When the Chicago Bears take on the Carolina Panthers, it will be a matchup of two of the worst teams in the NFL. The only reason so many people will watch this game is because it will be on national TV. While the Bears only have one more win than the Panthers, they should be expected to beat the Panthers pretty soundly on Thursday. Here is why.
3. The Carolina Panthers are limping into their matchup at the Chicago Bears
The Carolina Panthers are not one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL, so any sort of injury can really hurt this team. They have already lost guys like Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn, and Xavier Woods. Then, on Sunday, they lost D.J. Chark, CJ Henderson, and Brian Burns. None of them practiced on Monday. Since the game is on Thursday, it will be hard to see any of them coming back. A roster that was already bad just got worse.
The Panthers played Dicapriao Bootle at cornerback with Horn and Henderson out. If you have never heard of him before last week, you are not alone. If D.J. Moore cannot have a strong game against Bootle, the Bears will be in trouble.
Brian Burns is the Panthers' best edge rusher by far. It sounds like he will be out Sunday, which will give Darnell Wright an easier matchup for the first time in a long time. Beyond losing Burns, both Yetur Gross-Matos and Justin Houston are on the IR.
Burns has 21 pressures this season, Justin Houston has 10, and Gross-Matos has just nine. Still, with these guys out, the next edge rushers are Amare Barno, with four pressures, and DJ Johnson, who has one pressure. If the Bears cannot protect the quarterback against Barno and Johnson on Thursday, they have serious issues.
With DJ Chark out, they would be asking a lot more from Terrace Marshall. Chark is only averaging 0.89 yards per route run this year, which is not strong, but Marshall is at 0.74, which is even worse.
The Chicago Bears are starting to get healthier with Braxton Jones and Eddie Jackson back. Plus, they added Montez Sweat. They are the better team right now and cannot lose to so many backups.
2. The Chicago Bears can run the football, the Carolina Panthers cannot
The Chicago Bears offense has been dysfunctional at times, but you cannot deny that this team can run the football. They currently rank fifth in expected points added per rush, and they rank sixth in success rate, with 43.8% of their rush attempts being successful. On the flip side, the Panthers run defense is bad. They rank 32 in EPA per play and success rate. The Panthers allow a successful run on 45.7% of their attempts, and the next worst is 44.8%. They are far and away the worst run defense in the NFL.
The last run defense the Bears played that was this bad was the Raiders, who allowed 44.7% of their attempts to be successful. Chicago won with ease.
Then, on defense, the Chicago Bears rank 4th in success rate allowed on the ground at 33.5%. They are third in EPA per play. The Panthers offense ranks 20th in success rate on the ground, at 37.3%, and they rank 28th in EPA per play. If the Bears are successful at around 45%, and the Panthers are just 35%, the Bears should have a pretty significant edge here. It is not like Bryce Young can win the game with his arm, and the Panthers losing DJ Chark hurts that. If both teams lean to the run on a short week, Chicago has a huge advantage.
1. The Chicago Bears need to move up in the standings
If there is one game that the Chicago Bears had to circle as a must-win, this is it. They have the Carolina Panthers first-round pick. They knew the pick would be bad, but they did not know it would be this valuable to them. The Panthers have a real shot to pick first overall when you consider they are 0.5 games behind Arizona in the standings. Arizona has not had their bye weeks, and they are starting Kyler Murray moving forward, which should net a win or two.
The loser of this game may enter the driver's seat for the first overall pick. The Chicago Bears would like to pick first overall, but the good news is that they can keep winning and still do that. A lot of Bears fans want their team to lose to improve draft stock, but this week, all fans will be rooting for the win.
A win improves the Bears' draft stock and keeps them on track for the number one overall pick. A loss does not hurt, but if they know Carolina is in the cellar, they can continue to focus on winning and not worry about draft position with their own pick. A loss to Carolina should mean big changes to look to the future and potentially keep losing. This game will set the stage for the rest of the season.