the playmakers look better than ever. In the three games prior to his injury and the one game after his return he is at a 116.5 passer rating with nine touchdowns to two interceptions. Even with the hot run that Dobbs is on, the current run Fields is on actually is better. Do not be surprised if Dobbs comes down to earth, and Fields keeps ascending.
Chicago Bears will lose reason 1: Can the Bears get any pressure on Joshua Dobbs?
The key to this game will be whether or not the Bears get pressure on Joshua Dobbs. In his first four games with the Cardinals he was sacked just six times, but in the final four games he was sacked 11 times. Dobbs has only been sacked six times in the three games with the Vikings so far, but we know that this can turn quickly for Dobbs.
However, one reason he may stay more upright with the Vikings is their tackle play. Christian Darrisaw is easily one of the top five left tackles in the NFL and Brian O’Neill could not get out of a top ten list when you run the right tackles. Both are having excellent seasons, which is helping keep this team afloat.
The Bears added Montez Sweat, who will push Brian O’Neill, but he will not dominate. Meanwhile. Darrisaw will dominate Yannick Ngakoue. If the Bears cannot get pressure up the middle, Joshua Dobbs will have time to sit in the pocket and wait for things to open up. If Dobbs has time, the mismatch between Eberflus and O’Connell will get even bigger. The Bears are the worst in the NFL at generating pressure, so this could be a big issue that costs them the game.